Daily NHL betting guide: March 11
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Friday, March 11
Model’s Picks
Record: 60-51
Units: +3.24
ROI: +2.92%
Vegas Golden Knights (@ PIT)
The Golden Knights are coming off of an embarrassing loss in Buffalo last night but get a chance to “bounce back” right away tonight in Pittsburgh. The Penguins haven’t been that great since the start of January, ranking 14th in the NHL in 5v5 xGF% (51.35), the Golden Knights are eighth (53.56) over the same stretch.
The biggest concern for the Golden Knights tonight is the injuries, both Robin Lehner and Reilly Smith were sent back to Vegas yesterday, leaving them without seven lineup regulars on Friday. All of that is already factored into the line, as they’re +158 road underdogs. The model sees a surplus of value on Vegas tonight, making it enough to recommend, even with the injuries.
1 Unit Bet: VGK +158
Yaremchuk’s Picks
YaremchuYaremchuk’s Pick – Minnesota puckline vs Columbus (+125)
The Blue Jackets had plane issues and had to stay an extra night in New York after their loss to the Islanders last night. The Wild also played last night, beating the Detroit Red Wings in a high-scoring affair. The Wild struggled a little bit in late February, but I think they might be starting to get going a little bit and I’m expecting them to play better defensively after allowing five goals last night. I’m also playing the Jets money line at +105 against the Islanders. Both of these teams played last night and they both won. The reason I like the Jets is that they played Eric Comrie last night and that means Connor Hellebuyck will likely be getting the start tonight. He hasn’t been good lately, but I’m comfortable taking a chance on him getting going eventually.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Bryan Rust over 0.5 assists (-120)
Not a great payout, but it’s a good matchup for the Penguins who get to play a Golden Knights team that doesn’t have Robin Lehner and just lost to the Sabres last night. Rust has hit this mark in four of his last five games and has a total of five assists in that span.