Daily NHL betting guide: March 17
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, March 17
Model’s Picks
Record: 62-53
Units: +3.78
ROI: +3.29%
Recommended Bets
St. Louis Blues (vs. PIT)
It’s difficult not to like the Blues as home underdogs (+105). They have the eighth-best home record (20-7-3) in the league and average the fourth-most goals per game (3.8) on home-ice. Robert Thomas (illness) isn’t ready to go but the Blues will get a boost with Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) back in the lineup.
1 Unit Bet: STL +105
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Columbus Blue Jackets (vs. WSH)
The Blue Jackets had a terrific performance last night in Ottawa but that’s what concerns me on Friday. They’re on a back-to-back, with Joonas Korpisalo projected to start against a Capitals team that is playing arguably their best hockey of the season right now. Washington has won five of their last six while averaging 4.2 goals for and 2.7 goals against per game.
Vegas Golden Knights (vs. FLA)
We avoided a Vegas loss on Tuesday and I’m sticking with that formula tonight. The model rightly sees value on them as +160 home underdogs but with so many bodies missing, including Robin Lehner, they are struggling mightily right now. They’ve given up a combined 18 goals in their last three games, not the recipe you’re looking for heading into a meeting with the highest scoring team in the NHL.
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Carolina moneyline vs Toronto (-115)
The Leafs are overpriced here. It’s simple as that. The Canes are one of the best teams in the league and while their record on the road isn’t as strong as their record at home, they’re going up against a Leaf’s squad that’s missing their best player and will be starting an inexperienced goalie. I think Carolina should handle Toronto just fine. The Hurricanes are coming off a loss but were on a four-game winning streak before that. They’re playing good hockey right now.