Daily NHL betting guide: March 25
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Friday, March 25
Model’s Picks
Record: 64-58
Units: +1.49
ROI: +1.22%
Recommended Bets
NYR/PIT OVER 5.5 (-120)
Igor Shesterkin gave up 4+ goals in just three of his first 37 games but has matched that in his last five games. He’s allowed a combined 16 goals (.878 SV%) over that stretch, so Friday might be the rare night to consider a Rangers over bet. Additionally, the Penguins’ offence has been very good recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in March.
1 Unit Bet: NYR/PIT OVER 5.5 (-120)
Yaremchuk’s Picks
YYaremchuk’s Pick – Colorado -1.5 vs Philadelphia (-150)
A strong night means it’s been back-to-back profitable days! Tonight, I’m all over this Colorado vs Philadelphia matchup. The Flyers won last night but are now playing their second of back-to-back games on the road and they’re facing the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are coming off of a loss, but they rarely lose two in a row and are 25-4-3 on home ice. They’re also a rested team. This should be an easy cover for the Avs.
YYaremchuk’s Prop – Nazem Kadri over 0.5 assists (+100)
We’re getting even money on this bet and I like it considering the matchup. Kadri was an assist machine earlier this season and while he’s slowed down a little in the back half of the year, I think the Avalanche will score a lot tonight and Kadri is one of the better prices available in terms of assist props. I’m also taking Mikko Rantanen over 1.5 pts at +145. He’s hit this mark in four of his last five games and again, this is a good matchup for the Avalanche.