Daily NHL betting guide: March 28
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Monday, March 28
Model’s Picks
Record: 65-58
Units: +2.49
ROI: +2.02%
Recommended Bets
Arizona Coyotes (@ EDM)
Edmonton is massive -388 favourites against the Coyotes. That suggests they will win 79.5 percent of the time, which I’m not sure is ever the case in an NHL game. The model sees it closer to 68 percent, which seems more reasonable. The difference between the two means there’s enough value to take a chance on the Coyotes at +328.
Arizona has lost both meetings to the Oilers so far this season, getting outscored 10-to-4. Ever since their hot streak ended in Pittsburgh, they’ve lost five in a row and the offence has completely dried up–averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that span. Their recent struggles has led to them being the huge underdogs that they are tonight and they’ve come through for us in this spot before. So let’s roll with the “Desert Dogs” again tonight.
1 Unit Bet: ARI +328
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – LA/EDM regulation parlay (+150)
We ended the week on a very nice heater and after a weekend off, I’m ready to keep that streak going! As the saying goes: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s my mindset here as I’m taking the two biggest favourites on the slate and parlaying them to win in regulation. The Kings just beat the Kraken over the weekend and while they are 5-3-2 in their last ten, this is a solid matchup and the Kings are 2-0-1 on their current homestand. The Oilers got waxed on Saturday night in Calgary but they’re back on home ice tonight, where they’ve won six in a row, and are hosting an Arizona team that just played last night in Winnipeg. Edmonton should come out hungry tonight. I like both of these teams to win in regulation.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Connor McDavid anytime scorer (-117)
Listen, this isn’t great value but Connor McDavid is red hot right now and the Coyotes are not a good team. McDavid has had multiple points in four of his last five games but hasn’t scored in four straight. I like that to change tonight. I also like taking McDavid to go over 1.5 pts at -115.