Daily NHL betting guide: March 3
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, March 3
Model’s Picks
Record: 58-49
Units: +2.97
ROI: +2.78%
Recommended Bets
Vegas Golden Knights (vs. BOS)
The Golden Knights are coming off of a win over the Sharks but it was the return of Robin Lehner that was most notable. He wasn’t very busy but stopped 16 of the 17 shots that he faced, to earn his first win since February 1st.
The results haven’t been great lately, going 12-9-4 in their last 25, which is 14th in Points% over that span. The numbers suggest they should be better. Over that same stretch, they are fifth in 5v5 xGF/60 but are last in Goals Scored Above Expected. They have the third-lowest Shooting%, something that should improve over time. Injuries are a concern but all the numbers point towards better days ahead for Vegas.
Tonight, they are slightly home underdogs (-103) but the model views them as -127 favourites.
1 Unit Bet: VGK -103
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – COL/CGY regulation parlay:
I’ve been cold recently, but parlaying two big favourites in regulation has worked well and tonight we have a great spot to do it. The Flames have been one of the best teams in the NHL over the last months and while the Habs did go on a nice little run recently, they gave up eight to the Jets earlier this week. Calgary should roll there. Colorado is on a four-game winning streak themselves too and are 8-2-0 in their last ten. I like them to beat an Arizona team that has lost four of their six games in regulation during their current homestand. I also like the Oilers puck line tonight vs Chicago, as I explained on The Daily Faceoff Show.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 assists (-110):
[Tkachuk has hit this number in seven of his last ten and has a total of nine assists over that span. I like him to hit this number today and I’m also going to throw half a unit on him to go over 1.5 pts at +145. I think the Flames should roll tonight and Tkachuk has had back-to-back multi-point games.