Daily NHL betting guide: March 4
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Friday, March 4
Model’s Picks
Record: 58-50
Units: +1.94
ROI: +1.80%
Recommended Bets
New York Rangers (vs. NJD)
This line opened at -170 but moved towards the Devils, leaving the Rangers at -161 right now. That’s enough movement for the model to get on board with the home team. Dating back to the start of January, the Rangers are 10-2-1 while averaging 3.8 goals-for and 2.2 goals-against per game at Madison Square Garden. On the flip side, the Devils are a staggeringly bad 5-15-0 while averaging 3.3 goals-for and 4.2 goals-against in their last 20 road games. With Igor Shesterkin and Nico Daws expected to be the starting goalies, the Rangers have a massive advantage between the pipes. I don’t love goaltending splits but Shesterkin is 5-2-0 with a .930 SV% in his career vs. the Devils.
1 Unit Bet: NYR -161
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – MIN/BUF over 6.5 (-110)
We are in full-on #FadeYaremchuk mode. After being red hot for the first three months of the season, I’ve come crashing back down to earth in 2022. There have been good weeks but this week is not one of them. Tonight, I’m going with the over in the Sabres vs Wild game. Both of these teams have had 6+ total goals in eight of their last ten games. The Sabres held the Leafs to just one goal earlier this week but they haven’t held their opposition to less than three goals in back-to-back games since early December.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Mike Zibanejad over 0.5 assists (-110)
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been picking players who have been on good rolls, but I’m changing that up a little today. Yes, Zibanejad has hit this is three of five and seven of ten, but he’s missed it in two of his last three. The Rangers are playing the Devils as well and they’ve struggled to keep pucks out of their net at times. I’m rolling with Zibanejad tonight and I’m also taking Brayden Point to get an assist at +105 for the Lightning as well. Similar reasoning.