Daily NHL betting guide: March 9
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Wednesday, March 9
Model’s Picks
Record: 60-51
Units: +3.24
ROI: +2.92%
Lines to Watch
Washington Capitals (@ EDM)
The model sees this game as a coin-flip, giving each team a 50 percent chance at winning. The Capitals are +116 road underdogs, coming off of a 5-4 win in Calgary last night. The back-to-back is a bit concerning but the Oilers have lost three in a row and six of their last eight. They are extremely banged up, missing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Tyson Barrie, Evan Bouchard, and Kris Russell. Meanwhile, the Capitals are almost fully healthy for the first time all season.
If you can find a line closer to +120 (+122 to be exact) the model is recommending a bet.
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Oilers/Canucks Team Totals Parlay
Alright, in order to get back in the win column, I am getting a little creative. I like the Oilers and Canucks on home ice but I don’t trust Edmonton’s goaltending and the Canucks are playing a Canadiens team that has playing pretty well recently. I do think both teams can get some goals tonight so Im taking their adjusted team totals at 2.5 and parlaying them. The Canucks total pays -200 and they’ve hit that mark in nine of their last ten games. The Oilers total pays -250 and while they’ve only hit in seven of their last ten, their opponent tonight the Washington Capitals allowed four goals last night to the Flames. I think this is a safe parlay and it pays +110. Good value.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Darnell Nurse over 0.5 points (-110)
The payout here isn’t great but Nurse has a point in three of his last five and he’s playing a lot right now and he’s getting lots of time on the top powerplay unit with Tyson Barrie out of the lineup. The Oilers’ powerplay has been brutal recently but it’s been better on home ice than on the road and the Capitals’ penalty kill has been just average over the last few months. I like throwing a unit on Nurse to get a point and half a unit on him to get an assist at +165.