Daily NHL betting guide: November 15
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
November 15th, 2021
Recommended Bet
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. NYI)
This is not the same Tampa Bay Lightning team that has won back-to-back Stanley Cups. They’re about league-average offensively, ranking in the middle of the pack in most key offensive metrics at 5v5. Their power play is not the same without Nikita Kucherov, either; they are 17th in PP% (18.4), but our PP SCORE ranks them 26th.
On a positive note, they have played very well defensively. Tampa Bay is sixth in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.06), and their penalty kill is 10th in PK% (84.1) and sixth in PK SCORE. Not to mention, they still have Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is expected to start Monday.
The model prefers Tampa Bay around -120, but even -131 seems generous against an Islanders team that has stumbled out of the gates. Everyone seems to think that the Isles are a defensive juggernaut, but they are 29th in ScoringChanceAgainst/60 (31.01) and 24th in High-DangerChancesAgainst/60 (11.5). If not for the remarkable play of Ilya Sorokin they would have a lot more than six losses.
All of this is to say that neither team seems to be playing at their best right now, but the Lightning is still the superior of the two, and -131 seems like a fair price for the home team.
1 Unit Bet: TBL -131
2021-22 Season Record
- Record: 18-17
- Units: -3.27
- ROI: -9.34%