Daily NHL betting guide – November 23
We’ve got three NHL games on tap tonight and Tyler Yaremchuk and Brock Seguin have your best bets to go for.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Recommended Bet
Zach Hyman to get over 0.5 points (-140)
Zach Hyman only has points in two of his last five games, but I think he’s in a great spot tonight. Not only is he sticking on the Oilers’ top line next to Connor McDavid, but he will work as the net-front presence on their power play as well. The Oilers’ power play sits first in the league by a wide margin at 39.6 percent, while the Stars are not only 27th in PK%, but they’re also fourth in amount of times shorthanded per game. The Oilers’ power play should get a few looks tonight and that combined with Hyman’s ability to produce at 5v5 makes -140 a good price in my opinion.
Brock Seguin’s Recommended Bets
Calgary Flames (vs. CHI)
The Flames have turned into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have posted shutouts in seven of their first 19 games. While their league-high .958 5v5 SV% isn’t sustainable, they rank ninth in xGA (2.15) and seventh in xGF% (52.73), so goals against Calgary will remain difficult to come by. Tonight, the Blackhawks come into town averaging the fewest xGF/60 (1.76). They’re 5-1-0 since the coaching change, but they’ve scored just 2.33 goals per game. On the surface, it looks like they’ve improved defensively, allowing just 11 goals in six games (1.83), but the underlying numbers suggest not much has changed. They’ve gone from 2.50 xGA/60 under Jeremy Colliton to 2.33 xGA/60 under Derek King. The difference has been the goaltending, going from a .873 5v5 SV% (32nd) to a .968 5v5 SV% (2nd). One team is actually good and the other team is a bad team pretending to be good. The model agrees, seeing Calgary as the biggest favorite on the slate (-234) and sees value in them at -185.
1 Unit Bet: CGY -185
Proceed with Caution
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. PHI)
The model sees plenty of value on the Lightning at -170 but what it doesn’t see is the Brayden Point injury. Point is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, leaving them without two-thirds of their top-line. The Lightning are already 22nd in xGF/60 (2.23) and their offense will suffer even more without Point. A date with a red-hot Carter Hart (.946 SV% in his last six starts) makes it difficult to get behind them at -170.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
