Daily NHL betting guide: November 26
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Recommended Bet
Nashville Predators (vs. NJD)
The Predators are coming off of a loss to the Golden Knights but got Filip Forsberg back in that game. Forsberg scored their only two games in that contest and will certainly provide a jolt to their offense moving forward. Meanwhile, the Devils are in an ugly stretch, losing four of their last five and seven of their last 11. These are two different teams, with the Devils built more around offense and the Predators more defensively oriented. They grade out about the same in xGF% but the model likes Nashville a lot more and sees enough of an edge on them at -136.
1 Unit Bet: NSH -136
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. SEA)
The model continues to want to pick on the Seattle Kraken. Their goaltending has been a lot better in the last couple of games, so they could be turning a corner, but the model LOVES the Lightning at -171. I was cautious with them when Brayden Point first went down, but they’ve won both games since while averaging 4.50 goals per game. Tampa Bay has won six of their last eight on home ice, while the Kraken are 1-6-1 on the road this season.
1 Unit Bet: TBL -171
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
New York Islanders (vs. PIT)
The model is suggesting a bet on the Islanders because it recognizes the value in them at +125 but that would be without a COVID-19 outbreak and a few injuries. In their most recent game, 44.4 percent of the roster was called up from the AHL. Let’s avoid them until they get back to full health.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Pick
Game Pick
Tampa Bay in regulation (vs. SEA)
We don’t know the starting goaltending matchup yet, but if it’s Andrei Vasilevskiy going for Tampa Bay, then I love this play.
The Lightning are rolling right now with seven wins in their last 10 games. On the year, they’re top 10 in 5v5 GF/60, while the Kraken are right near the bottom of the league. Tampa Bay being the home team is a big decider for me in this one as well. Not only are the Lightning 6-3-2 on home ice, Seattle has been a pretty terrible road team this year with a record of 1-6-1.
I thought about the puck line, but I’m opting for the safe play taking Tampa Bay in regulation.
I’ll have a few other plays today that will be shared on The Daily Faceoff Show! Live at noon eastern.