Daily NHL betting guide: November 29
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Brock Seguin’s Pick
Line to Watch
Buffalo Sabres (vs. SEA)
The model continues to hate the Seattle Kraken and sees some value in the Sabres tonight as home underdogs (+126). Seattle is playing much better as of late, winning three of its last four while allowing only seven goals (1.75 GA/gm). Their win in Florida on Saturday was just their second road win of the season, bringing their record to 2-7-1 away from Seattle.
The metrics view Seattle as the better team, both at 5v5 and on special teams. With the positive regression finally setting in for their goalies, the model’s view will likely start to shift. They still aren’t good enough to be overwhelming favorites on the road, so if this line starts to stretch out a little more and Dustin Tokarski starts for the Sabres, I think there is some value on Buffalo.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Yaremchuk’s Pick: Jets -1.5 (-121) vs. ARI
The Jets snapped their five-game winless streak on Saturday night with a win over the Flames and I like them to get another win tonight. The Coyotes have been playing some better hockey as of late but they’re in a tough spot tonight. The Jets are 7-2-1 on home ice and have covered the puck line in five of those games. Connor Hellebuyck had a .944 save percentage on Saturday after getting yanked on Friday and he’s listed as the likely starter tonight. I think the Jets can win and cover tonight.
Prop Pick
Yaremchuk’s Prop: Yanni Gourde over 0.5 assist (+210) vs. BUF
The Kraken are taking on the Sabres tonight and I love taking a shot at a Yanni Gourde prop in this one. He has picked up an assist in three of his last four games and has been seeing some good ice time as well, playing on the Kraken’s second line and their second power-play unit. You could play it safe and take him to just get a point at -110, but I like taking a shot at the +210 for him to get an apple tonight.