Daily NHL Betting Guide – 10/11/22
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Tuesday, October 11
Model’s Picks
Tampa Bay Lightning (@ NYR) -103
The Lightning start their season in New York as slight road underdogs. This should be an outstanding goaltending battle, with Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin expected to start. The Lightning lost all three regular-season meetings vs. the Rangers last season but beat them 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. The sportsbooks have the Rangers at -117, but the model sees it the other way, with the Lightning at -120.
- 0.5 Unit Bet: TBL -103
Vegas Golden Knights (@ LAK) -101
This is an almost identical situation, where the sportsbooks like the home team around -120 and the model likes the road team around -120. Logan Thompson was outstanding in the pre-season (0.67 GAA and .971 SV%), so hopefully, that carries over into the preseason. In his only start vs. Los Angeles last season, Thompson stopped 38 of 39 shots in a 5-1 win last March. With Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, and William Karlsson all healthy, the Golden Knights will be able to roll four lines deep tonight and match the Kings’ depth.
- 0.5 Unit Bet: VGK -101
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