Daily NHL Betting Guide: October 12

Getting a little skin in the game can make watch NHL hockey even more exciting.

During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.

Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.

You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:

All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.

I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.

The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.

Recommended Bets

Vegas Golden Knights (vs. SEA)
– The Golden Knights open their season at home against the newly minted Seattle Kraken. It looks like the market believes that Seattle could enjoy the same level of success that Vegas enjoyed early in their inaugural season. However, the model does not believe that they have the same talent level. Vegas looks massively undervalued in the books right now, especially with the Kraken potentially shorthanded. Calle Jarnkrok, Marcus Johansson, Jared McCann, Joonas Donskoi and Jamie Oleksiak are all in COVID-19 protocol as of Monday, which would leave them without four of their top-9 forwards and a top-4 defenseman. Vegas looks like the only good target on Day 1 of the new season.

1 unit bet -261.

Lines to Watch

Pittsburgh Penguins (@ TBL)
– We are going to be cautious with this one, however, the model sees value in the Penguins if they get to +215. With that said, the Penguins will be in tough vs. the defending champs without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Zach Aston-Reese. Missing three key members from your top-6 against a fully healthy Lightning team might be one to avoid on opening night, even if the line gets to a tempting number.