Daily NHL Betting Guide: October 21
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
October 21st, 2021
Recommended Bets
Carolina Hurricanes (@ MTL)
The two off-ice rivals will go head-to-head on the ice tonight, with the offer sheeted Jesperi Kotkaniemi making his return to the Bell Centre. The two teams have gotten off to completely opposite starts, with Carolina opening at 2-0-0 and Montreal losing each of their first four games. The Canadiens haven’t been particularly competitive either, getting outscored 15-3 so far. Still, the Hurricanes enter as small road favourites, while the model suggests that this is the most lopsided game on the slate.
1 unit bet: CAR -121
Washington Capitals (@ NJD)
The Capitals have opened the season with a bang. Evgeny Kuznetsov looks rejuvenated and Washington has started 2-0-1 while outscoring their opponents 12-to-6 thus far. On Thursday, they will face a Devils team that has yet to lose (2-0-0) but are likely to be without Jack Hughes, who has factored in on three of their eight goals this season. Losing Hughes may be too big of a blow for the Devils to overcome and Washington should keep rolling tonight.
1 unit bet: WAS -115
Lines to Watch
Detroit Red Wings (vs. CGY)
While I’m not ready to fully buy into the Red Wings’ nice start, they do look like a team that could present nice value tonight. The model views them as modest favorites (-109) while PointsBet sees them as underdogs (+115). If the general public doesn’t believe in the Red Wings hot start, this line could inflate to a point where it’s too good to pass up.
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Arizona Coyotes (vs. EDM)
While technically the model sees value on betting the Coyotes at +170 tonight, the 2021-22 data sample on Arizona is likely too small for it to realize just how bad this team is. They’ve been crushed by the Blue Jackets and Blues and now they get Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. With Mikko Koskinen or Stuart Skinner starting for Edmonton, it gives Arizona a glimmer of hope, but betting this team is only for the most courageous.