Daily NHL Betting Guide: October 23
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
October 23rd, 2021
Recommended Bets
Washington Capitals (vs. CGY)
Washington has been rolling to start the season, opening the year at 3-0-1. As a result, PointsBet has the as -150 favorites for Saturday’s matinee vs. the Flames. The model sees the Capitals as much bigger favorites (-208), the second-biggest on the 13-game slate. Washington has been strong defensively, ranking ninth in ExpectedGoalsAgainst/60 (2.05) and their power-play should be excited to face a Flames’ penalty kill that has given up three goals in nine opportunities (66.7 PK%, fifth-worst in the NHL).
1 unit bet: WSH -150
Carolina Hurricanes (@ CBJ)
The Hurricanes are off to an undefeated season (3-0-0) and head into Columbus as modest favorites (-140). The Blue Jackets have had a nice start (3-0-1) as well but they’ve only played the Coyotes, Kraken, Red Wings and Islanders–four teams that have a combined 4-9-4 record so far. They haven’t faced a team like the Hurricanes so far Carolina is sixth in xGF (2.65) while the Blue Jackets have the fourth-highest xGA (2.84) in the NHL. The Hurricanes should have no trouble scoring in this contest.
1 unit bet: CAR -140
Vancouver Canucks (@ SEA)
Neither one of these teams is playing particularly well right now. They are two of the worst defensive teams in the NHL at the moment, which could make this game unpredictable. Still, as poorly as the Kraken have played, they are -140 favorites in their home opener and the model sees plenty of value in taking the road underdogs in this one. The Canucks offensive weapons have to wake up eventually… maybe a meeting with Kraken will be the spark that they need.
1 unit bet: VAN +120
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Pittsburgh Penguins (vs. TOR)
The Penguins have overcome the odds so far, going 2-0-2 in their first four games without Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. Tonight, they will be without all three of their top centers, after Jeff Carter tested positive for COVID-19. Even with Toronto coming in on the tail-end of a back-to-back, having no centers is going to be troublesome for the Penguins. Toronto also leads the NHL in xGF/60 (3.12), so the floodgates are going to open soon and I would suggest staying away, even though the model loves the Penguins in this one.
Buffalo Sabres (@ NJD)
I have been all about the Sabres’ hot start but it’s tough to like them in a back-to-back scenario. They hung in tough with the Bruins last night and still grade out as one of the best defensive teams in hockey but the back-to-back makes me hesitant about the model’s optimism.
Lines to Watch
New York Rangers (@ OTT)
The Rangers are slight favourites in their road matinee in Ottawa. The model would prefer to see them closer to -130 than -145 but this is still a game worth considering. The Senators will be without their No.2 centre Shane Pinto and Igor Shesterkin (Unconfirmed) has been one of the best goalies in the league early on.
*Update: Alexandar Georgiev starts for the Rangers, downgrade the Rangers a little bit. *
Detroit Red Wings (@ MTL)
The Red Wings are playing some of the best hockey that we’ve seen from them in a long, long time. Despite being shut out by the Flames on Thursday, they are fifth in the NHL in xGF/60 (2.75) and 15th in xGA/60 (2.23). Meanwhile, Montreal has the fourth-lowest xGF/60 (1.81), so seeing them as -180 favourites is a tough one to understand. The model suggests a bet if the Red Wings get to +160.
2021-22 Season Record
- Record: 5-3
- Units: +1.09
- ROI: +13.63%