Daily NHL Betting Guide: October 28
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
October 28th, 2021
Recommended Bets
Minnesota Wild (@ SEA)
The model loved the Canadiens in Seattle on Tuesday and that went poorly. The decisive win keeps sportsbooks on their toes with the Kraken and they come into Thursday at -105 to win vs. Minnesota. The Wild have been terrific this season, ranking third in xGF and 1st in xGA through six games. Conversely, Seattle is 27th in xGF and 18th in xGA. The Wild are a legitimately good 5v5 team and getting them close to even-money looks like a strong bet on Thursday.
1 Unit Bet: MIN -115
Philadelphia Flyers (@ VAN)
The Flyers are on the tail-end of a back-to-back, after handing the Oiler their first loss of the season on Wednesday. Tonight they’ll be in Vancouver, where Martin Jones will start in his hometown. Jones was outstanding in his Flyers debut and their top-6 is as hot as any in the NHL right now. On the other side, the Canucks are last in the NHL in xGF, Scoring Chances and High-Danger Chances. Even on a back-to-back, the model sees plenty of value in betting on the Flyers as +105 underdogs.
1 Unit Bet: PHI +105
Buffalo Sabres (@ ANA)
The Sabres have been the biggest surprise of the season so far. Nothing in the numbers suggests their early season performance is a fluke though. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams in hockey and are getting good goaltending from Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski. Their offence has been right around league average, which is good enough when you are limiting your opposition the way they have. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 31st in xGA and 22nd in xGF, so Buffalo should have an advantage in this game. As +115, the model likes the Sabres as -117 favourites, so you’re getting great value on this line.
1 Unit Bet: BUF +115
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Pittsburgh Penguins (vs. CGY)
The model continues to be obsessed with the Penguins and they are still way too banged up to be predictable. In lesser matchups, I think there’s some value but the Flames are playing too well right now to agree with the model.
2021-22 Season Record
- Record: 9-7
- Units: -0.57
- ROI: -3.56%