DailyFaceoff DFS Value Plays – January 12th
We’ve got a wee two-game slate tonight with three heavy favourites, and several players at each position are jumping out as great value options who are either in critical roles for their team or providing great production.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt defencemen options.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Morgan Frost (C, PHI) – @ MIN – (DK-$3,300 / FD -$5,100)
DFO Projection: DK-7.7 / FD-10
On a small slate like this, it’s not always easy to find solid value, but Frost helps to lead that charge tonight. He’s quietly turning his season around, and on DraftKings, his price is likely going up sooner, rather than later. With a great matchup tonight, look for him to lead the charge from value plays.
Cole Smith (W, NSH) – @ DAL – ($2,500 / $3,800)
DFO Projection: DK-5.6 / FD-7.3
Now here’s a dart throw for you in someone who is projected for next to no ownership. Smith and his linemates on NSH3 may not have the strongest matchup, but their line stats are solid as a trio. On top of that, across his 543 minutes this season, Smith has 1.0 ixG/60 vs. 0.6 G/60. He’s due to find the back of the net, and it won’t take much for him to not only pay off, but potentially take down a big field contest.
Zach Bogosian (D, MIN) – vs PHI – ($2,600 / $3,600)
DFO Projection: DK-5.6 / FD-7
While Brock Faber is the Minnesota Wild defenceman everyone is playing — and rightly so — Bogosian is projected for roughly two percent ownership to Faber’s 33.5. Meanwhile, Bogosian has decent shot volume and shot block volume, so this is a nice little pivot for a second pairing rearguard.
Jamie Drysdale (D, PHI) – @ MIN – ($5,400 / $5,900)
DFO Projection: DK-6.8 / FD-8.5
While Drysdale may not be projecting the best tonight, the value here comes from upside, and the ability to pivot off other play like Faber and Thomas Harley, both great options. Drysdale had 9.3 DKFP in his Flyers debut with an assist, two shots and a block, and played 19.5 minutes. Tons of money is coming in the Flyers from Vegas, so Drysdale could be a part of a potential win tonight.
Top Punt Defencemen
- Jani Hakanpaa, DAL ($3,200/$3,800): DK-5.1 / FD-6.6
- Alex Goligoski, MIN ($2,700/$3,700): DK-6.6 / FD-6.8
- Nils Lundqvist, DAL ($2,900/$4,100): DK-5.2 / FD-6.9
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.