DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Dec. 23
Officially time to hop off the Mo Seider train?
— Tim (@thepuckdude) December 22, 2022Nick Alberga: No way. Relatively speaking, it’s still somewhat early —it’s not even January yet. He’ll figure it out. Simply put, he’s going through the prototypical sophomore slump. That said, Seider’s too good for this to continue all season long. There’s no need to panic. Additionally, let’s say you dump him, who are you going to pick up? On top of that, I’m not sure you’ll get much for him on the trade market right now —at least nothing worth your time. Hold.
Brock Seguin: His on-ice SH% is 8.7%, it has to get better. His numbers will improve eventually, and there’s not many great waiver wire replacements on the blueline. I don’t know how you’re going to replace him, I think you just have to wait it out and hope positive regression sets in sooner rather than later.
Do I hold onto Kubalik? 14 team, points league, keepers
— K P (@tallypants) December 21, 2022Nick Alberga: Nope, I think it’s time to cut bait. After a torrid start, the winger’s come back down to earth recently to the tune of one point in his past seven outings. On top of that, he’s been relegated to line three and PP2 duties. I’ll pass for now, thanks. Don’t forget, you can always circle back down the road. Considering his lack of production lately, I don’t think anyone’s rushing to snatch him off waivers right now.
Brock Seguin: I’m not sure I’d be giving up on him in deep leagues yet. But, he’s close. He has one assist in his last seven, and his shot volume has eroded. He was always due for some regression but this seems extreme. I’d give him a little bit more time in a 14-team league, but things may get worse when Jakub Vrana is back.
Kuemper or Binnington. Who am I keeping?
— Reg Patrick (@DayneTrain81) December 22, 2022Nick Alberga: For me, this one’s not even close. It’s Kuemper. I know Charlie Lindgren’s been played well in his absence, but make no mistake about it, Kuemper’s the No. 1 for Washington. As for Binnington, personally, I think he’s droppable. Hell, I’d argue he hasn’t been fantasy relevant for a couple years now.
Brock Seguin: Kuemper. He’s the better goalie. He’s on the better team. St. Louis is among the 10 worst teams defensively (9th worst xGA/60), so Kuemper will be much better protected and should have way better numbers for the rest of the season.
How would you rank the short and long term outlook for the following goalies: Anton Forsberg, Blackwood, Martin, UPL, Comrie Petersen and Dostal. W SVP GAA SHO.
— Banks Thompson (@WilcoWacko) December 21, 2022Nick Alberga: Honestly, I wish I could predict the future, but sadly, I cannot. Short-term: UPL, Forsberg, Blackwood, Martin, Dostal, Comrie, Petersen. UPL’s looked good lately, but I’m not sold on Buffalo for rest of season purposes. Furthermore, Petersen’s at the bottom because he’s currently in the AHL. Long term, I still have moderate faith in Blackwood to figure it out on a consistent basis. It’s always hard to gauge with young netminders though, that’s for sure.
Brock Seguin: I think Anton Forsberg and Mackenzie Blackwood are the two best options for this season, both in the short and long term. I really like Lukas Dostal, but the Ducks aren’t going to be good enough to help him maintain fantasy relevance. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is also an interesting case, but I’m not sure how things will play out with their three goalies in Buffalo.
Blackwood plays on the best team of the bunch, and he looked really good against the Panthers. If he can provide a .905-to-.910 SV% he should be able to win a lot of hockey games. Forsberg hasn’t been great this season and is falling behind Cam Talbot, but he should still see enough starts to be rosterable ahead of the other names on this list.
Dude
I need a goalie!
Nick Alberga: Can I interest you in some Pheonix Copley? Out of nowhere, the 30-year-old has emerged from the AHL to post a 6-1-0 record for Los Angeles with a 2.49 goals-against and 0.910 save-percentage. Simply put, ride Copley while he’s hot. At this point in the fantasy season, all you’ll pretty much find on the waiver wire is stop-gap guys. Take Copley for a spin.
Brock Seguin: Hopefully, Pheonix Copley is available in your league. He’s still out there in 76 percent of leagues, and it looks like he’s taken over the job in Los Angeles. He’s 6-1-0 with a 2.49 GAA and .910 SV so far and should be able to maintain strong splits on a quality Kings team. They’re seventh in the NHL in expected goals against, so hopefully, he can save your season like he did the Kings’.
Beniers, I have IR stashers backstrom and Wilson coming off soon, should I still hold Beniers and drop other players like Reilly smith and couture? Do you think Beniers will go off soon?
— Anthony Maltese (@maltesea) December 21, 2022Nick Alberga: Yes, unequivocally, you should hold onto Beniers. Short-term and long, I think he’s a far better option than say a Logan Couture. Additionally, considering the type of injury Backstrom’s been dealing with, it’s still a relative unknown as to what he’ll actually be able to provide fantasy-wise this season. I’m treading carefully on that front —at least for now. Keep Beniers, drop Couture. Simple enough.
Brock Seguin: The big concern with Beniers is his shot volume; he’s not going to score many goals while shooting 1.5 shots per game. In a non-keeper league, you can probably safely drop him. At the same time, I’m not 100 percent convinced that Backstrom is going to be much better. He doesn’t shoot a lot, either. He’s coming off of major surgery at 35 years old and the Capitals have never been this deep at centre. Dylan Strome has been awesome as Alex Ovechkin’s centre, is Backstrom going to re-claim that spot? I’d take a wait-and-see approach on Backstrom before dumping Beniers.