DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Dec. 30

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Dec 30, 2022, 11:33 EST
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Dec. 30
Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Alberga: You made it this far, right? Personally, despite the uncertainty surrounding his future, I’m predicting a strong second half for Kane. To be fair, his production can’t get much worse than we’ve seen early on, though. It’s easy hold. First off, you’ll get terrible value if you try to trade him. Secondly, no, you can’t drop him. Just wait, that’s all I can say. Just wait. In this scenario, exercising patience is the way to go.  

Brock Seguin: You can’t drop him, no. He’s shooting 4.9 percent; his career average is more than double that (11.5%). At his career rate, he’d have 14 goals and 20 assists and be a point-per-game player. The goal-scoring has to improve, and there’s still the upside boost if he gets traded.

Matt Larkin: NO. He’s having by far the worst season of his career, yes. But I also predict he’s THE league winner of 2022-23 in fantasy hockey. Wait for that real-life trade. There’s a solid chance he waives his no-movement clause and finishes his season on a line with, say, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trochek, or Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, or Connor friggin’ McDavid. You get the idea. I fully expect Kane to catch fire once he lands in a competitive situation again. In my own primary league, I traded for him two weeks ago for that reason.

Nick Alberga: Firstly, there’s no need to panic, especially with Saros, who’s been rounding into form over the past few weeks. That said, I’m still not very bullish on the Preds – as a team – in the second half. I’m not sure they make the playoffs. Meantime, with respect to Thompson, I expected some turbulence from the onset. He’s a rookie after all. He’ll be fine. In addition to taking a flier on Pheonix Copley, I would also look at the likes of Charlie Lindgren, Filip Gustavsson and Antti Raanta, too.

Brock Seguin: I wouldn’t be overly concerned about those two. They should bounce back and be fine moving forward. If you’re looking to add a third goalie, Phoenix Copley (36%), Filip Gustavsson (34%), Antti Raanta (30%), Philipp Grubauer (16%), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (14%), Casey DeSmith (10%) are your best options. Gustavsson is probably the best of the group but is in a 50/50 split. Copley will likely play the most.

Matt Larkin: First off – while I understand concern about Thompson given the small sample size coming into this season, don’t worry about Saros anymore. He has a .926 save percentage in his past 16 games. He’s back. As for a low-owned goalie add? How about Pheonix Copley? He’s available in two thirds of Yahoo leagues and has seized the Kings’ starting role, at least for as long as he’s hot. He’s a remarkable 7-1-0 and has a .912 save percentage, which is quite respectable this season when the league average is .905. Given how bad Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen have been, maybe L.A. lets it ride a while with Copley. He started five of their past six games entering Thursday’s play.

Nick Alberga: Yes, I think he is. I mean, who else do they have? With all due respect to Adin Hill, of course. As mentioned, Thompson’s a rookie —it was fair to expect some ups and downs this season. Once Vegas gets a bit healthier, I think that will alleviate some of the pressure on the defence and goaltending. Hold.

Brock Seguin: Yes. He’s the No.1 in Vegas. They’re among the best defensive teams in the NHL, ranking third in all situations xGA/60 (2.7). He’s slipped up recently, but he should still be a solid No.2 fantasy option moving forward. They just need some bodies back; Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault should be in the lineup soon.

Matt Larkin: Tough one. Thompson has been an incredible story, rising from the Canadian university ranks all the way to the NHL. But when a guy with zero pedigree and a small sample size of success suddenly hits the skids, we have to wonder if the league has the book on him. That said, it’s not like he’s been terrible. His ‘slump’ equals a .907 save percentage in his past 10. I wouldn’t drop him, especially given the strong team in front of him, but I’d consider trading him for a more proven goaltender.

Nick Alberga: This one’s not even close for me, it’s Kyrou every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Aside from the fact that he has way more to work with around him in St. Louis, at this point in his career, he provides way more category coverage than Zegras does. I love how much he shoots the puck, too. Furthermore, now’s not the time to own any Ducks players as they position themselves for a shot at Connor Bedard. Go Kyrou or go home.

Brock Seguin: Kyrou. I have him projected for 44 points (22G / 22A) rest of season. Zegras at 33 points (12G / 21A). You’re only looking at roughly 38 extra fantasy points from face-off wins from Zegras, but not sure that’s enough to make up the difference.

Matt Larkin: The answer would be easier if Zegras wasn’t so bad on faceoffs, eh? Let’s play out the math for our decision. Let’s say each guy maintains his current scoring rate for the next 45 games. That would mean 46.41 points for Kyrou while Zegras gets 33.75. Zegras averages 2.83 faceoff wins per game this season. Multiply that by 45, then by 0.3, and you get an extra 38 points, upping his fantasy projection including faceoff wins to more than 70 points in his next 45 games. So, it’s not close here. Zegras by a mile in a faceoff-friendly format.

Nick Alberga: For me, it would be Fiala. I love his attachment to Anze Kopitar, and in addition to that, I think he has the highest fantasy ceiling this season of the three players listed. By the game, Fiala has looked more and more comfortable. I think he’s ready to really bust loose.

Brock Seguin: Fiala. He and Kuznetsov are likely going to be pretty close, but with Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin clicking, I don’t think Kuznetsov will play there too frequently. That limits his upside. Fiala has the same floor and greater upside.

Matt Larkin: Kevin Fiala, and I don’t think it’s even a tough choice here. He’s currently outscoring both of them easily…for the fourth consecutive season. Fiala is tied for 20th in the NHL in points since the start of last season. I’d go as far as saying he belongs in a tier above Kuznetsov and maybe two tiers about Schmaltz.

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