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DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Dec. 9

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Dec 9, 2022, 10:27 EST
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Dec. 9
Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Alberga: This one’s a tight one, but I’ll side with Boeser because I think he gets traded at some point over the next few months. Additionally, there’s just something about Vancouver’s offence that just keeps me involved and interested. On top of that, Boeser will continue to see top-six exposure, a pathway that’s not as certain for Seguin. In this situation, I’ll go with the stronger offence; give me Boeser.

Brock Seguin: Great first and last name combination on these guys. It’s close, but I think I’d rather have Seguin. Rest of season, they project almost the exact same so you can’t really make the wrong choice, but Seguin has the added potential of being the top line centre if something happens to Roope Hintz. It’s no guarantee that would happen, but Boeser doesn’t really have the same kind of upside.

Matt Larkin: I’m tempted to say Seguin. It’s true that a trade to a new environment could ignite Boeser’s goal scoring, and he’s five years younger, but Boeser has a devil of a time staying healthy. The next injury is always around the corner. Seguin quietly played 81 games last season, so his hip problems are in the rearview mirror. And yet: it’s telling that Seguin’s best right now, a 4-15-19 stat line in 26 games, is considered Boeser’s worst. Seguin is “back” with those numbers, whereas Boeser is “struggling” at 4-12-16 in 21 games. I prefer to chase the ceiling here with Boeser.

Nick Alberga: No, especially in that type of format, I think it’s time to move on. Put it this way, considering the lack of production early on, it’s not like opposing managers will be rushing to the waiver wire to pick him up. Drop him and monitor closely. That way, you can get the best of both worlds —isn’t that we’re all after in life?

Brock Seguin: It all depends on what the categories are. He’s more valuable in leagues that include hits and blocked shots. With 18 teams, I can’t imagine the D free agents pool is very deep, but Weegar holds little value outside of his peripheral stats. He doesn’t see enough PP time to be a consistent point producer. Players like J.J. Moser and Mike Matheson are around 10 percent rostered, and I’d much rather have them if they’re available.

Matt Larkin: The “points only” element makes this question very interesting. In banger formats, Weegar still provides enough statistical balance to be worth keeping round. But the points simply haven’t been there on a Calgary Flames team that has underachieved. Weegar only has two years of above-average point production to boot. Even in an 18-team league, considering you only start three ‘D,’ I can understand cutting him. But I’d give it to the end of December in case Calgary’s offense wakes up.

Nick Alberga: The answer has to be Duclair, right? By all accounts, the winger is expected to return some time after Christmas. Meantime, we haven’t really received many updates on Backstrom. Considering how things have gone thus far for the Capitals, I think they’re going to take a wait and see approach. Furthermore, I could be wrong, but Backstrom’s not expected back anytime soon. Go with the sure thing.

Brock Seguin: I would go Duclair, it seems like he’ll be back first and he has more goal-scoring upside. Backstrom’s production is really assist-heavy, which is easily replaceable. Plus, at 35-years-old, I’m a little more concerned about his ability to bounce back from a major surgery.

Matt Larkin: I’ll surprise myself and say Duclair. Nicklas Backstrom is a future Hall of Famer, but the recovery timeline for his hip resurfacing surgery is quite murky despite recent positive reports. He’s 35 and a Stanley Cup winner. Are we sure this injury won’t end up being a career ender? When Duclair returns, he’ll be an important component of a Panther team that needs forward depth – or will be traded to a new team. He’s much younger and brings better category juice. Backstrom is an assists and points asset but not much else now.

Nick Alberga: Personally, I’d hold on both. I know Kempe’s struggled, but it’s a long season, and on top of that, I’m not sure you’ll be able to find a better long-term option on the waiver wire right now. Additionally, Smith’s cooled off after a hot start. That said, he’s still being deployed in a very favourable role to produce, that’s all you should care about it. It’ll come.

Brock Seguin: I still like Kempe moving forward. His shot volume is terrific (2.7 SOG/gm), but Smith can be dumped. He’s a nice streaming target but not really a long-term fantasy asset for me.

Matt Larkin: It helps to know league size for context, but my default is to assume you’re in a medium 12-teamer, in which case Kempe is a hold. I know he’s been dropped to the third line, but he’s still playing on PP1, and he remains a shot-generating machine. Even though his shooting pace has dipped from last year’s, he’s still second on the Kings in shots. He’s on pace for a respectable 23 goals. Last season’s 35 came with a career-best shooting percentage, so maybe that number will go down as an anomaly.

As for Smith: He’s always my quintessential ‘Just a Guy’ example in fantasy hockey but, hey, he’s still locked into top-six duty and power-play work. He’s on pace for his usual 50-plus points. So, he’s perfectly rosterable. Just keep an eye on that career-best shooting percentage, though. I don’t think his current 35-goal pace holds up.

Nick Alberga: I’m still undecided how I feel about the Kraken for rest of season purposes, so I’ll side with the veteran Quick. Furthermore, I know he’s struggled so far, but it’s a long season, I think he’ll find his game again eventually. Additionally, I like Los Angeles more than I like Seattle; they’re bound to find a groove sooner rather than later. They’ve been a disaster defensively.

Brock Seguin: Not an easy decision, but Grubauer. The Kraken are a really good defensive team (4th in xGA/60), and it seems like Grubauer has more hope to bounce back. I don’t think either of them will be very productive, but Grubauer seems like the best of some bad options. Regardless of who you go with, you’ll have to be very picky with the matchups when you play them.

Matt Larkin: Quick. Grubauer has continued to look lost since the start of last season. He had a horrid .889 save percentage last season and this year, even on a much better Seattle Kraken team, he sits at .868. Quick hasn’t been great but has less competition for work. Martin Jones has stolen the lion’s share of starts from Grubauer, whereas Quick holds down No. 1 work for now in L.A. with Cal Petersen banished to the AHL.

Nick Alberga: Yes, I think he is. The Jackets may be done, but that doesn’t mean they won’t score a ton of goals moving forward. In general, I think Jenner’s been one of the more underappreciated fantasy players over the past few seasons. Over his past 82 regular outings, he has 31 goals and 62 points —that’s nothing to sneeze at. Also, it’s tough to overlook the constant exposure to the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. Keep him.

Brock Seguin: Yeah, that line has been really good. They’ve basically been the Blue Jackets’ entire offence. That line is averaging 3.1 xGF/60, 31.4 SCF/60 and 13.2 HDCF/60, he’ll be very productive so long as he’s skating with Gaudreau and Laine.

Matt Larkin: Columbus is a fantasy wasteland right now. Even when the team was healthy and had signed Johnny Gaudreau, it was a dicey proposition to roster many Jackets. Now, with all those injuries? Yikes. BUT – that actually is, ahem, a boon to Boone’s value. There’s no playing time competition. He’s centering the first line, centering PP1, playing more than 20 minutes a night, averaging more than three shots per game and almost two hits per game. I think he’ll continue turning a profit. Even his plus-minus is palatable at minus-4 considering how bad the team has been.

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