DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Jan. 13

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Jan 13, 2023, 12:54 EST
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Jan. 13
Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Alberga: Hold. And that assessment’s based pretty much strictly on his attachment to Cole Caufield. I just don’t know who you’re going to snatch off the waiver wire that’s going to be a better long term fit for you. Unfortunately, your sell-high window closed a long time ago, too. Sit tight.

Brock Seguin: I’ve been saying trade Suzuki since October. Regression finally caught up to him. That line just doesn’t generate enough quality scoring chances to produce consistently. They were getting lucky, and he was a great sell-high months ago; now you’re just stuck with him. If you can get someone to bite on a trade, I’d be moving him as quickly as possible. Depending on the free agency market, I wouldn’t hesitate to drop him if there’s a suitable replacement on the wire.

Matt Larkin: Just one goal and six points in his last 16 games. Woof. He’s still on track for career-best numbers, but the slump is hard to stomach. On a Habs team that isn’t going anywhere this season, Suzuki was always going to take his lumps, especially as a two-way centre and captain who shoulders a lot of responsibility. In a shallow league, you don’t necessarily have to ride out the slump. In a deep or even medium league, though, he still probably has more upside than anything you’d find on the wire, so I’d hold him or try to get a Habs fan to pay 95 cents on the dollar in a trade.

Nick Alberga: Not sure what you’re looking for, but I think Skinner’s actually been good —all things considered. When owning any Oilers goalie, without question, you have to take into account their spotty defence.  It’s the risk that comes with the potential reward. Stand pat, or long to add some further insulation in your crease, depending on who else you own.

Brock Seguin: I don’t love Skinner’s outlook heading into the second half of the season for two reasons. First, the Oilers have just been terrible defensively as of late. Secondly, Jack Campbell and his massive contract seem to be turning a corner. A lot of Skinner’s value came from playing every night because the Oilers couldn’t trust Campbell. I think he’ll see more work in the second half and eat into Skinner’s workload. I’d be trying to move him if possible.

Matt Larkin: Has Skinner been that bad, though? Consistency has been a problem, fair, but even in his past five appearance he’s posted a SV% of .935 or better three times. His .914 SV% for the year is well above the league average. If you can secure a more proven netminder in a trade for him, fair, but I don’t think he’s been bad enough to warrant bailing on him quite yet.

Nick Alberga: Personally, I wouldn’t worry about Hyman dropping off. Wasn’t he producing at pretty much the same clip when Kane was in the lineup? This one’s simple: One of Yamamoto, McLeod, or Holloway will get squeezed. They might even elect to push RNH into the top-six once again. Adding Kane just opens up so much more for that team; they need him desperately.

Brock Seguin: Hyman’s 5v5 production won’t fall off at all. He’ll be with either McDavid or Draisaitl and should be able to continue the run he’s been on. On the power play, they will likely split time on that top unit. They did a lot of that to start the season, and I imagine it will continue once Kane returns. That will probably hurt his PP production a little bit, but he still had 15 points (6G / 9A) in 13 games before Kane got hurt. So I don’t have any concerns with Hyman heading into the second half. 

Matt Larkin: I fully expect Kane to slot back into the top six and bump a winger out from the revolving door that has included Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin, Dylan Holloway and so on. I wouldn’t worry about Hyman falling off. If you look at the power play minutes per game between him and Kane in the 2021-22 regular season, 2021-22 playoffs and 2022-23 regular season, Hyman consistently has the edge. He’s more commonly PP1 alongside McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie. So, I’d predict Hyman stays on PP1, Kane PP2.

Nick Alberga: Yes, I think Florida has a run in them, they’re way too talented to be this inconsistent. Will it be enough to get them into the Stanley Cup Playoffs? That’s another question, especially when you factor in how many teams are in the mix. Furthermore, it’s unfortunate what’s happened to Knight. He was trending upwards and grabbing the net from Bobrovsky, and then bam, he got sick. It’s been a disaster ever since. Personally, if I owned Bobrovsky, I would be looking to deal him as quick as possible. I’m sorry, I just don’t trust the guy. On top of that, I’m just not sure how much I trust the Panthers. Something’s off there.

Brock Seguin: It doesn’t seem like Knight is going to be out long-term so this doesn’t have a huge effect on Bobrovsky’s value. As for the team, they’re never going to be as good as they were last season. It’s just not clicking under Paul Maurice, and you can’t consider them an elite team anymore. I think they can get back into the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference, but this isn’t a Stanley Cup contender right now.

Matt Larkin: I’ve been bullish on a Panthers turnaround for much of this season, but I’m starting to lose faith. I figured it would’ve happened by now, and their depth is very depleted compared to last season. Bobrovsky’s value obviously does jump, yes, with Knight on IR. Far less competition for work as long as Knight is out, though it doesn’t sound like his absence will be too long.

Nick Alberga: It’s probably not the answer you’re looking for, but I’ll say no. For starters, the Panthers have two very stealth options around him in the form of Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling. On top of that, this Panthers team just doesn’t score like ones prior, so obviously everyone’s going to take a bit of a hit. Long story short, I think Ekblad’s numbers will start to track a bit better in the second half. That said, I just don’t think he’ll be amongst the top fantasy blueliners, which is unfortunate, because that’s where he was projected to be in the preseason.

Brock Seguin: He’s in a slump, and he’ll likely come out of that, but his rates match-up with his career, so I expect the second-half of the season to be similar to the first-half. I’d expect another seven goals and 15 assists if he can stay healthy for the remaining 39 games. 

Matt Larkin: I don’t think Ekblad has been bad in fantasy this season, but he hasn’t met the lofty standard he set last year. I do wonder if 2022-23 will end up a down year for him. He lost two of his closest friends on the team in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. When I spoke to Ekblad before the season he was openly upset about it. And with the forward depth damaged, there aren’t as many finishers to help Ekblad compile assists. So maybe he finishes outside the elite tier this season.

Nick Alberga: The first one’s a tough one, but I’ll side with UPL merely because I think his pathway to playing time is clearer than Kochetkov’s. There’s the whole three goalie thing in Carolina, and on top of that, I fully expect Frederik Andersen to heat up in the second half just in time to sign a new contract in free agency.

As for Copley, yes, I would sell high. It’s a great story, but regression has already started to seep in. The 30-year-old has now surrendered three goals or more in four of his past six appearances. Do it. And don’t look back.

Brock Seguin: I really like Kochetkov for obvious reasons, but I’m not sure the Hurricanes carry three goalies. If he goes back to the AHL, the answer is obviously UPL. Luukkonen looks like the Sabres’ No.1 netminder, and I won’t be surprised if we see Eric Comrie on waivers soon. Luukkonen won’t have the best splits because the Sabres are below-average defensively, but he should be able to rack up a decent amount of wins. 

I think Copley is the real deal. I’ve talked about him for a while because the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, and they just need average goaltending to win games. That’s what Copley is giving them, and Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen were not. He’s locked into the No.1 role on a team that does a great job protecting him. I would definitely be looking to sell high in keeper leagues, but in re-draft, I’m holding onto him.

Matt Larkin: Pytor Kochetkov over Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Think about it: both have forced their way into three-goalie timeshares. The situations are quite similar. So, you can break the tie with Kochetkov playing on a much better team. I would look to move Copley, using the 12-2-0 record as a selling point. He’s getting his first extended run as an NHL starter at 30 years old and he’s already starting to regress, posting a .893 save percentage in his last six games – during which he’s gone 5-1-0 somehow!

Nick Alberga: No. Of the three, the only one I’d consider dealing is Nichushkin because of the uncertainty surrounding his ankle injury. That said, I don’t think anyone’s going to be in a rush to trade him – due to the obvious – right now. Furthermore, Cozens and Stutzle continue to trend upwards. For rest of season purposes, I love both players. Don’t forget: Patience is a virtue.  

Brock Seguin: I’d be open to moving Cozens if you can get a decent return. I’m not sure the general public values Cozens very highly though, so it might be difficult to get fair value for him. His shot and goal production should be pretty sustainable from here on out but it’s tough to expect him to maintain the assist totals with a 14.7 on-ice SH% when he’s only playing with Buffalo’s top players on the power-play.

Matt Larkin: I wouldn’t be selling Cozens or Stutzle. They are fellow third-overall NHL draft picks, taken in 2019 and 2020, and their improving production is right on track with what they’ve been expected to become. As for Nichushkin? While he, too, carries first-round pedigree, his offence has bloomed relatively late in his career. He’s 27, injured and was producing at better than a point per game – with the Stanley Cup winner premium already spiking his value, which is tied more to his real-life defensive play than his offence. I’d cash him out if you can get a top-100 player for him.

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