DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Jan. 6
Who are some great sell-high options?
— Vito (@Vitorious13) January 4, 2023Nick Alberga: This is always a tricky question, but I’ll try my best. It’s always so subjective. Some names to ponder: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vitek Vanecek, Chandler Stephenson, Jamie Benn, Hampus Lindholm. Again, aside from the first two, good luck trying to find a dance partner. Fantasy owners love name brands, sadly.
Matt Larkin: (Let the records show that Matt submitted this before Toronto’s lopsided loss to Seattle on Thursday night)
Matt Murray has vastly exceeded expectations as Toronto’s 1A goaltender. But the fact he started just 14 of the team’s first 38 games is a reminder of the time he’s already missed due to injury. It still feels like his next one is always around the corner. I’d cash out while that save percentage sits at a tidy .920.
My No. 1 sell high, though, is Bo Horvat. No chance he’s a 60-goal guy. He’s never even scored 40. His career high entering the season was 31. He’s buoyed by a hilariously unsustainable shooting percentage of 25.0.
Is Mac Pacioretty gonna be back to a ppg when he returns or have his injuries caught up to him?
— Luke mccarley (@LukeMcCarley) January 4, 2023Nick Alberga: I think I should preface by stating that I’ve always been a big-time Max Pacioretty guy when it comes to fantasy hockey. Having said that, he’s coming off a major injury, so it’s understandable to feel some apprehension in owning him. Personally, it’s not injuries that concern me, it’s Carolina’s depth. Deployment is everything. I think he’ll be fine, I though. Furthermore, he had six shots on goal in his debut on Thursday night.
Matt Larkin: Can I answer, “both of the above?” So, I do expect Pacioretty to produce at a point-per-game rate or something close to it…eventually. He had 88 points in 87 games over his previous two seasons. But we can expect some rust coming back from an Achilles injury. Jonathan Huberdeau returned strongly in 2016-17 when he suffered a partial tear, but he was 23. Erik Karlsson had a major 2012-13 Achilles injury from a skate cut and returned to win a second Norris but was 23. Pacioretty is 34. I think he’ll eventually find his stride again – but he’s a permanent injury risk at this point. Major maladies have become commonplace throughout his career.
Should I drop Jonathan quick?
— Jacques Vieau (@JacquesVieau) January 5, 2023Nick Alberga: Yup, I think it’s time. Indisputably, Pheonix Copley has taken ownership of Los Angeles’ crease, and considering the run he’s on, I don’t anticipate that changing anytime soon. You can always circle back on Quick if/when he figures things out again.
Matt Larkin: Sure! LOL. And that applies even to deep leagues. He hasn’t been an above-average fantasy goalie in five years. He’s 36 and plays an athleticism-fuelled style that was never designed to age well. If he starts to turn things around, it’s not like there will be a huge fight to run back and retrieve him from the waiver wire.
What is Phoenix Copley’s long-term value? He’s on a fantastic seven-game winning streak and both he and Quick are UFA’s this year. Is he playing for a contract elsewhere or will LAK give him the keys for at least next year?
— StMikes35 (@SMikes35) January 4, 2023Nick Alberga: I’m sorry, I don’t believe in him as much as others. This has literally come out of nowhere. Teams will figure him out eventually. That said, by far, he’s L.A.’s best crease option right now. And it’s not even close. Quick has been terrible and Petersen’s in the AHL. I’ll say this: If Copley can keep this up for the rest of the season, I think the Kings will have no choice but to bring him back. Talk to me like two weeks, or a month. Currently looking for the glass slipper.
Matt Larkin: It’s too early to forecast any long-term value for Copley. But if we start by focusing on the present: he has a chance to retain the starter’s gig given how weak his competition has been from Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Maybe the Kings reward Copley with a small extension. Why not? Quick is a UFA. If you’re wondering about whether Copley is keepable as a potential starting goalie next season: you may have to wait and see if he’s L.A.’s playoff starter and performs well.
I’m a Pyotr Kochetkov owner and I’m wondering with the recent success of Antti Raanta, and the eminent return of Frederik Andersen, is it time to drop him? My other goalie is Fleury, and in free agency right now, top two goalies available in my league are Vejmelka & UPL.
— Peter Galanopoulos™© (@PeterGalanos) January 4, 2023Nick Alberga: Yeah, this is a tricky one. For now, I would hold. Once Frederik Andersen is good to go, the Canes will be tasked with either trading someone or just strictly demoting Kochetkov (waiver exempt) to the AHL. If history (Alex Nedeljkovic) shows us anything, the Canes may us elect to employ a three-goalie system. Personally, I think the simple fix is trying to move Raanta, which I’m sure they’ve been testing the waters on already. Hold. Kochetkov’s too good to not be in the NHL.
Matt Larkin: Working against Kochetkov is that he’s the only waiver-exempt goalie of the trio. That’s an imminent concern if you’re a Kochetkov owner. That said: he’s been too effective to not be part of the team’s plans and, given they’ve signed him to an extension, they clearly want him around. So, I anticipate the Canes will trade one of their veteran goalies in the coming weeks – perhaps Raanta. If you can stash Kochetkov even in the event of an AHL demotion, I would, as I think the demotion would be temporary.
I have Hertl and with all the Timo Meir trade rumours, would this be a good time for me to trade Hertl? If yes, what would be a good return for him?
— Peter Galanopoulos™© (@PeterGalanos) January 4, 2023Nick Alberga: Unless they receive an offer they can’t refuse, I don’t see San Jose trading Meier. That’s just my opinion, though. For rest of season purposes, I’d hold onto Hertl. If you’re hellbent on trading him, though, I’d fetch a current top-100 file in return. The only problem is his lack of cache, I can’t see anyone overpaying or bidding up to acquire him. I guess it depends on who’s in your league, I know my buddies wouldn’t bite for Hertl right now.
Matt Larkin: I wouldn’t bend over backwards trying to trade Hertl on the basis of Meier rumours. Hertl has proven plenty effective in his career when not playing with Meier. Hertl is a capable play-driver. That said, I can understand at least a little concern over losing a quality linemate. If I were to move Hertl, it would be for 100 cents on the dollar. I’d seek an equal-value player with greater upside. How about a buy low on J.T. Miller? He has roughly the same points but is a much better contributor in hits.