DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Mar. 17
Stutzle is on a 95 point pace over 63 games this season. He just turned 21 mid January. He looks fast, shifty, smart, highly skilled, has a wicked quick release, has great dekes. What do you project for goals, assists next year and in his prime?
— Kyle Snell (@KyleSnell81) March 15, 2023Nick Alberga: Firstly, I’m not surprised one bit by his development this season. He showed signs of being an absolute stud last year, and now he’s putting it all together on a regular basis. Naturally, I’m terrible with projections, but I don’t see why he can’t be a consistent 35-40 goal, 85-95 point guy year in and year out moving forward. Heck, I think he’s fully capable of hitting 100 points —the sky’s truly the limit. Enjoy the ride, my man.
Matt Larkin: It’s happening. Even in Tim Stutzle’s draft year of 2020, some scouts believed he had the highest ceiling of the class, and it’s clear he’s going to reach it. Jack Hughes was selected the year before Stutzle and, after looking great in 2021-22, Hughes has gone bananas this season and will a fantasy first-rounder for the next decade. I think Stutzle takes the equivalent leap next year. I could see him hitting 100 points in 2022-23 and becoming first-round fantasy fodder by 2024-25.
After a great performance against the rangers jarry poops the bed against the habs, my goalies are sway, quick, fleury and jarry. Should I still hold on to jarry in the playoffs
— Anthony Maltese (@maltesea) March 15, 2023Nick Alberga: Even though I’ve never really been a big Jarry backer, undoubtedly, the right play here is to hold onto him. The Penguins are fighting for their playoff lives, and with that, I expect them to be in many low-scoring tight-checking type games down the stretch. At the very least, just change the way you deploy him. He’s your No. 4 right now —no question about it. Sit tight.
Matt Larkin: I think you should, given the other goalies you roster. Marc-Andre Fleury and Jeremy Swayman are sharing their nets, and while Jonathan Quick has been a revelation in Vegas, he still has competition for work when the other Golden Knight goalies get healthy. Tristan Jarry remains the No. 1 despite being maddeningly inconsistent. He can hurt your rate stats when he’s slumping but is the best bet of your group for volume-stat contributions for the balance of the year…we think. Admittedly Casey DeSmith has outplayed Jarry since the All-Star break, but DeSmith has never been able play well enough long enough to steal the gig. So, I think Jarry figures things out as long as he’s not playing hurt.
Is Logan Thompson worth holding on to or drop to pick up a korpisalo, UPl?
— Mike Dente (@dente47) March 15, 2023Nick Alberga: Because Jonathan Quick’s been supplying some steady goaltending (Thursday night notwithstanding), I can see Vegas being very patient with Thompson in his recovery process. I mean, there’s no need to rush him back at this point, is there? With that in mind, yes, I would go ahead and drop him in favour of Korpisalo —even though the Fin’s been alternating starts with Pheonix Copley since being acquired from Columbus at the trade deadline.
Matt Larkin: You should RUN to add Joonas Korpisalo now. Not only is Thompson’s recovery timeline still very murky, but there’s a viable top-15 goaltender just sitting there for you to add! Korpisalo was acquired to be the Kings’ starter and doesn’t have nearly the same competition as Thompson or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Korpisalo went 3-0-0 with a .929 save percentage in his first three starts as a King. He can be a fantasy playoff league winner.
Vilardi sustainable for next few weeks? He's my schmaltz replacement rn
Also love your guys work, I'm so nervous for playoffs I could cry
Nick Alberga: Yeah dude, I’m feeling it. After a hot start, Vilardi hit the skids big-time. But lately, it seems like he’s figured things out again. I’m just happy the guy’s finally healthy. At this time of year, it’s imperative to ride the hot hand. As long as he continues to produce, keep him on your roster —plain and simple.
Matt Larkin: Gabe Vilardi has been a revelation for the Kings this season – but I feel like’s more helpful in real life than in fantasy despite his hot streak. He has given them a lift in that he’s doing so as a third-liner. In a fantasy context: during his seven-game hot streak, he’s still just playing 15:37 per night. So, I don’t think the role is big enough for sustained excellence despite the fact he’s been legitimately good.
4 Keepers next year in a league where goalies are at a premium.
Rantanen, Stutzle, Pettersson, Eichel, Aho, Georgiev, Kochetkov
Difficult I know, please help!
Nick Alberga: I wish I could differ from what Matt’s about to tell you, but I would roll with Rantanen, Stutzle, Pettersson and Georgiev as well. That’s tough, though —all seven players mentioned will hold legitimate fantasy value heading into next season. Rantanen’s a given. Additionally, I just like the career trajectories of both Stutzle and Pettersson. There’s still so much room to grow for both players. Furthermore, the goalie debate is close, but I’ll side with Georgiev because I have no clue what the Canes do in their crease this summer. For what it’s worth, I do think Kochetkov already has one of their two goalie slots locked up for next season. Let’s see what happens.
Matt Larkin: Mikko Rantanen, Stutzle and Elias Pettersson are playing at a different level than anyone else on your list. There are your first three, easy peasy. As for the next one: Kochetkov is really tempting, but I lean toward Alexandar Georgiev. We have a better sense of his role for next season and beyond given he’s signed for two more years and has played well as Colorado’s starter. Kochetkov also has a fresh contract extension and possesses the upside to be a top-five goalie as early as next season, but with Andersen and Raanta being UFAs, we just don’t know who the tandem partner will be – and how much it will threaten Kochetkov’s playing time.
Marcus Petterson 11 pts in last 14 games. He gets zero PP time. Fantasy relevant, yes or no?
— Peter Galanopoulos™© (@PeterGalanos) March 15, 2023Nick Alberga: Even though those numbers are definitely nothing to sneeze at, I don’t currently view Pettersson as anything more than a daily streamer option right now. Having said that, the Penguins do play four times next week, so at the very least, I’d monitor what he does over the few outings very closely.
Matt Larkin: Depends entirely on your league format. If you play in a traditional-style league that prioritizes points or scoring in general, Marcus Pettersson is not relevant. If you play in a banger league, like I do, Pettersson is rosterable – not for his offense. He’s a handy asset in the hits and blocks categories, good for about two of each per game. Any points he tosses in are merely gravy but can’t be counted on regularly.