DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Mar. 24

2 questions for your next mailbag post – i have to keep 1 goalie in my keeper pool for next season so who do i keep between skinner, saros or ullmark? I am also undecided on my last forward keeper between duchene, skinner or kempe. Thanks.
— Jay Moore (@jayjmoore17) March 22, 2023Nick Alberga: While he’s almost come out of nowhere this season, it has to be Ullmark, right? I knew he was good; I didn’t know he was this good. If you had asked this question in say September, the answer easily would’ve been Juuse Saros. All things being equal, it’s hard not to keep someone coming off a Vezina Trophy.
As for your other question, give me Jeff Skinner. It’s hard to overlook the attachment to Buffalo’s top-six, namely Tage Thompson.
Brock Seguin: Saros, 100%. The skater is a little more difficult, but I lean Kempe. He’s four years younger than Skinner and is probably the more reliable goal-scorer. Skinner has had an awesome year, but expecting him to repeat career highs in on-ice SH% (13.6%) and personal SH% (15.4%) is unrealistic.
Matt Larkin: Linus Ullmark has just been too good this season not to keep. Yes, he has consistent competition from Jeremy Swayman, but Ullmark is likely going to win the Vezina Trophy. You have to keep the Vezina winner! Adrian Kempe’s cocktail of goals, shots and hits makes him an underrated fantasy asset, but as long as Jeff Skinner keeps rolling on Buffalo’s top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, the ceiling is just much higher, so I lean Skinner’s way. Amazingly, he is still only 30 as he wraps up his 13th NHL season.
Is Devon Levi a no-brainer pick up right now for a keeper league?
— StMikes35 (@SMikes35) March 22, 2023Is Devon Levi a no-brainer pick up right now for a keeper league?
Nick Alberga: Unequivocally, yes. Just be cognizant that it may take some for him put everything together. For some youngsters, it clicks almost instantaneously, for others, it takes time and they don’t end up being significant fantasy pieces until their mid-20s. There’s no question this kid comes with significant hype; we’ll see if he can live up to it. Thank you, Sam Reinhart.
Brock Seguin: Yes. His NCAA numbers are mind-boggling, and it doesn’t appear as if he has much competition for starts heading into 2023-24. Craig Anderson will probably be retired, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had his moments, but he has a 3.62 GAA and .890 SV%, so he looks like Buffalo’s backup next season.
Matt Larkin: For sure. He is one of he most dominant college goalies in recent memory. For me, it’s quite telling that they have him rolling with the NHL club despite having three other goalies on the roster. They clearly hold Levi in high regard. Craig Anderson could retire after this season, and while Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have had their hot stretches, they’ve both been outplayed by a 41-year-old. The job is thus Levi’s for the taking, even if it’s not until 2023-24 or 2024-25.
With the Sabres fading, is it time to drop Owen Power?
— Steve Goodman (@Goody_NYC) March 22, 2023Nick Alberga: The answer is yes. Assuming it’s a non-keeper, there are likely far better options available to you on the waiver wire right now. Don’t think twice. Power’s really good, it’s just going to take him some time to be a consistent producer at the NHL level. And that’s fine.
Brock Seguin: If you’re in a re-draft league, at this point in the season, you have to be cutthroat with your roster decisions. Depending on who’s available on the wire, yeah, I wouldn’t hesitate to drop him. He has two tough matchups on Friday/Saturday and then just three games next week. However, if this is a keeper league, you need to hold onto him.
Matt Larkin: He was never a particularly rosterable player for me this season anyway. Owen Power’s real-life outlook is very exciting, but big blue-chippers like him can take years to grow into their offense. His statistical profile doesn’t move the needle in fantasy right now. He’ll finish with 30 to 35 points and will be below average in other categories, so you can drop him unless it’s a keeper league.
For players making their NHL debut this season that will still have rookie status (>26 GP) for next year, who do you think will have the biggest offensive impact next season?
— Distinct Kicking Motion (@KingWatts02) March 22, 2023Nick Alberga: I should preface by saying that prospects are far from my level of expertise. That said, some guys to potentially target: NSH Luke Evangelista, VAN Aatu Raty, CHI Lukas Reichel, and MIN Marco Rossi are four guys I’d monitor. Additionally, there’s some of the college guys about to turn pro/have turned pro: ARI Logan Cooley, TOR Matthew Knies, BUF Devon Levi etc..
Brock Seguin: Devon Levi. He’s probably going to be the Sabres’ No.1 netminder next season, so he’ll probably be the best fantasy rookie not named Conor Bedard next season. It’s usually tough for rookies to make a huge fantasy splash, but if you’re the No.1 goalie for your team, then you’re going to carry plenty of value.
Matt Larkin: Can I cheat and name an NCAA player that will get half a dozen games a few weeks from now? If so, Logan Cooley would be my answer. I expect him to turn pro after the University of Minnesota’s season ends and play a handful of games for Arizona before this season is up. I could see him exceeding 60 points as a rookie next season. Of the guys who have gotten NHL games in already? I’d keep a close eye on Ottawa’s Ridly Greig. He’ll maintain Calder eligibility unless he plays every single game left on Ottawa’s schedule. I like his statistical versatility for banger formats.
I have both Anderson and Raanta. I don’t have IR+ spots left. Do I drop Raanta and grab another goalie?
— Rob Middle (@themiddleman88) March 22, 2023Nick Alberga: Yes. With Pyotr Kochetkov as good as he is, I doubt the Canes are in a rush to bring Raanta back. Easy drop here.
Brock Seguin: Yes. You have to be aggressive with your roster moves at this point of the year. Don’t hold onto a guy that isn’t playing, you have to maximize your games played to give you the best shot at winning in the fantasy playoffs.
Matt Larkin: I would, especially if you’re in in a head-to-head playoff dogfight. With Frederik Andersen healthy and Pyotr Kochetkov outplaying both of them this season, the Canes have little reason to rush Antti Raanta back. They can give him as much healing time as he needs. From what I understand, he has been back on the ice this week, but the Canes haven’t suggested he’s about to return.