Daily Faceoff is a news site with no direct affiliation to the NHL, or NHLPA

DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Nov. 11

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Nov 11, 2022, 10:59 ESTUpdated: Nov 11, 2022, 12:32 EST
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Nov. 11
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Believe it or not, we’re already one month into the 2022-23 NHL regular season.

And with that, you can bet trade activity has picked up in recent weeks as fantasy managers look to improve their rosters.

Between the key injuries, cold starts and surprises, it’s been another unpredictable start, which as we know by now is par for the course in the hockey world.

Now to your questions:

Nick Alberga: Stop reading this now, get on the phone immediately and start gauging trade interest. For me, Lindholm is your classic sell-high candidate. I don’t think his fantasy value has ever been this high, I don’t think it will ever be again. On top of that, Charlie McAvoy returned to the B’s lineup on Thursday night. Yes, Lindholm picked up a helper, but most notably, he’s off the first power play unit. That’s all you need to know.

Brock Seguin: I was team sell-high on Hampus Lindholm for the last week or so. If you can still get good value for him then I would absolutely do it. I’m not sure what his market will be like now that Charlie McAvoy is back but maybe you can act quickly and swindle and unsuspecting owner. Both Lindholm’s personal and on-ice SH% are 15.4%, so he was a huge regression candidate even without McAvoy. Adding McAvoy into the mix makes regression even more likely. He was also off PP1 yesterday in favour of five forwards.

Matt Larkin: Unbelievable, eh? And also unsustainable. Lindholm has that first-round draft pedigree and is a great real-life defenseman, impactful at both ends of the ice, but as a fantasy commodity? Meh. In his first nine NHL seasons he never topped 34 points. I find it hard to believe he magically becomes a point-per-game player at 28 when he’s never even averaged half a point per game. Lindholm has averaged 3:21 of power-play time per game this year, and that number should drop with Charlie McAvoy back and likely reclaiming the PP1 spot. So yes, sell high. If I have Lindholm I’m going straight to the Moritz Seider owner for a buy low. “The trade is one for one.”

Nick Alberga: Yeah, that’s the problem, there’s only so many solid fantasy contributors on the back end to go around. So, at this point, you’re probably only looking at some stop-gap options. In-house, the logical replacement for Carlson would be Erik Gustafsson. Externally, John Klingberg, Noah Hanifin, Jake Sanderson, and Vince Dunn are worth a spin. Slim pickings, I know. Also, another guy I’d look at is Jake Bean in Columbus, Zach Werenski went down on Thursday night and didn’t look good.

Brock Seguin: Well, luckily for you, it looks like John Carlson is back today (Friday). But for the sake of naming a few pickups, here are my top D options under 40% rostered: Jake Sanderson (OTT – 38%), Vince Dunn (SEA – 37%), Calen Addison (MIN – 18%), J.J. Moser (ARI – 3%), and Jake Bean (CBJ – 1%). Bean took over for Zach Werenski on CBJ PP1 on Thursday, and should be a fixture on that talented unit while Werenski and Adam Boqvist are sidelined.

Matt Larkin: I’ll add my usual caveat that I don’t know how big your league is, so there’s no way to know who is on your wire. But I’ll do my best. Vince Dunn is out there in more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues and continues to operate as the power-play quarterback on an improved Seattle Kraken team. In the deepest of deep: Chicago’s Caleb Jones is starting to get the most playing time of his career, including PP1 looks, and even had six points in a six-game stretch recently. He’s available in 97 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Nick Alberga: Personally, I’d hold onto Ehlers. Once he’s back, I expect him to return to full bore, especially now that Rick Bowness is behind the bench. That said, if you can garner a good offer that could improve your team, I don’t see why you wouldn’t investigate that situation further.

As for the second question, over my many years of playing fantasy hockey, I’ve always had a tough time dealing guys I plucked off waivers for legitimate value. Furthermore, I always get the same response, “if I wanted that guy, I would’ve picked him up.” Long story short, you need to find a trade partner who genuinely believes in the long-term sustainability of files like Necas. You can try your best to package the two, but I’m not sure you’ll be able to get fair value. All it takes is one offer, I guess.

Brock Seguin: I love packaging players together like that, if you’re getting the best player in the deal, it’s a good thing. Also, if you can get draft day value for Ehlers, then do it. If you can’t, then I’m fine with holding onto him; he’s expected to skate in the very near future.

Matt Larkin: Ehlers is a great player on a per-game basis, but his body continues to break down on him. He missed nine games in 2020-21, 20 games last season and has already missed 10 this season. If you can get a top-50 player for him, pounce, but are you sure you can? You may have to shoot for top-75 or top-100.

As for waiver-wire 2 for 1s: it’s delicate. If you brazenly pick up a guy and package him for a top-30 player the next day, chances are you’re going to insult the other GM or, worse yet, earn a reputation as a used-car GM who can’t be trusted. If you go the 2 for 1 approach using a guy you just got off waivers, think of it as: “If I even get a five percent upgrade on my existing player, who cares about losing the waiver guy I just picked up?” So you offer Ehlers + Necas for a player juuust better than Ehlers.

Nick Alberga: Firstly, I know people are losing their minds over St. Louis’ pitiful start, but if there’s one team who can recover from this, it’s probably them. Afterall, they did this in 2019 on route to a Stanley Cup. So, on Schenn, I’d stay the course.

Meantime, I would do the same with Boeser, too. I look at this way: Yeah, you’re fed up with these guys, but who’s going to be available on the wire that’s a better long-term solution? It’s a long season, don’t forget that.

Brock Seguin: Depending on the league categories, there’s an argument for both. If it’s a banger league, I think Schenn is more valuable. The shot volume is terribly concerning, but it seems to be taking a positive turn in recent games. If hits aren’t a factor, I like Boeser more. His shot volume is more desirable, and if he stays healthy (big if), he could pot 20 goals from here on out, and the assist production has been a welcomed surprise so far.

Matt Larkin: If we’re talking “long term” as in keeper league? Schenn worries me because he’s 31 and power forwards’ games often fall off a cliff in their early 30s (David Backes, Wayne Simmonds). Third-line or not, he’s still fine this year, almost a point per game. It might be time to slap the “overrated” label on Boeser, a great pure shooting talent who gets hurt too much to actually help you with huge goal totals. That said: zero goals this season means positive regression is coming. You can get him for dirt cheap right now. Buy low if you can get him for 50 cents on the dollar from a frustrated GM.

Nick Alberga: Unfortunately, there’s not much you can do now that he’s injured. That said, I wouldn’t overreact to the slow start. In situations like this one where the player has moved on from the only franchise they’ve ever known, it’s always important to humanize things. I always like to bring up Joe Pavelski. He had a dreadful start to his tenure in Dallas, now look what he’s doing. Be patient. These guys are humans, too.

Brock Seguin: I don’t think you can do anything except be patient. He’s shooting 5.0 percent, 7.5 percent lower than his career average. And the combo of Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm have an on-ice SH% of just 2.1 percent at 5v5. So things are going to get better. They’re too talented to continue at a 2.1% clip. And you can’t really trade him; his value is too low, you’ll never retain draft day value.

Matt Larkin: Ugh. I did wonder going into the season if the shift to a hockey-hotbed market would affect Huberdeau mentally. Based on him publicly apologizing for his play so far, I think it has. Most alarming is that all his chance-creation metrics are at career-worst levels. So I don’t think 115-point Huberdeau is coming back. That said, I still think he can be a point-per-game player. I wouldn’t trade him unless you get a second-round value back.

Nick Alberga: Damn, that’s a tough league you’re in, but it’s hard to say without seeing who’s available to pick up. Truth be told, the only thing you can do to find value is to wait for bottom-six guys to gain promotions up the lineup. For example, Dylan Holloway has been elevated once again to Edmonton’s top-six following the Evander Kane injury. If you look hard enough, you’ll be able to find some hidden gems. Additionally, just keep it locked to the Daily Faceoff line combo page.

Brock Seguin: Some players under 10% rostered that are hopefully available for you that I really like. 

Evan Rodrigues, top-6 and PP1 in Colorado. Valeri Nishuchkin is out for at least one month, and Rodrigues is playing over 20 minutes per game some nights. 

Mikael Backlund is a nice bottom-6 option, he’s still playing around 17 minutes per game, and his shot volume has reached a career-high. He’s on pace for 258 shots, 

Alex Wennberg is just 2% rostered, and he’s on the Kraken top line with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky. That line is playing great, Wennberg has eight points (3G / 5A) in 14 games and is playing around 19 minutes per game. He won’t score you a lot of goals but should chip in an assist every other game with some power-play help as well.

Matt Larkin: OK. So there are a couple different routes to take here. One is to find the “bad team guys” who are underrated because they kill your plus-minus. Nick Ritchie has 16 goals, 101 hits and 101 shots in 36 games as an Arizona Coyote dating back to last season. Not bad for a third-liner, though his league-best shooting percentage is unsustainable. Another path: seek a young gun currently in the middle or bottom six who has potential to climb. Jonatan Berggen intrigues me in Detroit. He has ripped up the AHL and just got his first NHL recall. He might not start in the top six but could climb if he shines.



MORE FACEOFF.IN YOUR INBOX.
CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE TO OUR DAILY NEWSLETTER
Keep scrolling for more content!