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DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Nov. 4

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Nov 4, 2022, 13:57 EDT
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Nov. 4
Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Just like that, we’re into month two of the 2022-23 fantasy hockey season.

So, what have we learned so far?

Well, for starters, it’s still Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and then everybody else. Additionally, goalies don’t like making saves in October (talk about punting stat categories). And lastly, everyone needs to stop writing off the Boston Bruins prematurely. What a start for Jim Montgomery and company.

Now to your questions:

Nick Alberga: Nope, I would hold. I’m just chalking this up to early season jitters post massive contract extension. Believe it or not, it happens to a lot of players. This dude’s super talented, he’ll find his way again. And so will the St. Louis Blues.

Brock Seguin: Typically, you want to try, and trade players when their value is at its highest, not its lowest. But with Thomas, I’d be trying to trade him before he doesn’t have any trade value. I think he’s a great player, but he carries limited fantasy value because he just doesn’t shoot the puck. He has 11 shots in nine games, so he’ll probably only score between 15-to-20 goals. If you can get something close to his draft day value (ADP 129.9), like Mark Scheifele (ADP 133.6) then I think that’s a win.

Matt Larkin: Whether the Blues turn things around as a team or not, I’m not too worried about Thomas. I know he’s been demoted to line 3, but he’s still playing 20 minutes a game and centering the top power play unit. If anything, I’d be trying to trade for Thomas as a buy low if I didn’t have him. Main thing to remember though: he’s never going to be an elite fantasy player because he’s not an asset in goals or shots or the banger categories.

Nick Alberga: Easy no for me on both. Raymond’s off to a slow start, it happens with a lot of second-year players in this league. Meantime, Dubois is as streaky as they come, he’ll figure it out. Additionally, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to find a better option than either one of those two right now on the waiver wire. Be patient.

Brock Seguin: If those are my only two options, Dubois. A strict centre is much easier to replace and doesn’t carry as much value. Raymond had a slow start, but I think it would be foolish to drop him. His 8.5 on-ice SH% will improve, and so will his assist totals. The goal production is exactly what we saw last year, so he’s got a 60-point floor.

Matt Larkin: Noooo. Unless your league is comically shallow. I spent a good portion of last week berating an impatient manager in my own league’s group chat for dropping Raymond, resulting in a major contender with a high waiver priority scooping him as a gift. Raymond is far too talented and intelligent for his slow start to last. Dubois, meanwhile, hasn’t been terrible in fantasy anyway. He’s on pace for 25-plus goals and averaging three shots per game. He’s doing his job, more or less.

Nick Alberga: The answer has to be DeBrusk, right? Of course, the conversation would change a bit if Jim Montgomery decided to reunite The Perfection Line on a permanent basis once again. Meanwhile, there’s just something off with Boeser. In terms of fantasy, it’s super hard to trust him right now.

Brock Seguin: DeBrusk for me. The Bruins seem content to have Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk together and Hall-Krejci/Zacha-Pastrnak on the second line, so DeBrusk should have plenty of success this season. Dating back to the start of last season, the trio has averaged an elite 3.93 xGF/60 and 41.0 ScoringChancesFor/60. DeBrusk is in great hands. He’s scored 22 goals with 14 assists (36 points) in his last 44 games–that’s a 41-goal, 26-assist (67-point) per-82 game pace.

Matt Larkin: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but DeBrusk. He’s cooking on the top line, he’s averaging four shots per game and he’s continuing a breakout that actually started last season. It’s not just the barren goal total scaring me for Boeser – it’s the lack of shot volume. He’s clearly not right physically yet.

Nick Alberga: Even though his fantasy value has dipped significantly over the past few seasons, I still have a tough time fading Hall. I know it was five years ago now, but that 2018 Hart Trophy is hard to overlook. Lehkonen’s a good player, but I still wonder about his long-term staying power as a top-six fixture in Colorado. Ideally, he’s a perfect third liner. I love his versatility. It would be Hall for me.

Brock Seguin: I think it’s very close, I think they’ll have very similar goal totals, but I’d imagine Lehkonen finishes with a few more assists. With Gabriel Landeskog out long-term, Lehkonen should be locked into a top-6 role, and he’s playing an incredible 21:04 ATOI right now. He’s also on Colorado’s top PP unit; Hall will likely be on PP2 once David Krejci is back.

Matt Larkin: I’m shocked at how close it is. I still lean Hall because he has the established track record as a skill player and he’s locked into a top-six job on a dominant Boston team. Lehkonen doesn’t have to fill the net to help his team. He’s a handy real-life player. That said, his fantasy potential has exploded. He’s playing a whopping 21:04 per game while toiling on line 2 and PP1 in Colorado. I think he’ll have better short-term value than Hall, but Lehkonen could be a sell high in a month or two before Gabriel Landeskog returns from injury.

Nick Alberga: Provided you have the IR spots available to you, I would stash anyone of those guys right now. Personally, I think Arizona moves Chychrun prior to the deadline, there’s just too much smoke around that situation. Once he’s able to return from injury, there’s no doubt the Coyotes will showcase him heavily. On Wilson, it sounds like January return. He’ll likely slot right back in on Washington’s top line. As for Duclair, it’ll be a while, I still wonder if he can return in time to make an impact on this fantasy season.

Brock Seguin: Chychrun is a difficult case because we don’t know where he’s going to be playing. But wherever it is, he’ll probably score at a 15-goal, 30-assist per-82 game pace: a solid No.4 fantasy defenseman and a good stash. 

The Capitals need Wilson back badly. They have not been impressive at all. Upon his return, Wilson will be his typical self, 20-goal, 30-assist, 225-hit per-82 game pace. 

Duclair probably shouldn’t be clogging up an IR spot unless you have a bunch of them. He was very fortunate to have the season he did last year, and it’s hard to figure out where he’ll slot into that lineup once he returns. If he’s back with Barkov, he’ll deserve a look, but until then, I’m fine leaving him on waivers.

Matt Larkin: I think you’ve ranked them in the order I would for the rest of the season. Chychrun is probably the closest to returning, though a recent setback in his wrist injury recovery rendered him week to week. If and when he’s traded, he could land in a spot that immediately makes him a top-20 fantasy blueliner. Wilson will have second-half value as he’ll immediately resume his first-line gig in Washington, but a player who crashes and bangs like him might take time feeling normal coming off a torn ACL. As for Duclair…when it’s a major Achilles injury, you really can’t count on him helping this season at all. Even if he returns by the early winter, it may take him time to find his trademark speed.

Nick Alberga: Sure. The start’s been insane, but don’t fool yourself, Buffalo is in transition mode when it comes to their goaltending. In a perfect world, they want Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to be the guy, but only time will tell on that front. Devon Levi is another name to watch. Translation: For the time being, I think it’s Comrie, long-term, not so much.  

Brock Seguin: It appears as if he’ll at least see the larger side of a 60-40 split. Craig Anderson is 41 years old and probably isn’t starting more than 30 games. Comrie should settle in around 50 unless he starts playing terribly.

Matt Larkin: For this season? Looks like it so far. Craig Anderson has outplayed him, but I don’t see Anderson starting the lion’s share of the games given his advanced age. Comrie isn’t as much of an “out of nowhere” story as he may seem, either. He had a pretty strong junior career and was a solid prospect when the Winnipeg Jets drafted him. The only thing to keep an eye on: if the Sabres keep winning and find themselves contending for a playoff spot, do they consider pursuing an upgrade later in the season? For now, though, I lean Comrie. Keeper league: Devon Levi is the Sabres goalie you want.

Nick Alberga: Remember Ryan Ellis’ meteoric rise to the NHL after an impressive Junior career? Yeah, that’s how I felt about Addison entering the season. He’s a fantastic power play quarterback, and at this point, that’s pretty much it. Over time, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of player he evolves into —if anything. For now, I would sit tight, he’s got a lot of offensive talent. And how could you not love the constant exposure to Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy?

Brock Seguin: I like Addison as your No.4 fantasy defenseman. He’s on the top PP unit for a great team and should continue to pick up assists but won’t score you many goals. He doesn’t shoot enough. He’s basically Rasmus Andersson, but you didn’t have to spend an 11th-round pick on him.

Matt Larkin: He’s pretty much exactly what I expected him to be this season. He made the Wild out of camp and saw PP1 time in the pre-season, and I told anyone who would listen to use a late-round pick on him. He’s cooled down a little bit, but a mini slump is understandable from a rookie. And since no one spent big to get him in their fantasy draft, I doubt it’s hurting anyone’s team too much to hold him. He’ll get hot again soon. He’s still on PP1.

Nick Alberga: Easy drop. Slavin’s a tremendous player, but unfortunately, his game hasn’t really ever translated well to the fantasy world. He’s more the type of player you take a flier on when he’s riding a heater or the Canes have a busy schedule.

Brock Seguin: Depending on who’s on free agents in your league, drop him. He’s a great real-life defenseman but doesn’t carry much fantasy value. He doesn’t play on the power-play, so he’s never going to put up massive point totals. He has a 4.7 on-ice SH%, so his assist totals will improve, but last year’s 42 points is likely as good as it’s going to get.

Matt Larkin: Slavin is an outstanding real-life shutdown blueliner, but he’s never moved the needle for me in fantasy, not even when he picked up a career-high 42 points last season. Offense is a bonus feature in his game. It’s not the key component of it. He can usually get you 30 points or so by virtue of being on the ice so much and playing on a strong team, but he’s not typically a power-play fixture. Great defenseman, but not a natural offensive defenseman. Drop him or trade him unless you’re in a very deep league.

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