DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Oct. 14
If the first couple of games are any indication, we’re in for another wild and chaotic fantasy hockey season.
In total, 29 of the 32 NHL teams have now played at least one game. Winnipeg and Detroit will kick things off tonight while St. Louis gets going tomorrow night.
Let’s get to your questions:
Murray or Samsonov? Or don’t take any of them
— Thomas (@ts3654) October 13, 2022Nick Alberga: Full disclosure, you’re playing with fire —at least in my opinion. Both goalies come to Toronto with some baggage but find me one who hasn’t in recent memory. Personally, I think they really want the Murray project to work out, not to mention his attachment to generam manager Kyle Dubas. I’d grab Murray and keep Samsonov on your watch list.
Brock Seguin: Overreaction time! Based on two games, it looks like Samsonov early in the season. If one of them can take over, they have substantial fantasy value. I still think Murray has No.3 fantasy upside because of the team quality. He needs to get that glove hand figured out though!
Matt Larkin: In a shallow league: I’d avoid the headache unless you can draft both and stream all Toronto Maple Leafs goalie starts, as there will be value in those thanks to big win totals. In deeper leagues, I like Murray as the short-term add but I prefer Samsonov long-term. Murray can’t seem to get through a season without getting hurt anymore. Samsonov has some injury history, too, but not as extensive as Murray’s.
What up @DFOFantasy @thegoldenmuzzy who should I keep. Only room for 1 of these vets. Anze kopitar or Blake wheeler? Also shesty vs vasi? What’s the statline breakdown. Who wins me more categories W/gaa/s%…etc. thanks!!
— Pash (@postmanpash) October 12, 2022Nick Alberga: Kopitar; no need to even think about it. Mark my words: That Kempe, Kopitar, Fiala line is going to be money in the bank for Los Angeles this season. As for your second question, you’re splitting hairs. That said, I’d give a slight edge to Shesterkin, but it’s close. I think Tampa will really miss Ryan McDonagh.
Brock Seguin: Wheeler and Kopitar have very similar fantasy profiles. Both will be around 20 goals, 50 assists, 20 PPP and 185 shots. So, it all depends on your team’s needs, but in a vacuum, Wheeler’s wing eligibility is the tiebreaker for me.
In Roto leagues, I have Shesterkin as the No.1. If you’re in a points league where wins are more valuable, I still think it’s Vasilevskiy, but Shesterkin is the Roto king right now.
Matt Larkin: Kopitar for sure. He’s a year younger, locked into No. 1 center job, plays more minutes than Wheeler. As for Shesterkin vs. Vasilevskiy: I’m jealous. You have BOTH ON YOUR TEAM?! Vasy has the edge in wins, saves, shutouts – volume categories. But I prefer Shesterkin for GAA and SV%, the rate stats.
Drafted Talbot who is now on the shelf, which goalies should i be targeting on the waiver wire?
— James C (@jawc15) October 13, 2022Nick Alberga: At this point, all you can do is monitor the wire and wait for an injury or something. It’s probably too early to go the trade direction. If you’re steadfast on adding someone immediately, Semyon Varlamov, Vitek Vanecek and Cal Petersen could be your best bets. For now, I’d take a wait and see approach, though.
Brock Seguin: Anton Forsberg was the answer last week, but he’s nearly 70% rostered at this point. John Gibson (58% rostered) looked sharp in his debut and doesn’t have many back-to-backs early in the season. James Reimer (24%) looks like an OK bandaid solution if you need to dig a little deeper. The Sharks have a pretty forgiving schedule for the next few weeks.
Matt Larkin: Always tough to answer a question like this without context. How big is your league? How many goalies do you start? But I’ll try to guess for you here. Naturally, his direct replacement Anton Forsberg would be the easy choice, but maybe he’s gone in your league. Some other goalies owned fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues you could target: Vitek Vanecek (Devils could surprise), Antti Raanta (great rate stats when he plays), or Jake Allen (at least he’ll get you volume stats given his large role). Vanecek is the preferred add.
Hi Nick, I got 2 bottom of roster guys I picked up due to IR stashing Jenner and Karlsson(spare d) With boeser back I will be dropping karlsson but I am debating dropping one of o’rielly or Jenner for Holloway cause of the huge potential. What do you think?
— Anthony Maltese (@maltesea) October 12, 2022Nick Alberga: Simple answer for me, it’s the rookie Holloway. Jenner and O’Reilly are key offensive components for their respective squads, can you say the same for Holloway? Right now, no. He has a bright future, but I’m expecting some turbulence along the way.
Brock Seguin: Holloway has terrific upside but don’t let the pre-season hype train run you over. I don’t want to overreact, but he only played 8:06 in the season opener. Sure, he started with Leon Draisaitl but quickly fell to a line with Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan. He needs a bigger, more consistent role if he’s going to make a significant fantasy impact.
Matt Larkin: Think of Ryan O’Reilly this way: his absolute floor is 55 points, right? And a 55-point season from Holloway would make him a massive success and Calder Trophy candidate. Everything has to break perfectly for Holloway to outproduce O’Reilly. With Jenner, you can at least consider Holloway because Jenner isn’t a lock to stay on Columbus’ top line (and was even moved off it at times in Game 1 of the season). If it’s a keeper league, it’s an easy call to grab Holloway. Even in a redraft league, I lean yes, but it’s close.
When Landeskog returns, who will be bumped from PP1, Lehkonen or Nichushkin?
— Chas (@Chas87622553) October 13, 2022Nick Alberga: This one’s hard to handicap, both are very versatile players for Jared Bednar. If you’re putting a gun to my head, I’d say Lehkonen gets the first shot to stick on PP1. After all, he inherited the role when Nazem Kadri went down in last year’s playoffs. A lot can happen between now and when Landeskog’s ready to return. We’ll see how it plays out.
Brock Seguin: Impossible to say for sure, but when Kadri was out in the playoffs it was Lehkonen on the top unit. MacKinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen-Lehkonen-Makar. So, Lehkonen would be my guess.
Matt Larkin: It’s a difficult situation to predict, as both are plucky two-way wingers who can play the left or right side. Their power play time was identical in Game 1 of the season. My guess would be Lehkonen getting a chance over Nichushkin because Nichushkin spends more time on the penalty kill. Including the playoffs, Lehkonen has 16 goals in 37 games with the Avalanche, putting him at a 35-goal pace over a full season. Now that he’s found a goal-scorer’s touch, I lean to him staying on PP1.