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DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Oct. 21

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Oct 21, 2022, 11:37 EDTUpdated: Oct 21, 2022, 12:06 EDT
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Oct. 21
Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

To quote the great Bob Cole, “everything is happening!”

We’re just days into another season, and already, fantasy owners are being tasked with making some crucial decisions.

Lucky for you, here at Daily Faceoff, we have a weekly mailbag available at your disposal to help guide you through the chaos.

Now to your questions:

Timo Meier + Tage Thompson

Nick Alberga: To be brutally honest, based on ADP, I faded these guys in my drafts to begin with. San Jose is really bad; I’m just not sure who’s going to get Meier the puck consistently. As for Thompson, I’m fascinated to see how he plays with the newly added pressure of living up to his big, fat new contract. In the long run, both will be fine, I’m just not very interested in either at the moment.

Brock Seguin:

Not a fluke with Timo Meier, who is one of the best buy-low options on the market right now. There are going to be dry spells, it’s just more obvious at the start of the season. Meier had a six game stretch last year where he had no goals on 25 shots. Identical to this stretch to start the season. He went on to score 10 goals with eight assists (18 points) in his next 12 games. He’s streaky but the shot volume remains elite (13.8 SOG/60) so the goals are coming, he’ll still get to 35 this year. 

Tage Thompson I’m a little more worried about. His shot generation has dipped pretty considerably early-on. He needs to shoot more if he’s going to come anywhere close to getting back to 30 goals.

Matt Larkin: Not a fluke for Meier. He’s been a valuable fantasy commodity for several years thanks to his huge shot volume. He just put it all together last year. He’s a great buy low. As for Thompson? Maybe he’s feeling the pressure after signing a huge contract, but, meh, it’s been three games and he has a goal. Way too soon to worry.

Cole Caufield

Nick Alberga: At the very least, considering how hot he’s started, I’d swing for the fences and hope for a bite. It’s early, but rest assured, there are some impatient fantasy owners out there. I would look to acquire someone who was ranked in the top-30 to start the season.

Brock Seguin: Kyle Connor. He’s a player I loved coming into the season and was going very early in draft. I’m sure Connor owners are frustrated with the early return so far (1G / 1A in four games). He’s still going to be a 40-goal scorer, it’s just a slow start. Whereas Caufield’s start has been outstanding but he’s not going to shoot 20 percent. I don’t know if it will get accepted but I have a buddy that turned Nick Suzuki into Jonathan Huberdeau already, so anything is possible.

Matt Larkin: It depends on your positional needs, of course. But a nice target to me would be a proven star off to a slow start – a first-round talent wouldn’t be attainable but maybe a second- or third-round value. Meier is a great example. Maybe J.T. Miller. Alex DeBrincat. Someone in that tier who has a superior fantasy environment for the whole season.

The Flyers

Nick Alberga: No, they’re not. They’ll come crashing back down to reality eventually, you’ll see. If I had to rank those four, I’d go DeAngelo, Konecny, Hart, and then Hayes. Furthermore, I think DeAngelo will have a steady season, it’s just important to be reasonable with expectations. He’s produced everywhere he’s been.

Brock Seguin: I like players who shoot the puck a lot. Konecny is firing 3.8 shots per game so far and is averaging over 20:00 ATOI. So he’s definitely legit, he could have a 30-plus goal season. Hayes, I’m more concerned about because once Sean Couturier returns, Hayes probably won’t have the best linemates. He’s got a 15.4 on-ice SH%, so that’s definitely coming down, given his surrounding cast. His start seems flukier than Konecny’s. Lastly, DeAngelo is legit, he’s been productive at every stop. He’s playing huge minutes (25:02 ATOI) and there’s just enough talent for their PP1 to be at least league-average this season. I still think he’s a sell-high candidate, but if you have to hold onto him, he’ll be serviceable this season.

Matt Larkin: Naw. I expect them to be more competitive under coach John Tortorella for sure, but these are low-ceiling fantasy commodities – with the possible exception of Hart. If the Flyers can even be a .500 team, they should be stingy, and Hart could have a sneaky-decent year.

Nick Alberga: Definitely, I think he is. In fact, ever since going public with a trade request last November – one he’s since rescinded – the winger has tallied 24 goals and 41 points in 64 outings. Prorated over 82 games, that’s a 31-goal pace. Most importantly, he’s formed tremendous chemistry with Patrice Bergeron, so I could definitely see him sticking on the top-line once Brad Marchand returns.  

Brock Seguin: Yeah, I think he is. In his last 22 games (dating back to last season), he’s scored 12 goals with nine assists (21 points) and has 74 shots on goal (3.4 SOG/gm). That’s the kind of shot volume that makes this production sustainable. He will likely spend the entire year with Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci, so he’s in good hands. If he maintains this shot volume, DeBrusk could score 35 goals with 35 assists this year.  

Matt Larkin: Sort of? He’s not going to be a point-per game player, and he could slide down Boston’s depth chart when Brad Marchand returns. That said, I believe in DeBrusk as a goal scorer. He averages 24 goals per 82 games in his career despite his inconsistency, and he has 20 goals in his last 37 games dating back to last season.

Nick Alberga: There’s no need to overreact here, but as long as Tyson Barrie’s in the mix, Jay Woodcroft will continue flip-flopping between the two. In the long run, there’s no doubt in my mind that Bouchard has the tools to be Edmonton’s permanent No. 1 PP QB.

Brock Seguin: I was extremely high on Bouchard coming into the season, but his start is extremely worrisome. We were hoping for more ice time and potentially PP1 time. Instead, he’s played less and isn’t seeing the PP1 time. He did play 20:31 on Thursday, which is a positive sign. If he continues to play 20 minutes, he’ll be OK, even with PP2 usage. I think he’s a solid buy-low option right now because I don’t think he will continue to play ≈16:00 TOI/gm. He’s the future PP1 QB of this team it seems, and I think he has 20 goal, 40-50 assist upside when that happens. But until Tyson Barrie is no longer with the team, I don’t think he’s going to get an extended look in that role.

Matt Larkin: In the short term: yes. I hate seeing that ice time down almost four minutes from last year. Tyson Barrie is a pain in the neck for Bouchard owners as Barrie is on PP1 right now. I still have enormous faith in Bouchard’s fantasy future as a D-man you can trust for 50 points and 200 shots a year. He needs to get back on PP1 for that to happen this season, though.

Nick Alberga: Nope, sit tight. Even though the numbers aren’t there, the shot attempts are. The Canucks will have no problem scoring this season, so that’s enough motivation for me to test Kuzmenko out for a little while and see what he can do. He’ll get cooking.

Brock Seguin: No, I’m not dropping Kuzmenko yet. It still looks like he will play primarily with Elias Pettersson, who has been terrific so far. There are encouraging signs. He’s averaging 3.2 shots per game, and his ice time has been consistent. Both his personal and on-ice SH% are at 6.3 percent, and both of those rates are going to improve. You wouldn’t even notice if this three-game slump happened in the middle of the season. So don’t panic with Kuzmenko. He’ll be just fine.

Matt Larkin: Not yet. He has two points in his first five NHL games and he’s playing second line and PP1. That’s fantasy-friendly usage. If he’s not delivering by November? We can revisit this question. I don’t keep KHL imports on super-long leashes.

Nick Alberga: Honestly, I wish I had psychic abilities, I’d love to see what becomes of Couturier this season. For me, the only way to play this is to take a wait and see approach. Yes, I think that pace is sustainable, but can he stay in the lineup is my question. Putting it bluntly, his injury history scares the hell out of me.

Brock Seguin: Yeah, I have Couturier stashed in a deeper league. I think he’ll come back and play massive minutes on a Flyers team that isn’t very deep. They have enough solid wingers (Konecny, Farabee) to help Couturier be fantasy relevant. He should be able to score at a 25-goal, 35-assist per 82-game pace once he gets back

Matt Larkin: Pace? Yes. He’s still entrusted as the team’s all-situations leader and shutdown center, so he’ll get a ton of ice time once he’s at full speed. Before last season, he’d eclipsed a 60-point pace in four consecutive years. Whether Couturier can stay in the lineup once he’s back is a different question. I’m not optimistic about that.

Nick Alberga: Full disclosure, I loved Wahlstrom as a dark horse breakout candidate entering the season. The sample size is small, but the former Brick tournament standout is off to a very good start. Most importantly, he’ll have to earn the good graces of new bench boss Lane Lambert in order to gain a permanent top-six promotion, something he couldn’t accomplish under Barry Trotz. Just put him on your watch list for now.

Brock Seguin: Wahlstrom should be productive if the Islanders give him a decent role. Barry Trotz was reluctant to do that; it looks like things might be different under Lane Lambert. He’s got a lethal shot but needs more ice time. I think he’s worth a pick-up right now and see how things play out over the weekend and into next week. The Islanders have two games this weekend and play Wednesday/Friday next week, so he’s a solid streaming option. If they drop his usage again, cut bait.

Matt Larkin: Bait unless it’s a deep league. He has that first-round pedigree, but the Isles never seem to trust him. Even after a coaching change, he’s playing just 12 minutes a night. I don’t see him sustaining his pace unless he gets more ice time and PP1 work.

Nick Alberga: Unequivocally, the answer is yes. Early on, I’ve seen nothing from Petersen that suggests he’s ready to grab Los Angeles’ crease ahead of veteran Jonathan Quick. He’s been awful, he can’t make a save. You can always circle back later in the season once he proves his worth. Furthermore, Varlamov should be able rack up some wins for you, and undeniably, Vejmelka will continue to be pelted with shots.

Brock Seguin: Varlamov, for sure. The Islanders are certainly a better team than the Coyotes. Vejmelka will likely get shelled in most of his outings. Varlamov is still very good; he’s just limited because Ilya Sorokin is a stud. But you can feel pretty confident every time Varlamov gets the call. Including this weekend, the Islanders have a back-to-back in three of the next four weeks, so Varlamov will see some action.

Matt Larkin: Over Petersen, yes. He was ineffective last year and can’t seem to win the net back from Jonathan Quick. Vejmelka? It depends. If your league only counts wins and saves, I’d hold Vejmelka over Varlamov as Vejmelka should play a lot more (he currently leads the NHL in saves). If your league counts GAA and SV% in addition to wins, Varlamov over Vejmelka.

Nick Alberga: I’m feeling what Vilardi has done so far, but it’s tough to look past his third line deployment. In addition to that, everything’s going in for him right now, these are not sustainable numbers. Meantime, Boeser and Jenner have been top-six fixtures early on. And I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. 

Brock Seguin: I really like adding Vilardi right now, but not sure I would if those were my drop options. Vilardi is shooting 28.6 percent with an on-ice SH% of 16.0 percent. Both rates are unsustainable, so he’ll cool off. Plus, I think he’s capped out around 16:15 ATOI. The Kings’ top-six seems pretty set in stone, so it’s hard to envision his role growing. If you’re keen on adding Vilardi, Boeser would be the one I would drop. Injury history, and added depth/competition in Vancouver are concerns for me regarding Boeser.

Matt Larkin: Tempting, but no. Vilardi has been a revelation early on, but he has scored on a hilariously unsustainable 30.8 percent of his shots, and he’s playing on the third line. Jenner is playing 20-plus minutes a night and on the Gaudreau line. Boeser will be fine – he’s just working his way back from that hand injury.

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