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DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Oct. 28

Nick Alberga
Nick Alberga(@thegoldenmuzzy)
Oct 28, 2022, 10:37 EDTUpdated: Nov 4, 2022, 11:40 EDT
DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Oct. 28
Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

If you had no clue Halloween was just around the corner, a quick glance at this week’s mailbag questions would have you running for the hills.

It’s not even November, and already, there’s a palpable sense of panic across the fantasy hockey community. And it’s not that Scream type of panic either.

For the record, unequivocally, Halloween candy can and should qualify as comfort food.

Now to your questions:

Nick Alberga: I understand your impatience, but I’d circle back with the Burns question in say a month or two from now. It’s important to humanize the situation. He was in San Jose for a long time, it’s fair to expect some turbulence.

Same type of deal to an extent for Weegar. Give it some time, it’s super early. To be fair, he was a draft fade for me because of the lack of clarity surrounding PP1 QB.

Brock Seguin: Hold Burns. He’ll be fine, he has no goals on 22 shots. He’s on pace for 300 shots for the first time since 2019. If he reaches that mark, he could score 20 goals. Also, DeAngelo carried a 13.0 on-ice SH% last season, and Burns is at 9.5 right now, so it’s more of a team issue (which will correct itself) than Burns specifically. 

It depends on the league format, he’ll still have value in banger leagues, but I was not a fan of Weegar in the pre-draft process. His ADP was outrageously high (ADP – 81.0) for someone who won’t be on the Flames’ top power-play unit. His 6.1 on-ice SH% suggests his assist numbers will start to improve but he only has nine shots on goal, so you’ll be lucky to get five or six goals out of him this season if that shot volume continues. I’d sell if you can get anything close to his draft-day value.

Matt Larkin: Way too early to worry about Burns. He has four points in six games. He’s on pace for 54 points! He’s not scoring goals yet, but I don’t see a problem here at all. He’ll be fine despite his advanced age. His role is secure and fantasy friendly.

Not sure what you mean about Weegar, either. He’s on pace for 41 points (he had 44 last year), 191 hits (he had 179 last year) and 123 blocks (he had 156 last year). Are you referring to his PIM total being much lower? I still think it’s early to worry about that, too. The sample size remains miniscule here. I’d hold.

Nick Alberga: Definitely. If those are the league settings, I would roster as many goalies as possible. Not for anything, but you can always broker one off in a trade down the road to fix a problem elsewhere on your roster. 

Brock Seguin: Yeah, I would probably hold an extra goalie (as long as they’re good enough) and use that last bench spot as a rotating streaming spot. With limited bench space, I would be trying to maximize my games played and max out the pickups each week, streaming players that are playing on the quieter nights in the NHL (typically Monday, Wednesday, Friday & Sunday) to make sure you can get them in your lineup. Chances are most of your friends and family aren’t doing this, and that will give you a leg up on the competition.

Matt Larkin: Absolutely. If your league weighs points that strongly for goalies above skaters, I wouldn’t even stop at one extra goalie. I’d roll with four or five total. Game the system, baby! I’m guessing you’re doing well in this league so far.

Nick Alberga: Long-term, Robertson has significant fantasy appeal. He has the speed and the shot to be a difference maker. That said, it’s a crowded top-six in Toronto, his stock will be hampered by the fact that he’ll provide little to nothing on the power play. We’ll see if Sheldon Keefe jumbles up the lines over the next little while.

Meantime, yes, I still think Beniers has the highest upside amongst rookies. Additionally, I wouldn’t sleep on Logan Thompson either. The 25-year-old goaltender is well positioned to have a monster season for the Golden Knights. He’s looked solid early on.

Brock Seguin: Robertson’s position on the depth chart seems to be pretty shaky. The Maple Leafs are struggling a bit out of the gate, so they will tinker until they find something that works. As long as he’s playing in the top-six, he’s a worthwhile streaming option, but the lack of PP usage limits his upside.

Yes, I much prefer Beniers. He’s the clear front-runner for the Calder Trophy. He’s played over 20 minutes on several occasions already, and the Kraken offence looks much improved. He has 16 points in 19 career NHL games, that’s a 69-point pace over 82 games.

Matt Larkin: Robertson has high fantasy potential. He’s a natural goal scorer and he’s playing in Toronto’s top six. He has the ceiling to be a 30- or 40-goal scorer in the NHL. He does have some boom/bust to his game, though. Because he’s an all-offense player, he needs to be on a scoring line. If he isn’t, he’s a threat to be demoted to the AHL.

As for Beniers, yes, he’s the rookie you want above all others. He’s locked into a first-line center role in Seattle without much competition. Honourable mention to Mason McTavish. And keep an eye on Marco Rossi in Minnesota as his role grows.

Nick Alberga: For Quick, I’d take a wait and see approach, L.A. has been a trainwreck defensively so far. Depending on league format, though, I’d contemplate scooping him up for sure. At this point, I’ve seen nothing from Cal Petersen that suggests he’ll be pushing for that No. 1 job anytime soon. Furthermore, I think the Kings are bound to clean things up sooner rather than later.

Brock Seguin: Quick is one of the most difficult goalies to project. He should be solid. The Kings are a top-10 defensive team at 5v5 and have a top-10 penalty kill. However, his .878 SV% is the reason he’s on the waiver wire. If you’re desperate in goal, I think he’s fine, and you have to be picky with your matchups because he should still start the lion’s share of the games…Cal Petersen’s SV% (.842) is even worse.

Matt Larkin: It’s always relative. If you’re in an extremely deep league in which the wire is barren and every starting goalie gets snapped up: sure, add Quick. In a relatively shallow league in which the wire has plenty of starting options: no rush to add Quick, who hasn’t been even an average fantasy goaltender for years, save for a great first half last season.

Is Beniers worth the keep as my 3C? (Only 2 C starting roster spots) or use the spot at a streamer spot, riding hot players on the wire? My other 2Cs are Hughes & Suzuki. (TWEET DELETED)

Nick Alberga: Personally, I would hold on to Beniers —depending on league format, of course. Even though he’s had an up and down start, I still see a pathway to 60 points for him this season. In addition, Seattle is much better offensively, they’re going to score some goals, which has been better on the eyes.

Brock Seguin: I like Beniers, so I wouldn’t drop him. Given what he’s done to this point, he could score 30 goals with 40 assists this season if all goes well. He’s playing a prominent role on that team, and they’re scoring a lot more goals. If you only want to hold onto two centres, I think the best play is to try and sell high on Suzuki. Suzuki and Caufield have put up great numbers thus far, but they don’t look sustainable. So, trade Suzuki and keep Beniers as you 2C.

Matt Larkin: If you’re in a relatively deep league, Beniers is easily worth holding onto. But if you’re only starting two centers, I’m going to guess you play in a relatively shallow league. In that case, there could be merit to dropping Beniers and streaming centers. I’d do so if your league is in the range of only 10 or 12 teams and rosters of 10-12 players.

Nick Alberga: Yup, that’s the only play here. Like most goal scorers, he’s very streaky, his goals normally come in bunches. If you dangle him on the trade market, you’ll get nowhere close to market value right now. Patience is a virtue; sit tight.

Brock Seguin: I’m no Reinhart truther, but he’ll be fine. In fact, he has the eighth-highest TOI among forwards in the NHL (21:42), and his shot volume is at a career-high as a result. He’s not going to shoot 0.0 percent all season, he still has 30-goal upside at his current rate. His 6.8 on-ice SH% will improve as well, helping the assist totals. It’s been a tough stretch, but better days should be ahead.

Matt Larkin: Yes, stay the course. He has been an extremely streaky player for most of his career. You don’t want to trade him now either, as you won’t get fair value. So hold onto him. I say this as someone who owns Reinhart in my main league.

Nick Alberga: All things being equal, I don’t think your d-corps is as bad as you think it is.  To answer your question, Morrissey would be the one to go for me. I love what I’ve seen from Montour since Ekblad went down and the other guys listed are really starting to pick up their pace.

Brock Seguin: That blueline isn’t half bad for the “zero D draft strategy.” Either Morrissey or Bouchard. Bouchard’s usage still concerns me, and I’m not sure he will crack that top power-play unit any time soon. Morrissey is already a fixture on Winnipeg’s PP1, but his current shot volume (3.5 SOG/60) severely limits his goal-scoring upside. So if you want to keep the most upside, drop Morrissey and keep Bouchard. If you want the safer option, drop Bouchard and keep Morrissey. If this were my team, though, I’d be trying to trade one of them as opposed to dropping them. I think you could get a good return on someone like Calen Addison and bring in a forward. Addison is going to pick up a lot of assists on the Wild’s PP1, but he won’t score many goals.

Matt Larkin: “Useless” is a pretty loaded word here. Seider? Bouchard? Useless? I wish I could play in your league and make you offers for them. And Addison is scoring at a point-per-game pace a rookie. What more could you want? If I’m cutting one, I lean Montour since his minutes will eventually shrink when Aaron Ekblad returns. But overall I’m confused – most of the guys you mentioned are performing well! Save for Bouchard and Seider who should be OK in the long run.

Nick Alberga: Yeah, I’d dump him. Obviously, there’s a lot of untapped potential with Lafreniere, but until I see it consistently, I’m fading indefinitely.

Brock Seguin: I’m not ready to give up on Lafrenière just yet. His shot volume remains very strong (11.6 SOG/60), and the line of Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière has produced outstanding metrics. They carry a 3.9 xGF/60 and 40.3 ScoringChancesFor/60 but are shooting just 7.9 percent. All of these are signs of bad luck for Lafrenière so far, so I think the points will start to come as long as he continues to skate with Panarin and Trocheck.

Matt Larkin: Almost, but not quite. I still like Lafreniere’s upside as long as he’s getting looks in a top-six role, which he currently is. If he gets demoted to the third line again, you have my blessing to drop him in a deeper league.

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