DFS Lines To Target: 10/25/19
Happy Friday! What better way to celebrate the weekend than by playing the NHL’s five-game (main) slate? You can find my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!
High-Priced
Washington 1 – @Alex Ovechkin ($8,200), @Nicklas Backstrom ($6,700), @T.J. Oshie ($6,300)
While they are incredibly pricey for a team playing on the tail-end of a back-to-back, Washington 1 does offer a very high floor tonight. Based off Vancouver’s recent line matching trends, Washington 1 should spend the majority of their 5v5 time tonight against the @Bo Horvat line. Horvat is a strong two-way player in his own right, but he won’t have much help on his wings. The Canucks captain will be saddled with @Micheal Ferland and @Jake Virtanen tonight. Virtanen and Horvat struggled as a shutdown duo last season, surrendering over 33 scoring and 14 high-danger chances per 60. It’s an ideal matchup for the Backstrom line, who are currently averaging a remarkable 37 scoring and 18 high-danger chances for per 60.
Washington 1’s shot production in this kind of matchup is incredibly reliable, and it’s what gives them such a high floor tonight. Even with their outrageous price tag, it shouldn’t take more than a single line goal for them to return value. Adding to their upside is of course their power-play usage. All three of them skate on the Caps’ dynamic top unit, but it’s worth noting Vancouver does boast the league’s fourth-best penalty kill at 88.2%.
Mid-Range
Toronto 1 – @Andreas Johnsson ($4,600), @Auston Matthews ($7,700), @William Nylander ($4,600)
You’re going to have to pay up for Matthews tonight, but his reasonably priced wingers make the Toronto 1 full stack more than affordable. The Maple Leafs get the benefit of facing what should be a tired San Jose team, and you can expect their top line to take advantage of that. The Sharks are in the midst of a five-game, East coast road trip and had to travel overnight after playing last night in Montreal. Keeping pace with the Maple Leafs is always a challenge, and it doesn’t get any easier on tired legs.
With @John Tavares sidelined, Toronto 1 & 2 are splitting time against the opposition’s top-six on home ice. Both San Jose 1 & 2 are struggling defensively at 5v5 this season. Toronto 1, on the other hand, is averaging 37 scoring chances for per 60 while surrendering just 20. They routinely dominate play at 5v5 and tonight should be no different. When you consider their power-play usage and San Jose’s abysmal goaltending, it’s easy to get excited about Toronto 1 tonight.
Detroit 2 – @Andreas Athanasiou ($3,800), @Valtteri Filppula ($3,200), @Anthony Mantha ($6,400)
After being buried with sub-par line mates all season, Athanasiou will finally get the benefit of playing with one of Detroit’s top-tier forwards tonight. Jeff Blashill broke up Detroit 1 ahead of tonight’s game, sending Mantha to skate with AA and Filppula on line two. Filppula centering the line is definitely a concern, but Mantha and Athanasiou form a formidable duo at even strength. The two of them averaged 31 scoring and 15 high-danger chances per 60 together last season. On a slate without a lot of strong value plays, I love the Mantha-Athanasiou mini-stack tonight. They project to see a mix of Buffalo’s tired top-nine tonight. The Sabres flew to Detroit overnight after a 6-2 road loss to the Rangers on Thursday.
Their record is strong, but there are a ton of red flags with this Sabres team. They’ve been out shot and out-chanced at 5v5, their struggles being masked by a 1.031 PDO, the third-highest in the league. It’s only a matter of time before the bottom falls out. Detroit 2 should see plenty of offensive zone time tonight, making them a safe bet to return value.