DFS Lines To Target: 11/06/19
It’s a typically slow Wednesday night in the NHL with just two games on the slate. I’ve highlighted my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!
High-Priced
Edmonton 1 – @Leon Draisaitl ($8,000), @Connor McDavid ($7,900), @Sam Gagner ($2,700)
A little bit of line shuffling gives Edmonton’s top line a little bit more value heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Blues. Gagner will jump up to play on the right wing of Draisaitl and McDavid, making him a terrific value play tonight. It should come as no surprise that Conner and Leon are the safest bet on such a small slate. Their sky-high usage and shot production make them one of the most reliable plays in DFS puck, and they get the benefit of facing a tired Blues team tonight. Fatigue will definitely be a factor for St. Louis after their 2-1 overtime victory last night in Vancouver. They are the reigning cup champs, but they are far less intimidating tired and without their star, @Vladimir Tarasenko.
McDavid and Draisaitl should see a mix of the Blues’ top-nine tonight. St. Louis is surrendering 25 scoring and 11 high-danger chances as a team at 5v5 this season, so Edmonton 1 will see plenty of opportunities to score regardless of who they’re up against. Adding to the line’s upside tonight is Edmonton’s third-ranked power-play. They’ve converted on 26.7% of their power-play opportunities, and St. Louis is averaging over three minor penalties a game. Considering the fatigue and @Jake Allen getting the start in net, it’s hard to imagine this power-play being shut out tonight.
Mid-Range
New York 1 – @Artemi Panarin ($7,200), @Ryan Strome ($5,200), @Jesper Fast ($3,400)
It can be hard to find value on a two-game slate, but luckily New York 1 is still a tad bit under-priced. While their defensive numbers leave a lot to be desired, Strome and Panarin are creating offense at a respectable rate. They average 25 scoring and 11 high-danger chances per 60. They’re seeing a ton of minutes with @Mika Zibanejad sidelined and should easily return value tonight. The Rangers haven’t been doing much line matching of late, so expect a mix of Detroit’s top-nine for New York 1 tonight. That means they should see plenty of minutes away from the @Dylan Larkin line. The Red Wings top line is elite, but their depth is routinely exposed in their own end. Strome and Panarin will be a threat to score whenever they’re out against the @Valtteri Filppula and @Frans Nielsen lines.
The potential power-play production for this line is also very exciting tonight. Strome and Panarin are both heavily-featured on the team’s top power-play unit. It’s far from the best power-play in the league, but Detroit ranks dead last in the NHL with a 68.6 PK%. Unfortunately, Fast won’t be joining his line mates on the power-play, but he still adds a lot of value to the full stack.
Value
Edmonton 2 – @James Neal ($5,200), @Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,800), @Zack Kassian ($3,600)
Edmonton 2 really is a poor man’s Edmonton 1 tonight. Neal and Nugent-Hopkins are both also on the top power-play unit, though they’re obviously not as involved as McDavid and Draisaitl. Edmonton 2 will see the same mix of the Blues’ top-nine as the McDavid line, but they won’t see as much ice time. Obviously they don’t offer as much upside as the top line, but their price tag is reflective of that. Neal and Nugent-Hopkins are taking advantage of some cushier matchups at 5v5 this season, with a 54.18 CF% and a 52.99 SCF% to show for it. They should spend a lot of time in St. Louis’ end tonight at 5v5 as well as on the power-play. Kassian is still priced as if he’s on the top line, so feel free to omit him in favour of the mini-stack.