Do They Finish with 50 Goals?
By Alexander Monaghan
Editor-in-chief
A cursory glance at the top of the League’s scorers would yield some surprising names. Phil Kessel, James Neal, Milan Michalek, Tyler Seguin and Thomas Vanek round out the top-5, on pace to score at least 50 goals. A less-surprising moniker of Steven Stamkos too could hit such a plateau for the second time in his career. But the bigger question is will these players hit such a milestone?
It is well documented that scoring has decreased over the past decade. The days of 9-8 games seem long gone unless you play for the Winnipeg Jets or Philadelphia Flyers. Only 15 times has a player topped 50 goals over the post-lockout era of six seasons, which averages out to about two a season. Last year only Corey Perry held such a distinction, which could be a further indication of how hard it is to score on these goalies. Nevertheless, we found some worthy candidates whose prorated totals hit the number 50 or more.
Let’s take a deeper look at their underlying numbers:
Phil Kessel, Toronto Maple Leafs
Kessel is currently on pace to score 58 goals — a career high. His previous career high of 36 markers came during his Junior year in the NHL, his last with the Boston Bruins. His shooting percentage is simply unsustainable with 21.1 percent of his total shots finding the back of the net. Only one player — Sergei Kostitsyn of the Nashville Predators — hit a percentage that high last season. In addition, the amount of goals per 60 minutes with Kessel on the ice has nearly doubled since last season.
While we certainly agree that the Toronto Maple Leafs are incredibly improved, they already fell out of the top-5 in scoring over the last week likely due to three players — Kessel, Clarke MacArthur and Joffrey Lupul — accounting for 55 percent of their scoring. Kessel will regress to the mean but has some wiggle room to still hit 50. The Madison, Wisconsin needs to stay consistent through January and February — the months he historically falls off.
James Neal, Pittsburgh Penguins
Neal has cooled down slightly but is still on pace for 53 goals. A pure goal scorer, the Oshawa, Ontario native is scoring roughly 20 percent higher than his career shooting percentage. The power forward has played excellent hockey thus far with the best believed to come when the captain Sidney Crosby actually returns. He’s currently riding a six-game point streak but has only three notches over that span, meaning his game may be too well-rounded to pot 50.
The Pittsburgh Penguins, like the Leafs above, can fill the net with alarming frequency. Those totals can only spike with a fully healthy Crosby and Tyler Kennedy. At no point is Neal expected to move off of a line that features Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, which is a good indicator he will continue to thrive. However, predicting a player with a previous career high of 27 goals to double his output is a scary bet to make. We think he hits 40 as he won’t be the go-to scorer for too much longer.
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Milan Michalek, Ottawa Senators
Probably the biggest overall surprise in fantasy hockey, Milan Michalek is making the Dany Heatley trade look good. Playing with a rejuvenated Jason Spezza, Michalek is on pace for 50 goals in his comeback season. His shooting percentage, like Neal and Kessel in front of him, is 58 percent higher than his career average. In addition, the surprising Ottawa Senators have scored more goals than the Tampa Bay Lightning, Penguins, San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings. There is simply no way this elite level of production is sustainable for the makeshift Sens.
Perhaps the biggest and most worrisome outlier for Michalek is his health. His career high of 81 games came as a rookie in San Jose. As a Senator he’s played two seasons of 66 games and all 18 this season. It has to be a mirage. Furthermore, the Czech forward has twice posted at least eight goals in a month (his total for October) yet he has never scored more than 26 goals. If he and Spezza can remain healthy than anything is possible but there definitely are question marks.
Tyler Seguin, Boston Bruins
We all knew Seguin would play better than last year but nobody put him on pace to hit 60 goals. The former 2nd overall pick has already tied last year’s goal total with 11 despite playing in 59 less games. His shooting percentage is nearly tripled and he leads the League in plus/minus with an impressive plus-14 rating. There is nothing to say he will continue this torrid pace but there is also nothing that says he won’t continue scoring at this pace. His upside is unknown which makes him one of the most intriguing players in fantasy hockey.
Playing on one of the strongest two-way lines in the league with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, the Brampton native has thrived in his sophomore season. Seguin has the highest goals forced over 60 minutes in the League which is simply incredible when considering he is only 19. Considering how good he has been, ruling out 50 goals seems ill-advised.
Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres
Once again Vanek looks like one of the most lethal options in hockey as the Austrian native is on pace for 60 goals. Playing with rookie Luke Adam, a more physical presence down the middle, has helped create space for the sniper. His 20 percent shooting percentage is a bit high but the former University of Minnesota product did post 18 and 19 percent efficiency rates in his two 40+ goal seasons.
We have no doubt that Vanek is a special goal scorer, one of the better snipers in the League. However, he has yet to hit 50, let alone his projected 60 goals. Furthermore, he has cooled down slightly with only three goals over his last six which would regress his totals closer to the 40-goal range.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
The only skater on this list who actually attained 50 goals in a single season, Stamkos scored 51 two seasons ago and is on pace to do the same this year. Playing primarily without Martin St. Louis at even strength, the Markham, Ontario native has proved himself as an elite force yet again. Perhaps more impressive than his performance is that he’s doing it with a lower shooting percentage than his previous 51-goal season which indicates his production is sustainable.
Can Stammer once again lead the League in goals? His lauded sophomore season yielded 51 which tied Sidney Crosby for the Rocket Richard and topped Alex Ovechkin by a goal. Last season only the streaking Corey Perry would surpass his 45 tallies. If only one of these six snipers make it, my money would be on Steven. Makes you wonder how safe he would be with the first overall pick in next year’s draft.
As usual, we leave the reader with a vote. Be sure to select as many skaters as you feel will score 50 and make yourself heard in the comments!
We hope you enjoyed our latest as much as we enjoyed writing it. If there are glaring omissions let your voice be heard in the comments. Regardless, make sure to take all of the advice in and continue to check our renowned starting goalies section, which is updated all day until game time and follow us on Twitter @DailyFaceoff
