Each Atlantic Division team’s top breakthrough candidate for the second half of the 2022–23 season

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
Each Atlantic Division team’s top breakthrough candidate for the second half of the 2022–23 season
Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

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It’s finally time for the end of our “Breakthrough Candidates” series here at Daily Faceoff, which means we’ve completed our journey from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

Here are the first, second, and third parts of the series (respectively representing the Pacific, Central, and Metropolitan Divisions). But with three Canadian teams and four Original Six teams still left to cover, we might’ve saved the best part for last.

Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Montreal … it doesn’t get any better than this! Let’s get it all started with the high-flying Bruins, coming off only their first regulation home loss of the season on Thursday.

All figures in this article are sourced from Natural Stat Trick, except when otherwise stated.

Boston Bruins: Jeremy Swayman — On a team where pretty much everyone is performing up to expectations, Swayman sticks out like a bit of a sore thumb. The 24-year-old goaltender is stuck at a .905 save percentage (33 points lower than starter Linus Ullmark) through 16 games, with that figure negatively impacted by a pair of putrid outings against the Arizona Coyotes, of all teams. Swayman has been much sharper of late and has helped guide the Bruins to at least one point in his last six outings. Ullmark probably isn’t a .938 guy forever, but, on the other end, Swayman is better than his current mark.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo — The first-year Sabres captain is way off the goal-scoring pace he established last season (when he finished with 21 in 74 games). Okposo has just six goals this year, with half of them coming in one game against the Detroit Red Wings back in December. Sure, Okposo is almost certainly in the midst of a period of age-related decline — he’ll turn 35 in April — but he’s better than this. The Sabres have fared just fine in terms of shots and expected goals during Okposo’s shifts and he’s shooting just 3.64 percent at 5-on-5.

Detroit Red Wings: Moritz Seider — You could say Seider’s second-half breakout has already begun. The big German racked up four assists against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday and followed it up two nights later with a crowd-pleasing goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s been difficult at times for Seider to adjust to playing with Ben Chiarot, one of the many new faces on this Red Wings team, but he’s found more success of late alongside promising 2022 trade deadline acquisition Jake Walman. Besides, 18 points in 40 games is a respectable scoring pace for a young defenseman in the first place.

Florida Panthers: Sam Bennett — Even going back to his Calgary days, Bennett has really struggled at times to finish on a consistent basis. This year has been no exception: Bennett has just four goals at 5-on-5 despite amassing 8.85 individual expected goals, third on the Panthers behind Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. While he’s never reached the 50-point plateau in his NHL career to date, Bennett is shooting the puck at a clip indicating he could be primed to take off and surpass that watermark down the stretch.

Montreal Canadiens: Evgenii Dadonov — The Canadiens are on a collision course with the draft lottery. Nobody on that team is scoring all that much. But, of all the underperformers on this year’s Habs, Dadonov sticks out. Despite posting some of the strongest on-ice possession numbers on the Canadiens, Dadonov has just two goals and has been shooting just 5.26 percent at 5-on-5 through his first 33 games with the team. While, at 33, Dadonov might be older than you think, he’s still coming off a 20-goal season with the Vegas Golden Knights and is due to get a few bounces before too long.

Ottawa Senators: Jake Sanderson — Looking the part of a top-four defenseman at age 20 is no simple task. And while Sanderson already has 16 points through his first 41 NHL games with the Senators, he should probably be scoring even more. The Senators have dominated their opposition during Sanderson’s shifts at 5-on-5, controlling 51.99 percent of the shots and 52.57 percent of the expected goals — but they’ve been outscored 27–23 over that period of time. The culprit: low individual (2.00) and on-ice (6.52) shooting percentages. But check out this beautiful pass he made to set up a goal for Arizona product Mark Kastelic against the Coyotes on Thursday:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Vladislav Namestnikov — This could’ve just as easily been Pat Maroon, whose statistical profile actually closely resembles that of Namestnikov this season: strong possession numbers, lots of individual expected goals, low shooting percentage. Namestnikov has been a quality utility player on good and bad teams over much of the last half-decade, splitting the 2021–22 campaign between the Detroit Red Wings and Dallas Stars and ultimately scoring 16 goals. This year, he has just three through 38 games. He might as well have a neon sign reading “unsustainable slump” hanging around his neck.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin — The Maple Leafs badly need somebody to step up on defense in the wake of injuries to T.J. Brodie and Jake Muzzin, not to mention Morgan Rielly’s struggles at 5-on-5. Sandin might just be that guy. Toronto has fared exceptionally well at both ends of the ice with Sandin in action. He’ll turn 23 in March and has been following an upward trajectory for multiple seasons. Toronto’s power play isn’t structured in a way that enables Sandin to take many shots but he’s due to pick up assists as long as he plays with the likes of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner — especially if he can usurp Rielly as a regular on the top PP unit.

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