Which early-season NHL overreactions do we believe in most?
A few days from now, we’ll reach the three-week mark of the 2026-27 NHL season, and every franchise will have played at least half a dozen games, give or take.
Let’s assess what we’ve seen so far. Roundtable members: What’s an early-season overreaction you truly believe in?
MATT LARKIN: I apologize to any superstitious Toronto Maple Leafs fans for the jinx, but: Auston Matthews is back. Due to the injury problems he dealt with the past couple seasons, I was pretty skeptical we’d ever see Peak Matthews again. But he looks reborn so far this season. His shot is back to being deadly, climbing from the 73rd percentile back to the 94th percentile in max power. He’s doing a great job facilitating his teammates. The underlying 5-on-5 data suggests he’s getting fewer individual chances, but his playmaking metrics are through the roof. It appears he can still be a franchise center when his body co-operates, which it has so far.
PAUL PIDUTTI: Yes, it’s extremely early, and yes, the Edmonton Oilers have had a soft opening schedule. But Evan Bouchard is going to win the Norris Trophy. I’m a longtime Bouchard truther, ranking him the #2 defenseman in the NHL in my annual High Noon rankings last month. His defensive game has steadily improved the last four seasons to the point he defends above league average. Bouchard’s one of those lightning-rod players for whom every mistake gets unfairly magnified while his all-world contributions are often minimized. Not anymore. With 28 Pacific Division games against some ghastly defensive outfits this year, Bouchard should add to last year’s 95-point season and play well enough defensively to finally win over his critics.
ANTHONY TRUDEAU: Given their history of bad luck in goal, Ottawans might want to read this one through their fingers: Linus Ullmark will finish in the top three of Vezina Trophy voting. The results of Ullmark’s highly detailed positional game have always closely followed his mental focus, and a tempestuous second season in the Canadian capital left the Ottawa Senators‘ shot-stopper with all the motivation he could possibly need to prove he’s still an elite option in goal. Ullmark sure looks dialed in, having posted a perfect 5-0 start and preposterous counting stats (1.27 GAA, .948 SV%) behind an injury-hit Ottawa defense. Ullmark is a name brand whose value to his team (backup Sam Ersson gave up a touchdown on Tuesday) and redemption narrative should help keep him top of mind for voters. The veteran Swede’s strong start shouldn’t be unsustainable, either; the Senators are among the stingiest teams in hockey when their top pair defenders Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, both of whom are working their way back from injury, are healthy. I’m buying stock in the 2022-23 Vezina winner’s return to glory while the price is good.
STEVEN ELLIS: New York Rangers goaltender Dylan Garand is legit. It’s a small sample size, but this is a goalie who came with some high pedigree from his junior days. He was an integral part of Canada’s World Junior gold in 2022, a tournament most people didn’t pay attention to. Since then, he has been a solid AHL goaltender who just needed the right opportunity to crack into the NHL. He finally got that this year, and he’s off to an excellent start. He’s not a big goalie, but he’s athletically gifted with great hands and excellent footwork. It felt like it was only a matter of time until he was able to force his way into a full-time NHL role, and it feels like he could be the long-term backup option once Igor Shesterkin is back to full health next season.
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SCOTT MAXWELL: Entering this season, conversations about the best team in the loaded Central Division usually centered on the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars or Minnesota Wild. The Utah Mammoth were maybe a dark horse candidate for some, but few seriously entertained the idea of Utah truly being the best. But I’m here to say that the Utah Mammoth are the best team in the Central Division, just as the standings have shown for the first few weeks of the season. Their underlying numbers have been excellent for their entire time in Utah, with a 53.46% 5v5 expected goal share since 2024 (fifth in the league). They have also taken gradual steps over that span, including their first playoff appearance last season, where they gave the Western Conference Champion Vegas Golden Knights their toughest test before the Stanley Cup Final. Now this season, they’re off to a 6-2-0 start, giving them the best record in the Central, and the underlying numbers confirm this with a 65.05% 5v5 xGF%. Sure, that percentage will likely decrease, but their youth, depth and prospect pool (the latter which they can either integrate into the team or trade for better players) make them a significant threat to the other Central titans, who are older and slightly lacking in depth.
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