Expansion Draft Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs breezed through the Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft back in 2017.

All of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander were on their entry-level deals and didn’t need to be protected. They wound up losing an NHL tweener in Brendan Leipsic who only played 44 games for the Golden Knights.

This time around, things won’t be quite so easy for the Leafs. Their protection scheme ultimately boils down to exposing a quality forward in Alex Kerfoot or a pair of young defenders in Travis Dermott and Justin Holl.

Eligible Forwards

@John Tavares (NMC), @Auston Matthews @Mitch Marner, @William Nylander, @Alex Kerfoot, @Wayne Simmonds, @Pierre Engvall, @Jason Spezza, @Joey Anderson, @Adam Brooks, @Denis Malgin, @Zach Hyman (UFA), @Nick Foligno (UFA), @Alex Galchenyuk (UFA)

Eligible Defenders

@Jake Muzzin, @Morgan Rielly, @TJ Brodie, @Justin Holl, @Travis Dermott, @Zach Bogosian (UFA), @Bun Hutton (UFA), @Calle Rosen (UFA)

Eligible Goaltenders

@Jack Campbell, @Michael Hutchinson, @David Rittich (UFA), @Frederik Andersen (UFA)

Exempt Players

Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Robertson, Mikhail Abramov, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Rodion Amirov, Filip Hallander, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Mac Hollowell, Joseph Woll, Ian Scott

What should they do?

The Leafs have seven no-brainers to protect from Seattle. John Tavares, who has a no-movement clause, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander up front, and Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and TJ Brodie on the blueline. That ultimately leaves them with a key decision: protect Alex Kerfoot or one of Justin Holl and Travis Dermott.

If the Leafs opt to use the 7-3-1 scheme, they could protect Kerfoot along with those four aforementioned forwards. They could also protect a couple of depth names, such as Joey Anderson and Pierre Engvall. Using the eight-skater method, Toronto would be able to pick one of Dermott or Holl but would leave Kerfoot open to be selected by Seattle.

At this point, Holl is probably the most valuable of the three. He took a step forward in 2021 as a legitimate top-four option, logging 21:04 per game with a 58-to-44 on-ice goal differential at even-strength. Dermott, on the other hand, logged just 13:13 per night and hasn’t been able to take on a role beyond the third pairing.

Kerfoot is a fine middle-six forward. He scored eight goals and 23 points in 56 games but was one of Toronto’s better forwards in the playoffs. Losing him wouldn’t be ideal, but it would open up $3,500,000 in cap room annually over the next two seasons for Kyle Dubas to tinker with the team’s roster.