Finding Value in Early ADPs

Fantasy Hockey drafts have already started on Yahoo! which means Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are already starting to take shape.

As we get closer to the start of the season (January 13th) the ADPs will continue to change but more often than not, the early ADPs hold pretty true. I took a look at all of the ADPs from @Nikita Kucherov (ADP: 1.7) to @Mikko Lehtonen (ADP: 187.2) to find who is going too late so far. I cross-referenced their ADPs with the DFO Top 300 to find the biggest differences between where I have them ranked and where they are currently being taken. This will be my first of a couple of ADP Analysis write-ups between now and the start of the 2021 NHL season.

@Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ – LW/RW)

ADP: 173.7 | DFO: 95 | Difference: 78.7

I imagine Bjorkstrand’s value is low because he missed 21 games last season but the reality is he was one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL when he was healthy. Bjorkstrand was sixth in the NHL in 5v5 GoalsFor/60 last year, a list that was dominated by the “who’s who” of elite goal-scorers.

I think if people knew that, he wouldn’t be going in the 15th/16th round. Bjorkstrand finished the 2020 season with 21 goals and 15 assists (36 points) in 49 games, but he had some stretches where he was one of the hottest players in the league. He was a point-per-game player for almost the entire month of November, compiling 13 points (4G / 9A) in 13 games from Nov.1 to Nov.29. After cooling off briefly, he then went on a 17 game stretch from Dec.16 to Feb.20 where he was 15th in the NHL in points-per-game (1.18) with 20 points (14G /6A) in 17 games before getting injured.

Coming into 2021, he should be a fixture on the top-line with @Pierre-Luc Dubois and both should be in for big seasons. In just over 275 5v5 TOI together last year, Dubois-Bjorkstrand had a 52.8 CorsiFor%, 62.1 GoalsFor% and 57.7 ScoringChancesFor%. They’ve quietly asserted themselves as one of the better offensive duos in the NHL, yet fantasy owners are letting Bjorkstrand drop six or seven rounds later than Dubois.

@Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW/RW)

ADP: 161.8 | DFO: 97 | Difference: 64.7

Ehlers is another player that I have been high on for years and even more so this season with an ADP in the 14th round. Ehlers has not missed a game in three out of the last four seasons and has averaged 27.6 goals per 82 games over that stretch. He has quietly scored 20-plus goals in four straight seasons but is overshadowed by @Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine’s 30-plus goal seasons. Ehlers has also picked up 30-plus assists in three of those four years, so he has true 30-30 (pace) upside in 2021, which is something that is next to impossible to find in the final few rounds of the draft.

Following his two-year stint in Vegas, @Paul Stastny is back in Winnipeg and that should provide a big boost for both Ehlers and Laine. That trio played together exclusively during Stastny’s post-trade deadline stint with the Jets in 2018. In 19 games, they averaged an absurd 4.54 GF/60, which was second-best in the entire NHL among lines who played at least 200 5v5 TOI together. Stastny will be 35 when the season starts and may no longer be the player he was in his first go-around with Winnipeg but he is still a big upgrade over what Ehlers and Laine have been playing with since.

Dylan Larkin (DET – C)

ADP: 142.3 | DFO: 79 | Difference: 63.3

Larkin enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2019 but followed it up with a clunker in 2020. Larkin scored just 19 goals with 34 assists in 71 games but there’s still a lot of room for optimism coming into 2021. Firstly, the team around him can’t be much worse. Secondly, his shot volume remained extremely strong (on-pace for 258 shots) and a bounce-back in shooting percentage should put him back on a 25-to-30 goal pace in 2021.

Detroit’s first line will still most likely be Larkin with @Anthony Mantha and @Tyler Bertuzzi and that’s good news for all three of them. Despite playing on one of the worst teams in NHL history, DET1 was shockingly good. They ranked sixth in the NHL in GoalsFor/60, ahead of some of the most highly touted lines in hockey.

The offence didn’t come at the expense of their defence either, as they ranked 12th in GoalsFor% (57.1). This line should continue to find success in 2021 and some new pieces should help their 29th ranked power-play, making Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi all solid fantasy contributors.

Viktor Arvidsson (NSH – LW/RW)

ADP: 159.1 | DFO: 98 | Difference: 60.5

Arvidsson is in almost the exact same boat as Larkin, he is two years removed from a career-high 34 goals but disappointed in 2020. Injuries have become an issue for Arvidsson in the last few seasons but prior to that, he was a reliable 30-30 option in the middle rounds. This year, he’s going towards the end of the 13th, which represents tremendous value, especially given how good Nashville’s top-line was in the qualifying round.

The trio of Arvidsson, @Filip Forsberg and @Ryan Johansen didn’t get as much run together in 2020 as they have in year’s past. Some of that can be blamed on injuries but some of it was ineffectiveness. However, when they were reunited for the NHL’s return to play, they absolutely steamrolled the Coyotes at 5v5 while the rest of the lineup was stifled. They carried a 74.2 CF% while averaging 5.68 GF/60 and generating 45.5 SCF/60. Admittedly it’s a small sample size against one team, but it showcases that they could return to the 2019 form that saw them ranked fourth in the NHL in GF% (58.6) among lines who played at least 400 5v5 TOI together. If John Hynes goes back to them to start 2021, Arvidsson is the type of player who could get off to the important hot-start and immediately pay off his draft stock.

Tyson Barrie (EDM – D)

ADP: 84.5 | DFO: 50 | Difference: 34.5

Barrie sticks out as the defenseman that is going too late and it’s not going to be difficult for me to make a case for him. He is coming off of an undoubtedly disappointing season with the Maple Leafs but couldn’t have landed in a better spot than Edmonton. @Oscar Klefbom is out for the season with a shoulder issue, so Barrie is the unquestioned No.1 blueline option for the NHL’s best power-play from a season ago.

In Toronto, he played the least PP TOI/GM (2:40) he’s played since his first two seasons in the NHL. Last year, Klefbom averaged 3:38 PP TOI/GM, so Barrie should immediately return to the massive power-play usage he was used to seeing in Colorado.

In his final two seasons with the Avalanche, he was sixth among defensemen in points (116) and tied for third in power-play points (55). He was an elite fantasy defenseman and now he’s the No.18 defenseman off of the board because of one bad season.

Edmonton led the NHL in PP goals (59) and PP% (29.5) last year, so just sharing the ice with @Connor McDavid and @Leon Draisaitl is going to lead to production for Barrie. He should 100 percent be one of the first 10 defensemen drafted and has a chance to be one of the biggest bounce-back candidates and finish as a top-5 fantasy blueliner.

Ben Bishop (DAL – G)

ADP: 119.4 | DFO: 99 | Difference: 20.4

The goalie ADPs look reasonable for the most part. However, Bishop sticks out as the biggest bargain right now. A lot of that has to do with recency bias, with more people high on @Anton Khudobin (ADP: 86.9). Bishop was hurt throughout the Stars run to the Finals and Khudobin played great but I wouldn’t be writing Bishop off just yet. This will likely be one of the tighter timeshares in the NHL in an attempt to keep Bishop healthy, but I would still expect him to see roughly 55 percent of the starts. If that ends up being the case, it’s wild to think that Khudobin is going ahead of him right now.

A 55/45 split will probably be pretty common in the condensed season, so it’s not like Bishop is the only one in a timeshare. It’s easy to forget he led the NHL in SV% .934 in 2019 and still posted a .920 a season ago. Dallas is one of the stoutest defensive teams in the NHL with a superb blueline, so Bishop remains in the No.1 fantasy netminder conversation for me. Even if Khudobin carves out a solid role, Bishop is too good a goalie to have sitting on the bench.

He’s currently being drafted as the No.17 goalie and could easily finish among the top-10 by season’s end.

Honourable Mentions:

Anthony Mantha (DET – LW/RW) – ADP: 154.6 | DFO – 93 | Difference: 61.6
Sean Monahan (CGY – C) – ADP: 149.7 | DFO – 92 | Difference: 57.7
Evgenii Dadonov (OTT – LW/RW) – ADP: 169.1 | DFO – 125 | Difference: 44.1
Viktor Olofsson (BUF – LW/RW) – ADP: 110.7 | DFO – 74 | Difference: 36.7
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN – LW) – ADP: 128.0 | DFO: 94 | Difference: 34.0
P.K. Subban (NJD – D) – ADP: 166.3 | DFO: 139 | Difference: 27.3
Thomas Chabot (OTT – D) ADP: 108.9 | DFO: 82 | Difference: 26.9
Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ – G) ADP: 119.4 | DFO: 99 | Difference: 20.4