Grading the Vladimir Tarasenko trade: New York Rangers get a lot for a little

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Grading the Vladimir Tarasenko trade: New York Rangers get a lot for a little
Credit: © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

_____

Another week, another major Trade Deadline chip changing teams, all within mere miles of each other.

The New York York Islanders nabbed Bo Horvat last week. On Thursday, it was the New York Rangers’ turn. They acquired right winger Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Niko Mikkola from the St. Louis Blues for a conditional 2023 first-round pick, a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick, prospect defenseman Hunter Skinner and left winger Sammy Blais. The news was broken Daily Faceoff’s own Frank Seravalli.

So did the Rangers, prepping for a legitimate push at a Stanley Cup, land the right pieces? And was the price right? Did the Blues get a strong enough yield for two expiring assets?

Time for another way-too-early Trade Grade.

NEW YORK RANGERS

Receive:

RW Vladimir Tarasenko, 31 – $3.75 million cap hit (Blues retain 50% of $7.5 million cap hit), 2023 UFA
D Niko Mikkola, 26 – $1.9 million cap hit, 2023 UFA

The Rangers’ identity last season was that of a high-event hockey team that relied on goaltender Igor Shesterkin to bail out any defensive miscues. The Blueshirts, sporting an enviable superstar core including Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider up front and Adam Fox on defense, had the NHL’s fourth-best power play but were a below-average team at 5-on-5.

This season? Their identity has inverted. They’ve improved across the board as a 5-on-5 team and generally rate around the top 10 in most defensive categories, while their power play has slid to 17th in the NHL. After letting 2022 Trade Deadline rentals Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano walk as free agents, they’ve struggled for continuity at right wing on their top three lines, auditioning a revolving door of forwards to play alongside Kreider, Zibanejad, Panarin and Vincent Trocheck – from Kaapo Kakko to Alexis Lafreniere to Blais to Vitali Kravtsov to Barclay Goodrow to Jimmy Vesey.

So from a pure hockey standpoint, Tarasenko makes plenty of sense as an add. He’s been slowed by a hand injury recently, but the Rangers would have done their diligence on that before pulling the trigger. He’s scoring on only 9.7 percent of his shots this season, so he’s a candidate for positive regression toward his career mark of 12.7. He’s just a year removed from burying 34 goals and a career-high 82 points and has shown no signs of new complications from the three surgeries on one shoulder that cost him much of 2019-20 and 2020-21. He’ll help the power play but will also be an asset 5-on-5, where he ranks 11th in the league in goals per 60 since the start of last season. It’s only natural to assume he’ll get a look alongside countryman Panarin. Coach Gerard Gallant will have the option to ice a nuclear-grade line with Zibanejad between them, though it’s more likely he keeps Zibanejad with Kreider. Tarasenko’s presence also allows Gallant to keep the Kid Line of Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kakko together when they are really starting to cook.

Mikkola is a meat-and-potatoes defender with a left shot who can slot onto the Blueshirts’ third pair alongside Braden Schneider. Mikkola plays a simple, physical game, sacrifices his body and can function as a second-unit penalty killer. As Seravalli put it in this profile on Mikkola: you can never have too many defensemen if you’re a playoff team.

The Rangers always had the elite-level talent to be a top Cup contender, having already been to the Eastern Conference Final last season, but now they’re a lot deeper, too, and have another game-breaking scorer in Tarasenko, who had 11 goals during the Blues’ Stanley Cup run in 2018-19.

The only thing holding back the Rangers’ trade grade is that there were higher-ceiling options out there. Timo Meier or Patrick Kane would’ve been exciting fits. They would’ve cost more, yes, but the Rangers had the assets to pull off almost any deal. That said, ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reported during the trade’s aftermath that the Rangers hesitated on the asking price for Meier and had health questions with Kane. Tarasenko is a perfectly strong addition, and the Mikkola throw-in was a nice touch for GM Chris Drury.

Grade: A-

ST. LOUIS BLUES

Receive:

Conditional 2023 1st round pick (lower of Rangers’ two 1st round picks)
Conditional 2024 4th round pick (becomes a 3rd round pick if Rangers make playoffs)
D Hunter Skinner, 21, $850,883 cap hit through 2023-24
LW Sammy Blais, 26 – $1.525 million cap hit, 2023 UFA

Before anyone tries to compare the Blues’ return to what Vancouver got for Horvat: apples to oranges. Horvat is 27 and the Islanders were keen all along on signing him to an extension. Tarasenko is 31, has a pretty significant injury history and should be perceived as more of a rental. It doesn’t mean an extension is out of the question, but it wasn’t a condition of the trade.

Viewed through that lens: the Blues sold off their star goal-scorer on an expiring deal for what will be a lower first-round pick. Between the Rangers’ original first-rounder and the top-10 protected one they owned from the Dallas Stars, the Blues will get whichever selection ends up lower. And that could mean quite low given the Rangers and Stars are viable Cup contenders.

Skinner, chosen 119th overall by the Rangers in the 2019 Draft, did not rate anywhere close to their upper-crust prospects. He has split this season between AHL Hartford and ECHL Jacksonville. He brings NHL-grade size at 6-foot-3 and 202 pounds. He’s strong and physical with a heavy shot, but he does not project to be a particularly mobile defenseman – nor is he a lock to even become an NHLer. He’s a project.

Blais, joining the Blues for his second go-round, is a pending UFA whose heavy-hitting brand of play endeared him to the Blues when they originally scouted him for the 2014 Draft, where they chose him in the sixth round. He had 70 hits in 15 playoff games during the Blues’ 2019 Cup run. In 54 games spread across two seasons with the Rangers, he had no goals and a torn ACL. Maybe he finds a home with the team that first discovered him. If not, he could also be a flippable asset before March 3 if another contender needs a fourth-line banger.

The player element to the trade is underwhelming from the Blues’ perspective. But keep in mind they lacked leverage with Tarasenko, who had requested a trade out of St. Louis two years ago and never rescinded the request. They still turned him into a first-rounder, albeit a low one. I wouldn’t do cartwheels in the streets if I was a Blues fan, but I wouldn’t call this deal disastrous. That said, when we factor in that Mikkola was also cashed out in the deal, the return feels mildly disappointing.

Grade: C+

_____

Recently by Matt Larkin

Keep scrolling for more content!