Greeley: Hard to not admire Carolina Hurricanes’ risk tolerance

Steve Greeley
Steve Greeley
Greeley: Hard to not admire Carolina Hurricanes’ risk tolerance

If there’s one thing you can say about the Carolina Hurricanes, who will cruise past the all-important American Thanksgiving pole in first place in the NHL, it’s that the Bunch of Jerks have no fear.

Carolina took the saying, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ and threw it out the window last summer.

Despite finishing in third in the overall regular season standings in last year’s COVID-shortened campaign – and being in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy until the last weekend – the Hurricanes changed out more than a quarter of their roster.

In a league that at times is risk averse, they rolled the dice by making significant changes to a group that seemed to be heading in the right direction.

One can say: so far, so good for Tom Dundon, Don Waddell and the Hurricanes. They have been aggressive and willing to use all avenues available to acquire talent. They added players via trade, free agent signings, and the oft-discussed by rarely used RFA offer sheet, in addition to quality draft selections to build out their roster.

The early returns are promising. Carolina is off to a scorching start this season. Heading into Wednesday night’s action, the Hurricanes (14-2-1) boast a league-best .853 points percentage and 13 of their 14 wins have been in regulation.

From the sideline, you have to admire their willingness to make changes and not be content with past results in their ultimate quest for a Stanley Cup.

Let’s take a deeper dive into how the Hurricanes were built:

Draft Success

One key to the Hurricanes’ recent success is that they have been able to add young offensive talent each season with their 2017, 2019 and now 2020 first-round selections. Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis will all be significant scoring threats for years to come. Acquiring offensive production anywhere but the draft often requires an overpayment in free agency and that is one hurdle the Canes have been able to avoid.

While Seth Jarvis has only hit the 10-game mark for his NHL career, he is producing and playing the game that the Hurricanes believed he would when they used the 13th pick in the 2020 NHL Draft to select him. Jarvis was projected to be the 2020 Draft’s version of Brayden Point and he’s making an NHL impact one season earlier than Point was able to in Tampa Bay. It’s been especially impressive that Jarvis has been able to not just crack a deep lineup at age 19, but to find a home on the first line in the early going.

Hitting on your first-round pick is absolutely crucial to the future of a franchise and Carolina has done a tremendous job in this area:

Andrei Svechnikov (2nd overall, 2019 Draft): 17 games: 7 goals, 12 assists

Martin Necas (12th overall, 2018 Draft): 15 games: 4 goals, 6 assists

Seth Jarvis (13th overall, 2020 Draft): 10 games: 4 goals, 2 assists

The 2021 offseason moves that caught our attention:

Walking away from Norris Trophy candidate Dougie Hamilton

Wholesale goalie tandem swap in Mrazek and Nedeljkovic

Offer Sheet poaching with Jesperi Kotkaniemi

How have they panned out?

⬅️ Dougie Hamilton (AAV $9.0 million) 13 games: 5 goals + 5 assists = 10 points (.77 ppg)

➡️ Tony DeAngelo (AAV $1.0 million) 17 games: 4 goals + 12 assists = 16 points (.94 ppg)

Analysis: Allowing an All-Star defenseman in Hamilton walk and get nothing in return would typically put a checkmark in the loss column for a team. However, from an offensive standpoint, DeAngelo has absolutely filled the shoes of Hamilton in his first 17 games. The Hurricanes quickly addressed any questions around the socially-unpopular DeAngelo signing by saying they had done their homework and were very comfortable with DeAngelo and how he would fit in their group. It was just less than a year ago that the New York Rangers put DeAngelo on waivers and exiled him from their team. DeAngelo reportedly had multiple teams talking with him this summer, but picked wisely in Carolina. It has been a great fit for both parties.

Goaltender Swap:

⬅️ Petr Mrazek, Alex Nedeljkovic out

➡️ Freddie Andersen, Antti Raanta in

Analysis: It was surprising to see the Hurricanes not come to terms with Nedeljkovic, who was seemingly a goaltender of the future for Carolina. They ended up trading him to Detroit for a third-round pick, where he has since grabbed the starter’s role there after leading the league in save percentage last season. Truthfully, both Mrazek and Nedeljkovic had solid seasons for the Hurricanes. But Carolina saw opportunity to improve in this position and that is exactly what it has done. Andersen has been one of the best goalies in the league and with the Hurricanes playing stingy defense in front of him, it is hard to envision any major regression to his game.

Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

Analysis: By far the most controversial move of the offseason was signing Montreal’s Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a one-year, $6.1 million offer sheet. The Canadiens were not willing to go much more than $2.1 million for Kotkaniemi on a new deal out of his entry-level contract. The 2018 No. 3 overall pick has had both ups and downs to start his NHL career. The Hurricanes knew that paying Kotkaniemi this much for this season was an overpay, but it was the only poison pill available to acquire the player, after attempting to trade for him. They more or less saw the dollars spent for this season as an allocation of space that they otherwise might not be using. While Kotkaniemi is off to a slow start offensively, you have to respect Carolina’s willingness to try and improve its team by using draft capital that is nameless and faceless at this point.

Kotkaniemi has shown plenty of promise as a young pro and has the ability to play center, but everyone is still waiting for him to explode. The beauty of the forward depth in Carolina, aside from surrounding him with other Finns, is that there is no pressure for Kotkaniemi to live up to the hype of where Montreal drafted him. Carolina is winning games and has the luxury of working with Kotkaniemi as a center with Derek Stepan on his wing. Kotkaniemi is another forward with massive potential for Carolina in the under-23 aged group – and if he takes the step that Carolina believes he will, then this will be a great move. Otherwise, next season’s contract negotiation will be simple and should include some buy-in from Kotkaniemi to stay in Carolina (even without a qualifying offer), based on the belief the Hurricanes showed in him.

Carolina’s long-term salary cap picture:

The Hurricanes took care of one huge piece of business this summer in locking up Andrei Svechnikov on a team friendly, eight-year deal with an AAV of $7.75 million. That there was no difficulty with signing Svechnikov is a sure sign that players love playing in Carolina and for coach Rod Brind’Amour.  

Martin Necas is a due a huge raise this offseason coming off his entry-level contract and teams will undoubtedly be watching his development closely. Would Necas be an offer sheet candidate? It might make sense for the Hurricanes to lock him up prior to that possibility.

No different than any team in the league, the Hurricanes will have big decisions to make on some key players two or three years from now – but that should not be of much concern. They have Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce under contract for two incredibly cap friendly contracts on their back end. Both Andersen and Raanta are re-signed for another year at a very manageable total for $6.5 million on goaltending.

The biggest piece of business will be getting Sebastian Aho to stay in Carolina long-term. After signing the offer sheet with Montreal, which was then matched by Carolina, Aho put himself in a position to be a UFA in six years rather than eight. Aho’s contract expires after two more seasons, and with the success the Hurricanes have achieved, they will undoubtedly be in a strong position to keep their core together.

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