Is great goaltending necessary to win the Stanley Cup?

May 7, 2025, 09:00 EDT

Credit: May 2, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) lets in a goal during the second period in game six of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the St. Louis Blues at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Connor Hamilton-Imagn Images

Goaltending wins championships. We’ve all heard this widely accepted hockey rule before.

But is it actually true?

After watching Connor Hellebuyck fumble through a thrilling first-round series win, questions naturally emerge. Now, four shaky playoff wins don’t deliver a franchise the Stanley Cup. If the Winnipeg Jets get an .830 save percentage from their MVP candidate again in Round 2, the Winnipeg White Out faithful can head straight to the golf course. But advancing in the postseason offers a blank slate. A new opponent. A rest.

An electric first round has delivered must-watch second-round matchups. Between Hellebuyck’s form, Anthony Stolarz’s controversial injury, Frederik Andersen’s latest resurrection, and Edmonton‘s dysfunctional crease, playoff goaltending is under the microscope. So, we’re taking on a famous hockey narrative: Is great goaltending necessary to win the Stanley Cup?

🥅 Modern Playoff History

When we reflect on Stanley Cup-winning goaltending performances, we remember the most dynamic. A big save. A big series. An unbeatable force. Depending on your age, maybe that’s Ken Dryden’s scorching debut (1971). Or Bill Ranford protecting the Oilers’ dynasty (1990). Or Patrick Roy’s fourth and final ring (2001). Or Andrei Vasilevskiy leading Tampa to consecutive salary cap era titles (2020, 2021).

But in the last few decades with a greater focus on tandems and amidst frequent player movement, Cup-winning goalies are often proving less memorable. Who was in net for that first Cup in Chicago‘s mini-dynasty again? Did Marc-Andre Fleury or Matt Murray star in those Penguins title runs? I swear Pavel Francouz played meaningful games for Colorado in 2022?

But no matter the names in the winning crease, did they provide elite goaltending?

We’ll use data to assess the play of recent Cup winners. Using MoneyPuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) — with NHL-average adjusted to zero — we can plot every playoff goaltender’s performance from the last 16 years. GSAx measures how many goals a goalie saved (or allowed) relative to league-average based on shot volume and quality faced.

This puts all goalies on a level playing field regardless of the team in front of them. A positive GSAx is above-average play, while a negative GSAx is below average.

Each blue dot below is a playoff goaltender. The Cup-winning goalie that year is highlighted in red.

The results are fascinating.

Look at how many Cup winners are close to the dotted line representing league average. While we see several top-tier performances, we also see many statistically mediocre showings. And a couple of absolute stinkers. Reminder: these are the goalies that emerged from a 16-team playoff gauntlet to raise the Cup.

We also have to keep in mind that a Cup-winning goalie will be among the playoff leaders in minutes played. So, they have an inherent advantage to accumulate more GSAx than a netminder that plays well for a round or two on an overmatched team exiting the playoffs early.

🥅 Stanley Cup Finalists

We can see from the chart above that not all Cup-winning goalie runs are equally worthy. But let’s take a closer look at those who reached the Stanley Cup Final since 2009. What kind of goaltending did the league’s top two postseason teams receive on their signature runs?

As a general guide, we’ll use the following goaltending grading scheme:

A: +10 or more GSAx
B: +4 to +9 GSAx
C: -3 to +3 GSAx
D: -6 to -4 GSAx
F: -7 or fewer GSAx

Note: the higher GSAx of the two finalists has a box around their total above.

What are our key takeaways?

#1. The Cup-winning goaltender averages +4.8 GSAx: On our grading scale, this gets a B-minus. Steady but unspectacular over two months of action. Our Cup winners save — on average — about five goals more than an average NHL goaltender with the same postseason workload. Much like yourself, I was expecting more. Remarkably, the Cup-losing goaltenders were slightly better on average (+5.7 GSAx).

#2. Just two different goaltenders earn an A-grade for their Cup-winning work: It’s a technicality as four individual performances earn some form of an A. But Andrei Vasilevskiy (A+ in 2021, A in 2020) and Jonathan Quick (A- in both 2014 and 2012) pulled off the feat twice each. Tim Thomas (+9 GSAx) and Braden Holtby (+8) both played at a high level in their respective wins too, albeit short of an A statistically.

#3. The goaltender that had a better postseason lost 11 of 16 Finals: This was perhaps most shocking. Just 31% of Cup-winning goalies outperformed the goalie in the opposing crease. Sergei Bobrovsky (2023), Vasilevskiy (2022), Tuukka Rask (2019 and 2013), Fleury (2018), Henrik Lundqvist (2014) and Chris Osgood (2009) saved at least +9 GSAx and their teams still fell short — despite outperforming the Cup-winning goalie over the duration of the playoffs. It reinforces that teams win Cups, not goaltenders.

#4. Of the 16 Cup winners, half ranged from a C-grade to an F: A lot of ordinary goaltending performances have led to Cup rings in the last two decades. Incredibly, six of the eight instances belong to Chicago and Pittsburgh alone. Chicago’s three Cups (two from Corey Crawford, one from Antti Niemi) were each between 0 and +2 GSAx — an average of just +1.7 GSAx. Extremely ordinary goaltending.

Of the 48 required wins in Pittsburgh’s three Cup titles, Fleury won 25 and Murray won 22. Jeff Zatkoff had the other. Those three Cup runs averaged -0.9 GSAx — slightly below average goaltending. Throw in Jordan Binnington’s vanilla 2019 (-0.3 GSAx) and Colorado’s ugly 2022 mark (Darcy Kuemper and Francouz combined for -7 GSAx) and you have 50% of recent Cups won with blah goaltending.

#5. But only two Cup winners were notably below average: While it’s jarring to see uninspiring goaltending rewarded so frequently in playoff lore, we rarely see poor goaltending immortalized. Only Fleury (2009) and Kuemper/Francouz (2022) won a Cup with 5 or more GSAx below average. Similarly when it comes to finalists, only Stuart Skinner (-4 GSAx last season) earned a D-grade. Unsurprisingly, all three goaltenders had high-powered offenses covering their miscues.

🥅 Closing Thoughts

An important caveat with the analysis is that our approach is simplified. Goaltenders can steal games offset by some no-shows. Or make well-timed saves in overtime or when their team is down a goal. By using their statistical performance over the entire playoffs, we aren’t capturing in-game or in-series ebbs and flows.

But that’s really the point. As much as we want to believe every goaltender carries or does not carry a ‘clutch gene,’ it’s not that simple. Goalies don’t pick and choose when to allow goals, nor can they count on their team to score at critical times. Binnington, for example, lost nine straight playoff starts after winning the Cup. He bested Hellebuyck at the 4 Nations Face-off under immense pressure but then allowed two late goals in Game 7 this past Sunday as part of a crushing collapse. So, is he or isn’t he clutch, again?

As fans, we have selective memories. We focus on a big save, a soft goal, or a first-star night. That’s what makes the playoffs a wild ride. And it’s why the goalie’s role is often overstated. Our analysis proves this. It’s why elite teams almost always win Stanley Cups — deep and well-coached groups that squeak out wins, ride some puck luck and navigate stretches of inconsistent goaltending.

Can goaltenders carry a team to a series or Cup victory? Absolutely. But Cup winners are less dependent on this happening than we think. Perhaps the updated hockey lesson is this: Great goaltending isn’t necessary to win the Stanley Cup… it’s just rare to survive bad goaltending.

Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from MoneyPuck.com, Hockey-Reference.com

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