Identifying 2021 Bounce-back Candidates (Forwards)
To find potential bounce-back candidates, I analyzed the underlying numbers of all the players in the NHL last season to find outliers.
In addition to positive regression in key areas, like Shooting% and On-ice SH%, helping their case for a bounce-back season is their spot in the lineup. Based on the early line combinations in training camp, I’ve used my best judgement to identify the top 2021 bounce-back candidates.
Jack Hughes – New Jersey Devils (C/LW)
The 2019 No.1 overall pick did not have a great rookie campaign. He scored just seven goals with 14 assists (21 points) in 61 games. Hughes has reportedly packed on 14 pounds this offseason and should be more prepared physically for the NHL game. In addition to being up to 180 pounds, pretty much everything went wrong for Hughes in 2020. He shot just 5.7 percent, which was fourth-lowest among forwards with at least 120 shots. Additionally, his 5.0 on-ice SH% was among the bottom-20 forwards. Both of those rates should bounce-back in a big way.
It’s hard to know exactly who his linemates will be in 2021 because both @Nico Hischier and @Jesper Bratt are not in camp yet. Still, Hughes is locked into the No.2 centre role and should have two of @Nikita Gusev, @Kyle Palmieri, @Andreas Johnsson or Bratt on his flanks. With @Travis Zajac taking on a lesser role, Hughes’ 15:52 ATOI should be on the rise this season.
Hughes was right in the middle of the pack in ExpectedGoalsFor/60 (2.30) but one of the biggest differences between his xGF/60 and actual GF/60. All signs are pointing in the right direction for Hughes, so don’t call the 19-year-old centre a bust just yet.
Kaapo Kakko – New York Rangers (RW)
I know it seems like I’m just taking the No.1 and No.2 picks from last year’s draft but they both fit perfectly into the bounce-back column. Kakko had 10 goals and 13 assists (23 points) in 66 games last season while averaging just 14:17 ATOI. The addition of @Alexis Lafrenière could have spelled the demise of Kakko’s 2021 season, but that doesn’t appear it will be the case. Lafrenière is expected to start on the third line, which means @Chris Kreider will stay on the left-side and Kakko is expected to open the season with @Artemi Panarin and @Ryan Strome. Kakko didn’t play with Panarin a lot last season but his numbers expectedly improved dramatically with Hart Trophy Finalist. His GF% jumped from 26.5% to 42.9% with Panarin and starting in the Rangers’ top-6 should jump-start him this season.
Like Hughes, Kakko had one of the lowest on-ice SH% in the NHL last year but that won’t be the case when you’re playing with Panarin and Strome.
Cam Atkinson – Columbus Blue Jackets (RW)
Injuries hampered Atkinson throughout the 2020 season and he’s ready to bounce-back in 2021. With Panarin in 2019, he scored 41 goals but Atkinson will be the first to tell you that he doesn’t need Panarin. “(Panarin) is a great player, no doubt. But I had f*****g 27 (goals) the year before Panarin and 35 the year before that. People are pretty quick to turn the page without really knowing what’s up. And shit like that … that really fuels my fire,” Atkinson told Aaron Portzline of The Athletic.
That sounds like a player I want on my fantasy team and based on his underlying numbers, he’s not wrong. Atkinson’s shot volume remained fantastic last season but shot a career-low 8.1 percent. Atkinson will get a new centre with @Max Domi coming over from Montreal and that should be a big upgrade from @Alexander Wennberg for him. Atkinson should be a lock for 20-plus goals and assists in this shortened season.
Phil Kessel – Arizona Coyotes (RW)
Kessel’s first year in Arizona did not go well. His numbers were the worst since his rookie season in 2007 but there is some hope for him to bounce-back in 2021. The decreased shot volume will hurt his chances of getting back on a 25-30 goal pace this season but his 6.5 on-ice SH% is due for positive regression. He has opened training camp with @Christian Dvorak and the two enjoyed some success in 2020. Kessel’s numbers took a turn for the better with Dvorak and he should return to fantasy relevancy this season. Someone has to score in Arizona.
Alexander Radulov – Dallas Stars (LW/RW)
Everyone will be quick to write Radulov off after posting just 34 points (15G / 19A) in 60 games in 2021. With @Tyler Seguin out for most of the upcoming season, many will think his bounce-back chances diminish, but his numbers with @Joe Paveksi suggest otherwise. In 2020, they averaged a very strong 29.5 SCF/60 and 13.1 HDCF/60 but the results weren’t there because of a 7.7 on-ice SH%. If they can continue to put up those scoring chance numbers, both Radulov and Pavelski have bounce-back appeal.
Radulov’s dip in shot volume is the only concern. His Shots/60 went from 9.1 to 7.9 and that coupled with a career-low SH% crushed his goal output. If his shot volume returns to the norm, Radulov could challenge for 20 goals in the shortened campaign.
Nino Niederreiter – Carolina Hurricanes (LW/RW)
I was expecting the Nino Niederreiter breakout in 2020… that did not come to fruition. Niederreiter had just 29 points (11G / 18A) in 67 games last year. His 9.6 SH% and 7.3 on-ice SH% were the worst rates since his rookie season, so there’s some post-hype (driven by me) appeal here.
The Hurricanes’ lines aren’t concrete but he has been with @Sebastian Aho and @Teuvo Teravainen in the first three days of training camp. His upside would skyrocket if that’s the case on opening night. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour may want @Andrei Svechnikov to drive his own line with @Vincent Trocheck and Niederreiter will reap the benefits. Niederreiter saw ample time on that line last year and it drastically improved his underlying numbers but their on-ice SH% was just 5.98 in 316:16 5v5 TOI. That leapt up to 11.7 when Svechnikov was with Aho/Teravainen, which is probably why they kept going back to that configuration. Still, Aho, Teravainen and Niederreiter won’t continue to shoot at 5.98 percent while they’re averaging 28.5 SCF/60 and 10.2 HDCF/60.
Advanced stats via NaturalStatTrick and HockeyReference.