Introducing DFS 5v5 Score

During the 2021 NHL season, I will be beefing up our DFO Premium package, starting with the 5v5 Advantage Score.

Building off of Line Matching that Adam Daly created (support him via Patreon here) I have created a 5v5 Matchup Rating that will allow you to quickly identify the top stacks of the night.

I use a variety of possession and Expected Goal metrics (thanks NaturalStatTrick and HockeyReference) along with projected 5v5 ice-time and matchups to find which lines have advantages. Using historical line data along with the projected ice-time and matchups we can identify which lines have the most favourable matchups and cross-reference it with the other lines on the slate. With 0 (Zero) representing Average, a line with a score of +0.1 is above-average for the slate. Conversely, a line with a negative rating is a below-average play.

Because we have the most accurate Line Combinations available, these matchups are updated as soon as line combinations are altered and will represent the most accurate lines and matchups that you can find.

Using the first game of the NHL season as an example: with Philadelphia Flyers as the home team, we projected PHI1 (@Sean Couturier’s line) to match-up with @Sidney Crosby’s line for ≈61 percent of his ice-time. Since the Penguins’ project to spread their ice-time out more evenly, that results in Crosby facing Couturier ≈77 percent of the time. Since Couturier’s line is one of the best on the slate at limiting Scoring Chances Against, PIT1 is projected for less Scoring Chances For than they will be in almost any other matchup.

The cool thing about 5v5 Score is that each line is graded on the average for that given slate. So PIT1’s matchup vs. 77% PHI1 might look solid on Wednesday’s five-game slate but look worse on Friday’s six-game slate because other lines have more favourable matchups.

Since finding the best matchups isn’t the end-all-be-all of building a DFS lineup, we’ve also included each player’s DraftKings salary and Line Stack Salary to help identify the best matchups at each price. Then use the Line Combinations pages to identify players that correlate with them on the power-play.

This tool was built to help speed up the process of identifying good matchups and building winning DFS lineups quickly. Finding the top stacks and running them through our Lineup Optimizer will allow you to win money without spending a lot of time building lineups.

Once LIVE on the Premium side of the site. Each slate will also have a breakdown of these stack scores and the slate as a whole.

Keep in mind, this tool will become more and more accurate as the season progresses. We have very little data on some of these lines right now because there are new players on the roster or brand new line combinations. Additionally, the coaching matchups will become more clear, especially with the smaller divisions and playing the same teams repeatedly.

I am also working on building a similar model that will help predict PP usage and production to get the full outlook on each game and each slate.

For now, sign up for DFO Premium for as little as $9.99 and try out this new tool and the lineup optimizer!

If there is something that you think that could/should be added to the table to make it more user friendly, please reach out to me on Twitter @DailyFaceoff