Jake Guentzel enters Olympics as Team USA’s unsung X-Factor
Tomorrow, for the first time since a bronze-medal game debacle in 2014, Team USA will take the ice at the Olympics with NHL players.
Expectations have never been higher. The team has never been more stacked.
With top-10 NHL draft picks and franchise cornerstones like Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Jack Eichel and Matthew and Brady Tkachuk up front, Norris-Trophy-caliber defensemen in Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski and Jaccob Slavin in the back end and reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes, the U.S. has every reason to believe it can challenge Team Canada for gold.
When the Americans fell short in a hard-fought championship game in overtime at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off, it hammered that home. The gap between hockey’s two super powers was far narrower than it was in 2014.
At that tournament, there’s a strong case that the best American on the ice wasn’t any of those aforementioned players. Aside from Werenski’s production from the back end and Slavin’s defensive wizardry, it was Jake Guentzel, the Nebraska native who tied for the team lead among forwards with three goals and four points.
He’s not the captain. He’s not headlining any of the marketing materials. He’s not one-half of a duo of brothers taking the sport by storm, but he’s the most cerebral, intelligent and opportunistic forward the team has, and those are the traits that could make the difference when the slimmest of margins matter most.
Think of the plays that decide these best-on-best games. Sidney Crosby’s golden goal in overtime in 2010 happened because he intelligently crashed toward the net after he saw a vacuum of space for Jarome Iginla to pass into off a cycle play. That game was only in overtime because of the body and stick positioning of Zach Parise on his last-minute, game-tying goal, as he was able to pounce on a rebound in an instant to beat Roberto Luongo.
Much is made of the speed and physicality required to compete in these matchups, but just as important are the hockey sense and IQ necessary to process the game at a high level at those high speeds, facing that relentless physicality.
There is perhaps not a more adaptable star in present-day professional hockey than Guentzel. In his youth, it was easy for evaluators to miss. Given he was an undersized 2013 draftee without eye-popping speed or an elite shot, there wasn’t much reason to see his traits and project him as an impact NHL player.
He finished sixth in the USHL in scoring in his draft year, with two of the players finishing ahead of him his age or younger. Both topped out at the ECHL level.
When Guentzel got the call-up to join the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins in their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup, he popped immediately. Even with 33 points in 40 regula- season games and 21 points in 25 Stanley Cup Playoff games that year, it was easy to assign most of the credit for his production to Crosby, who has elevated numerous wingers throughout his career.
Captain Canada’s excellence surely helped, but that was the first glimpse of the smarts, adaptability and vision that make Guentzel one of the most valuable assets Team USA has today.
After a storied tenure in Pittsburgh, Guentzel was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes at the 2024 trade deadline. While most stars moved at that time of year require adjustment periods, and you’d certainly expect one for a player leaving Crosby’s wing, Guentzel was different. He fit in seamlessly with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, and Guentzel’s production with Carolina that season (34 points in 28 games between the regular season and playoffs) bettered the rate he put up with the Pens.
When a contract extension with Carolina didn’t materialize, Guentzel again latched on with star players with Tampa Bay. Whether he’s playing with Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel or whoever injuries dictate Guentzel lines up with, he produces.
It’s the things Guentzel does well that have him well-appreciated as a star in the league but kept out of the elite of the elite tiers.
Few in the sport are better when it comes to understanding angles, leverage, space and manipulating the expectations of defenders and goalies when making split-second decisions on the attack.
Despite not having the speed and stick handling of Kirill Kaprizov or the size and shot of Mikko Rantanen, Guentzel has been a more efficient 5-on-5 producer than both of them over the past three seasons.
Based on Team USA’s practice lines, it looks like Guentzel’s former coach in Pittsburgh Mike Sullivan knows exactly what he has. Guentzel is in the top six, joined by captain Auston Matthews and emerging star Matt Boldy on a line that will shoulder a lot offensive responsibility for the Americans.
Matthews is arguably the most important factor for Team USA’s success. The best goal scorer on this side of Alexander Ovechkin has not been himself for the better part of a year now, and getting his linemates right is crucial to giving him a chance to rise to the level of Canada’s top forwards.
Guentzel has shown he can work with all sorts of star players, and last year he proved he could stand out as the top-producing forward on Team USA. If he can do that next to Matthews and put the Toronto Maple Leafs star in position to strike in the biggest moments, the small winger from Nebraska could be the reason the Americans claim gold for the first time since 1980.
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