Line Matching: October 30th
8 games to look through tonight, lots to cover although a good portion of tonight’s teams don’t line-match at home. On a side note, this is my first day trying to quit smoking with the products from https://canadianvaporizers.ca/ so if you ask me any questions on Twitter I might smack you. SMACK. Please refer to @jrh002 on twitter, our premium chat, or the DFO Daily Fantasy Show with any questions.
New York Islanders vs. Vegas Golden Knights
| Vegas | New York Islanders | Advantage |
| Conclusion: With seven goals (ten points) in his last four games, John Tavares and NYI1 should find all the ownership tonight after getting his price bumped just $100 on DraftKings. With Josh Bailey replacing Jordan Eberle on that line, there’s also cost-savings for someone looking to cheap out as well. They’ll see mostly VGK1 and VGK2 as they don’t straight line-match, both of which are poor possession lines that are fairly good at shot suppression. Against NYI1 though they’ll be over-matched, and the Knights won’t have the already-famed home ice advantage. NYI2 in a very small sample have looked good as well and will have essentially the same matchup, so they make a nice lower-owned pivot play. |
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Arizona Coyotes
| Arizona | Philadelphia | Advantage |
| ARI1 (Domi-Stepan-Keller) | PHI1 (Giroux-Couturier-Voracek) | PHI1: With the Flyers’ top line handily winning both the possession and scoring chance battle and fully matching for 8+ minutes against ARI1, they should be in for a great night. PHI1 has gotten 0.65SOG/minute while ARI1 have allowed similar numbers against while allowing scoring chances at a high rate. |
| ARI2 (Perlini-Dvorak-Duclair) | PHI2 (Weal-Filppula-Simmonds) | PHI2: Dvorak is still finding his way as a 2C in this league, struggling with Duclair (~42% all metrics) and Perlini in a small sample. PHI2 would have the smallest edge in this though as they too have struggled, but manage to outshoot opponents. |
| Conclusion: With Scott Wedgewood between the pipes for Arizona, expect PHI1 to have a ton of ownership tonight, for good reason. If targeting the smaller ownership in this game, PHI2 has a small edge and Wayne Simmonds gets PP1 exposure if a Josh Stack is in play. ARI1 will lose their 5v5 matchup but is still getting a high number of scoring chances for, although Philadelphia is one of the best shot suppression teams in the league so it’s a risky play. |
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Boston Bruins
| Boston | Columbus | Advantage |
| BOS1 (Marchand-Bergeron-Bjork) | CBJ1 (Panarin-Foligno-Anderson) | BOS1: Nick Foligno has performed admirably in his first spins at centre since getting drafted, holding his head above water in CF% but losing out on both SF% and SC%. Meanwhile, the Bergeron line is putting up scoring chances at a great rate and keeping the puck away from their net at 55%. |
| BOS2 (DeBrusk-Backes-Pastrnak) | CBJ2 (Jenner-Dubinsky-???) | Even: They haven’t played much together thanks to diverticulitis, but BOS2 without Krecji doesn’t drive the play. On the Columbus side, Jenner and Dubinsky together have been pretty ugly – 42% CF%/SF%/SC%. |
| Conclusion: CBJ2 would be a halfway appealing line if Cam Atkinson was playing, but that will be a question mark for now and even with him, possession numbers aren’t anything special. BOS1 should have the edge against the Foligno line and shouldn’t garner much ownership, but there are stronger line matches to target tonight. |
Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens
| Montreal | Ottawa | Advantage |
| MTL2 (Pacioretty-Danault-Shaw) | OTT1 (Dzingel-Brassard-Stone) | MTL2: The Danault line is absolutely bonkers good: 60% CF%, 60%+ SF%, and 55% SC%. On the Sens’ side of the ice, Brassard and Stone have been out-possessed but still out-chance the opposition. With Ryan Dzingel in place on OTT1 the scales should tip the scoring chances back MTL’s way, which could make MTL2 the low-owned play of the night. |
| MTL1 (Lehkonen-Drouin-Byron) | OTT2 (Hoffman-Pageau-DiDomenico) | MTL1: Matched up against a Pageau line that’s sub 40% in CF%, sub-50% in both SF% and SC%, Drouin and Lehkonen should feast tonight. All three of MTL1 are kissing 60% in every possession metric. |
| Conclusion: Ottawa is an interesting team because they consistently lose possession matchups, but typically minimize both scoring chances and shots against. Unfortunately, they’re matched up against a Montreal team that’s been losing a lot of games but absolutely dominating on the ice – with a PDO of 0.932. With so many good lines to target tonight, MTL should slip through the cracks a touch. |
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
| Tampa Bay | Florida | Advantage |
| TB2 (Palat-Point-Gourde) | FLA1 (Huberdeau-Barkov-Dadonov) | FLA1: This line has a 58% CF%, an even better SF% (60+) and with Dadonov put up ~0.60 scoring chances/minute. Against TB2 who are kissing the 40% possession mark, FLA1 should dominate this matchup. |
| TB1 (Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov) | FLA2 (McGinn-Trocheck-Vrbata) | TB1: Trocheck has been pretty awful this season (sub-40% without his regular linemates), and is allowing 0.66 shots against per minute. Against a powerful TB1 – 0.6 SC/minute – expect Tampa’s top line to come out firing. |
| Conclusion: Florida typically uses their top line against top competition, but in their first (home) game against Tampa Bay, FLA1 saw both TB1 and TB2. In their two games this season, FLA1 caved in TB2 in possession and chances but got out-scored, and got handled by TB1 – the *smart* thing to do for the Cats would be to roll out their first line against TB2. If they do, FLA1 is definitely in play, which would also open up TB1. If they don’t, they’ll still see ~4 minutes at minimum against each other which isn’t as enticing but still a clear victory for the Cats. These two teams have played each other twice already, combining for eight and nine goals in those two games, so expect some fire power. |
St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings
| Los Angeles | St. Louis | Advantage |
| LAK1 (Iafallo-Kopitar-Brown) | STL1 (Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko) | STL1: Schenn/Schwartz have a massive – MASSIVE – scoring chance rate together, 0.69/minute (nice). That number doesn’t change with Tarasenko on their line, and they’re around 55% in every other metric. While Kopitar’s line has been good, they do lose in scoring chances (allowing 0.53/minute). |
| LAK2 (Pearson-Kempe-Toffoli) | STL2 (Sobotka-Stastny-Steen) | Even: Playing with Steen has helped Stastny’s possession numbers a bit, but Sobotka hasn’t been great from a possession point of view. Conversely, Kempe/Peason/Toffoli have been puck drivers that are getting 55% of shots for, but also allowing more scoring chances than they’re getting. This should even out. |
| Conclusion: STL1 is one of the best lines in the league, but have a tough-ish matchup against the Kopitar line. While the possession battle might be close to even, STL1 should out-chance the Kings tremendously, and make a very nice line to target tonight. |
Vancouver Canucks vs. Dallas Stars
| Dallas | Vancouver | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Vancouver doesn’t line match. VAN1 is good at neutralizing threats (57% CF%, 18.9SCA/60, 5.87HDA/60) but will be hard-pressed to keep that up against the top line of the Stars any time they’re on the ice. The more appealing matchup in this game will be when DAL1 is on at the same time as VAN2, who are allowing 31.98SCA/60 and are very high-event on both sides of the ice. Not much to write about Dallas’ top line, they’re the most powerful line in the NHL at 5v5 although their 5v5 scoring isn’t where it should be yet. |
San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
| Toronto | San Jose | Advantage |
| Conclusion: San Jose doesn’t line match, which will keep the Sharks top two lines in play because it will minimize the time each have to play TOR2 (Kadri). Expect Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun to see a lot of time against TOR1 which should neutralize some of Matthews’ scoring threat – although the D pair are sub-50% in possession, they’re effective at minimizing scoring chances and shots against. If using SJS1, feel free to completely ignore Kevin Labanc who might be the weakest player on the puck the league has ever seen. |
Lines to Target
- STL1
- MTL1 or MTL2
- PHI1
- FLA1