Matt Larkin’s 10 fantasy hockey busts for 2023-24

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Matt Larkin’s 10 fantasy hockey busts for 2023-24
Credit: Mark Stone (© Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Flop. Disaster. Catastrophe. These synonyms come to mind when people toss around the term “bust” in a fantasy hockey context. But I find it too limiting, exaggerated in its negativity. If I’m trying to help you win your league, I can’t just point out a handful of players I expect to fall on their faces. The fruit hangs too low in that case.

Most drafts are lost in the early rounds, not the late ones. So in identifying my fantasy bust candidates, I’m still naming plenty of good players. These guys are far from useless. They may even help your fantasy team if you snag them late enough. But I expect them to underperform relative to their average draft positions, a.k.a how early you typically need to pick them if you want them.

I’m likely to shy away from these 10 players unless the price (Yahoo ADP) is unexpectedly fair. I suggest you do, too.

Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes (ADP: 79.0; My rank: 155th)

Andersen was tremendous in 2021-22. He posted the second-highest save percentage of his career, saved the sixth-most goals above average in the league and finished fourth in the Vezina Trophy vote. But he has surrounded that great year with three poor ones in his last four seasons. The Canes were an incredibly stingy team last year in spite of Andersen, not because of him. Among 55 netminders who played 1,000 or more minutes at 5-on-5 last season, he sat 37th in GSAA/60, grading out as backup-goalie caliber. His 6-foot-4, 238-pound frame has also struggled to withstand the rigors of the NHL schedule of late, too. He has started fewer than half his team’s games in two of his past three seasons. There’s a reason the Canes brought back Antti Raanta on top of Andersen despite having Pyotr Kochetkov signed to an affordable deal; they aren’t confident that everyone can stay healthy. Andersen is part of a three-headed crease monster yet is coming off draft boards as a top-12 goalie right now. No thank you.

Jamie Benn, LW, Stars (ADP: 75.2; My rank: 163rd

In his age-33 season, Benn looked like the old all-star version of himself who won a scoring title in 2014-15. His 33 goals and 78 points were five-year highs. They also came with easily the highest shooting percentage of his career. Everything about his 2022-23 screams regression. With Wyatt Johnston emerging as an exciting young scorer and Matt Duchene signing as a UFA, Benn could also face more competition for power-play looks. He equalled his career high with 30 power-play points last season.

Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers (ADP: 74.4; My rank: 162nd)

Beware the recency bias. ‘Bob’ returned to his two-time Vezina Trophy winning form in the first three rounds of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, dropping jaws with a .935 save percentage. Before that amazing run, he posted a .901 save percentage during the regular season and lost his starting gig to third-stringer Alex Lyon. After his amazing run: Bad Bob showed up in the Stanley Cup Final with an .844 SV%. Bobrovsky was bad for much longer than he was good last season. He’s also posted a SV% lower than the league average in three of his past four seasons. Now, he has competition from capable backup Anthony Stolarz and, eventually, gifted young goaltender Spencer Knight, returning from the player assistance program after seeking treatment for his obsessive compulsive disorder. Bobrovsky is being drafted as the 11th goalie off the board on average in Yahoo leagues at the moment. That’s far too rich of an investment for someone whose grip on a starting job isn’t as sticky as some might believe.

Phillip Danault, C, Kings (ADP: 169.4; My rank: 221st)

Danault is a shutdown center and a darned good one. He also functioned as the Kings’ second-line pivot the past couple seasons, which meant he was expected to drive a fair amount of offense. He bagged a career-high 27 goals in 2021-22 and set a career high in points with 54 last season. He accomplished the latter picking up 20 of those points on the power play, however. Enter Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Jets’ off-season acquisition. He and Kopitar will be locked into the top two center positions. Danault will retain a prominent role, likely alongside usual wingers Trevor Moore and Viktor Arvidsson, but the ice time could come down a bit now that Danault is technically a third-liner. The power-play looks could also shrink, depending on how coach Todd McLellan decides to deploy Dubois. Danault remains an excellent real-life player, but I suspect the previous two seasons will go down as his fantasy peak.

Tony DeAngelo, D, Hurricanes (ADP: 128.5; My rank: 247th)

That’s a rich ADP for someone with little chance to play higher than the third pair on his team. DeAngelo is being drafted ahead of Shea Theodore and Zach Werenski. Clearly, drafters expect DeAngelo to slide back into the role he held with Carolina during his previous stint there in 2021-22. That season, he racked up 53 points in 64 games while leading the team in power play time on ice per game at 3:03. Now, he comes back to an altered roster with Brent Burns occupying the top-pair right ‘D’ slot and prime power-play position. Even if DeAngelo eats into some of that time, Burns will eat plenty into DeAngelo’s role, so it’ll be tough to match what he accomplished a couple years back.

Max Domi, LW, Maple Leafs (ADP: 155.8; My rank: 216th)

Max Domi, bad team: good in fantasy. He posted a respectable 49 points in 60 games on a tanking Blackhawks team last season. Max Domi, good team: bad in fantasy. He barely made a blip on the Hurricanes and Dallas Stars, respectively, once he landed there after the trade deadline in each of his past two seasons and played lower in their lineups. Competing on the Leafs, he’ll have to beat out Tyler Bertuzzi and Matthew Knies to earn consideration for a left wing job on the top two lines. Domi also isn’t sniffing Toronto’s elite PP1 unit. So we could be looking at a bottom-sixer who plays 15 minutes a night and gets PP2 work at best. Domi’s downside needs to be priced into his draft position. Instead, he appears to have helium because he’s a brand name on a big-market team.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Bruins (ADP: 55.4; My rank: 79th)

McAvoy is a top-50 hockey player in the world. He’s a horse who can do everything on D: move the puck, shut down the opposition and dish out physical punishment. But his real-life reputation has inflated his ADP to the point he needs to be an elite fantasy producer to justify where he’s being selected. He hasn’t topped 10 goals, 56 points or 166 shots in a season. He helps in the banger categories, but it’s not like he’s in the Nurse/Seider/Trouba Combo King echelon. McAvoy provides B+ production across the board, has had trouble staying healthy of late and plays on a Bruins team that endured a huge talent exodus this summer. It’s baffling to see him going ahead of Quinn Hughes, the first defenseman in 29 years to record consecutive 60-assist seasons, and Miro Heiskanen, who beat McAvoy’s career high point total by 17 last year.

Dmitry Orlov, D, Hurricanes (ADP: 166.5; My rank: 212th)

What do 12 goals and 36 points have in common? They’re numbers Orlov has never eclipsed in his 11-season career. His ADP suggests poolies are all-in on the ‘Orr-lov’ narrative, which emerged when he played the best offensive hockey of his career after the Bruins rented him at the trade deadline last season. His career sample size suggests that run was somewhat of a fluke. He wasn’t even a major offensive weapon on the peak Washington Capitals, remember. Now, he joins a crowded Carolina D-corps that doesn’t need him to light it up offensively and isn’t a lock to use him on the power play at all. Orlov is a solid all-around defenseman who does a little bit of everything, and that makes him a nice real-life acquisition for Carolina. But I sincerely doubt he’s a D1 or even a D2 in fantasy out of nowhere at 32 years old. I’d expect a return to his normal levels of production.

Ilya Samsonov, G, Maple Leafs (ADP: 82.5; My rank: 152nd)

Am I doing Samsonov dirty here? Graded on GSAA/60, he was a top-10 goaltender in the NHL last season. Fair. The Leafs and goalie coach Curtis Sanford tapped into the talent that once made Samsonov the best netminding prospect in the world. He also delivered a SV% of .913 or higher in every month but one. He was a roller coaster of inconsistency in the playoffs, however, and prospect Joseph Woll outplayed Samsonov after an injury took him out of Round 2. Woll is expected to push Samsonov for starts this season and, given Samsonov’s injury history, it’s possible the pair end up in a full platoon. The Leafs went to arbitration with Samsonov, and he walked out with a one-year deal taking him to unrestricted free agency next summer. Then, they added experienced Martin Jones as a third goalie. They weren’t behaving like a team committed to making Samsonov a bellcow this season.

Mark Stone, RW, Golden Knights (ADP: 62.8; My rank: 106th)

I’ll give Stone credit for finally upping his shot output and making himself into less of a one-dimensional fantasy asset. But how many games of Stone are you paying for? His chronic back issue isn’t going away any time soon. He’ll likely have to be load-managed for the rest of his career. He’s played 80 games over his past two seasons combined. Great real-life player, key member of Vegas’ Stanley Cup winning team, but I’m not touching him. A point-per-game pace doesn’t help you much if it’s yielding 40 points.

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