Matt Larkin’s fantasy hockey top 150 playoff rankings: a tiered system

Are you good at fantasy hockey? Congrats. But never assume that makes you good at playoff fantasy hockey.

I’m not talking “fantasy hockey playoffs,” a.k.a. the final weeks of head-to-head pools in which teams battle through brackets. I’m talking fantasy leagues that commence at the start of the real-life Stanley Cup playoffs.

What makes playoff pools so different? It’s probably obvious. It’s not a matter of selecting the best, most productive players available at every pick. Talent matters, but volume is imperative. How many games will each guy play? How far will his team go in the postseason? Drafting players that make it through multiple rounds is at least as important, if not more important, than drafting the best players.

With that principle in mind, I’m introducing a new way to look at fantasy rankings for the playoffs here on Daily Faceoff. I’ll still rank my top 150 players – but they will be distinctly tiered based on how far I expect each player’s team to go – and how difficult their divisional bracket shapes up to be. The Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames are the two teams I have making the final four whom I project to have the easiest paths. They thus get the biggest boosts in my rankings. The Eastern Conference has just as many elite teams and fantasy players, but only two of the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes can advance past Round 2. I like Nathan MacKinnon and Johnny Gaudreau more than Auston Matthews and Jonathan Huberdeau, for example, because the former two are far more likely to play three rounds, a.k.a. 12-21 games.

A specific example like that doesn’t mean you have to follow my predictions precisely. These are guidelines. If in doubt, fill out your own bracket first, then use the philosophy behind each tier below and move the players around based on how far you expect their teams to advance.

Let’s begin. Quick disclaimers:

– The scoring system: goals and assists for skaters, wins for goalies, one point per category. Playoff pools tend be stripped down and more casual than season-long circuits.

– Players marked with asterisks are expected to return from injury in time for, or early in, the playoffs and are, in some cases, placed a tier below where they’d be if 100 percent healthy (i.e. Aaron Ekblad).

– For a few instances in which teams have not settled on their Game 1 starters (Boston, Los Angeles, Washington etc.), I’ve clustered goaltending tandem partners together for now.

TIER 1: Superstar Player, Elite Team, Easier Path

These are your early first-round picks, superstars playing on top Stanley Cup contenders with strong odds to reach the final four or better.

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche

Mikko Rantanen, RW, Avalanche

Darcy Kuemper, G, Avalanche

Cale Makar, D, Avalanche

Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Flames

Jacob Markstrom, G, Flames

Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Flames

TIER 2: Superstar Player, Elite Team, Difficult Path

These players deserve early-round consideration, and many are top-tier picks in traditional fantasy pools. But before taking the plunge, ask yourself: how many rounds will his team win? Don’t forget: only one of the Panthers, Leafs and Lightning can reach the Eastern Conference final. But each has the ceiling to go all the way.

Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Panthers

Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Lightning

Aleskander Barkov, C, Panthers

Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs

Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning

Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs

Steven Stamkos, C, Lightning

TIER 3: Superstar Player, Good Team

These players are fantasy monsters in the regular season. Most are worthy of early-round picks. But how many games will they give you in the playoffs? They carry some risk. If you’re bullish on their teams, bump them up to the next tier.

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers

Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers

Igor Shesterkin, G, Rangers

Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild

Artemi Panarin, LW, Rangers

Brad Marchand, LW, Bruins

David Pastrnak, RW, Bruins

Adam Fox, D, Rangers

Chris Kreider, LW, Rangers

TIER 4: Elite Player, Elite team

These players produce in the point-per-game range on teams with potential to make deep runs.Those on the easy-path teams, such as Nazem Kadri, have a chance to outproduce fantasy superstars in the tier above. A few standouts from non-elite teams make the cut in this tier, too.

Nazem Kadri, C, Avalanche

Victor Hedman, D, Lightning

Elias Lindholm, C, Flames

Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes

Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers

Claude Giroux, C, Panthers

Brayden Point, C, Lightning

Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Hurricanes

Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers*

John Tavares, C, Maple Leafs

Devon Toews, D, Avalanche

Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs

William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers

Teuvo Teravainen, LW, Hurricanes

Mika Zibanejad, C, Rangers

Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Blues

Robert Thomas, C, Blues

Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Avalanche*

TIER 5: Good Player, Elite Team

Players in here are strong mid-round contributors in standard fantasy formats but could be stars in your playoff pool, capable of putting up 15-20 points if their teams make deep runs. Make sure you grab a few players from this tier.

Andre Burakovsky, LW, Avalanche

MacKenzie Weegar, D, Panthers

Anthony Duclair, LW, Panthers

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Panthers

Jack Campbell, G, Maple Leafs

Andrew Mangiapane, RW, Flames

Mason Marchment, RW, Panthers

Valeri Nichushkin, LW, Avalanche

Alex Killorn, LW, Lightning

Noah Hanifin, D, Lightning

Sam Bennett, C, Panthers

Tony DeAngelo, D, Hurricanes

Anton Lundell, C, Panthers

Tyler Toffoli, RW, Flames

Michael Bunting, LW, Maple Leafs*

Ondrej Palat, LW, Lightning

Vincent Trocheck, C, Hurricanes

Tier 6 Elite Player, Good Team

These players anchor regular-season fantasy teams and are undoubtedly more valuable than the tier-5 guys on a game-to-game basis. But they’re at risk of playing fewer games.

Kevin Fiala, LW, Wild

Evander Kane, LW, Oilers

Patrice Bergeron, C, Bruins

Pavel Buchnevich, RW, Blues

Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues

Charlie McAvoy, D, Bruins

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, LW, Oilers

Zach Hyman, LW, Oilers

Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers*

TIER 7: Superstar or Elite Player, Underdog Team

They’re too good to go undrafted. They might even get you 10 points in a seven-game series. But they have long odds to go deep, so you don’t want to take many of them.

Roman Josi, D, Predators

Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals*

Sidney Crosby, C, Penguins

Jake Guentzel, LW, Penguins

John Carlson, D, Capitals

Filip Forsberg, LW, Predators

Jason Robertson, LW, Stars

Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Capitals

Matt Duchene, C, Predators

Kris Letang, D, Penguins

Roope Hintz, C, Stars

Joe Pavelski, RW, Stars

Bryan Rust, RW, Penguins

Evgeni Malkin, C, Penguins

Anze Kopitar, C, Kings

Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals

John Klingberg, D, Stars

Miro Heiskanen, D, Stars

TIER 8: Good player, Good Team

The Stanley Cup playoffs are unpredictable. Every season, a team outside the elite tier makes a surprising run. If you have a hunch about a team you like – such as the Wild, for instance – grab a few guys from this tier. If you’re right, you likely win your pool.

Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Wild

Ryan Hartman, C, Wild

Mats Zuccarello, RW, Wild*

Ville Husso, G, Blues

Mike Smith, G, Oilers

Taylor Hall, LW, Bruins

Brayden Schenn, C, Blues

David Perron, RW, Blues

Matt Boldy, RW, Wild

Torey Krug, D, Blues

Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Wild

Ryan O’Reilly, C, Blues

Linus Ullmark, G, Bruins

Jeremy Swayman, G, Bruins

Justin Faulk, D, Blues

Ryan Strome, C, Rangers

Andrew Copp, LW, Rangers*

Marcus Foligno, LW, Wild

Jared Spurgeon, D, Wild

Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers

Ivan Barbashev, C, Blues

Cam Talbot, G, Wild

TIER 9: Depth Player, Elite Team

These players wouldn’t be drafted in most shallow leagues and maybe even some medium leagues during the regular season but are good late-round playoff picks because they could accumulate volume. Do you want 4-7 games of a superstar on an underdog team, or 20-plus games from one of these players? Pick the team you’re backing to go all the way and load up on depth guys from that team with your last few selections.

Rasmus Andersson, D, Flames

Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning

Mikhail Sergachev, D, Lightning

Antti Raanta, G, Hurricanes

Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Avalanche

Samuel Girard, D, Avalanche

Mikael Backlund, C, Flames

Blake Coleman, LW, Flames

Gustav Forsling, D, Panthers

Alex Newhook, C, Avalanche

Bowen Byram, D, Avalanche

J.T. Compher, C, Avalanche

Nino Niederreiter, RW, Hurricanes

Alexander Kerfoot, LW, Maple Leafs

Seth Jarvis, RW, Hurricanes

Ilya Mikheyev, LW, Maple Leafs

Dillon Dube, LW, Flames

Nick Paul, LW, Lightning

Brandon Montour, D, Panthers

Jaccob Slavin, D, Hurricanes

Ross Colton, C, Lightning

Corey Perry, RW, Lightning

Oliver Kylington, D, Flames

Martin Necas, RW, Hurricanes

TIER 10: The Leftovers

These roster-filler players are perfectly draftable in most competitive regular-season leagues, but whether you pick them for your 2022 playoff pool will depend on whether you think their teams have a chance.

Nicklas Backstrom, C, Capitals

Rickard Rakell, RW, Penguins

T.J. Oshie, RW, Capitals

Casey DeSmith, G, Penguins

Vitek Vanecek, G, Capitals

Ilya Samsonov, G, Capitals

Jacob Trouba, D, Rangers

Brandon Saad, LW, Blues

Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes*

Ryan Johansen, C, Predators

Adrian Kempe, LW, Kings

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Kings

Phillip Danault, C, Kings

Trevor Moore, LW, Kings

Mikael Granlund, C, Predators

Tanner Jeannot, LW, Predators

Cal Petersen, G, Kings

Jonathan Quick, G, Kings

Too Long, Didn’t Read: OVERALL TOP 150

1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche
2. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Avalanche
3. Darcy Kuemper, G, Avalanche
4. Cale Makar, D, Avalanche
5. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Flames
6. Jacob Markstrom, G, Flames
7. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Flames
8. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Panthers
9. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Lightning
10. Aleskander Barkov, C, Panthers
11. Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs
12. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning
13. Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs
14. Steven Stamkos, C, Lightning
15. Connor McDavid, C, Oilers
16. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers
17. Igor Shesterkin, G, Rangers
18. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild
19. Artemi Panarin, LW, Rangers
20. Brad Marchand, LW, Bruins
21. David Pastrnak, RW, Bruins
22. Adam Fox, D, Rangers
23. Chris Kreider, LW, Rangers
24. Nazem Kadri, C, Avalanche
25. Victor Hedman, D, Lightning
26. Elias Lindholm, C, Flames
27. Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes
28. Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers
29. Claude Giroux, C, Panthers
30. Brayden Point, C, Lightning
31. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Hurricanes
32. Aaron Ekblad, D, Panthers*
33. John Tavares, C, Maple Leafs
34. Devon Toews, D, Avalanche
35. Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs
36. William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs
37. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers
38. Teuvo Teravainen, LW, Hurricanes
39. Mika Zibanejad, C, Rangers
40. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Blues
41. Robert Thomas, C, Blues
42. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Avalanche*
43. Andre Burakovsky, LW, Avalanche
44. MacKenzie Weegar, D, Panthers
45. Anthony Duclair, LW, Panthers
46. Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Panthers
47. Jack Campbell, G, Maple Leafs
48. Andrew Mangiapane, RW, Flames
49. Mason Marchment, RW, Panthers
50. Valeri Nichushkin, LW, Avalanche
51. Alex Killorn, LW, Lightning
52. Noah Hanifin, D, Lightning
53. Sam Bennett, C, Panthers
54. Tony DeAngelo, D, Hurricanes
55. Anton Lundell, C, Panthers
56. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Flames
57. Michael Bunting, LW, Maple Leafs*
58. Ondrej Palat, LW, Lightning
59. Vincent Trocheck, C, Hurricanes
60. Kevin Fiala, LW, Wild
61. Evander Kane, LW, Oilers
62. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bruins
63. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, Blues
64. Jordan Kyrou, RW, Blues
65. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bruins
66. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, LW, Oilers
67. Zach Hyman, LW, Oilers
68. Darnell Nurse, D, Oilers*
69. Roman Josi, D, Predators
70. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals*
71. Sidney Crosby, C, Penguins
72. Jake Guentzel, LW, Penguins
73. John Carlson, D, Capitals
74. Filip Forsberg, LW, Predators
75. Jason Robertson, LW, Stars
76. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Capitals
77. Matt Duchene, C, Predators
78. Kris Letang, D, Penguins
79. Roope Hintz, C, Stars
80. Joe Pavelski, RW, Stars
81. Bryan Rust, RW, Penguins
82. Evgeni Malkin, C, Penguins
83. Anze Kopitar, C, Kings
84. Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals
85. John Klingberg, D, Stars
86. Miro Heiskanen, D, Stars
87. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Wild
88. Ryan Hartman, C, Wild
89. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Wild*
90. Ville Husso, G, Blues
91. Mike Smith, G, Oilers
92. Taylor Hall, LW, Bruins
93. Brayden Schenn, C, Blues
94. David Perron, RW, Blues
95. Matt Boldy, RW, Wild
96. Torey Krug, D, Blues
97. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Wild
98. Ryan O’Reilly, C, Blues
99. Linus Ullmark, G, Bruins
100. Jeremy Swayman, G, Bruins
101. Justin Faulk, D, Blues
102. Ryan Strome, C, Rangers
103. Andrew Copp, LW, Rangers*
104. Marcus Foligno, LW, Wild
105. Jared Spurgeon, D, Wild
106. Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers
107. Ivan Barbashev, C, Blues
108. Cam Talbot, G, Wild
109. Rasmus Andersson, D, Flames
110. Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning
111. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Lightning
112. Antti Raanta, G, Hurricanes
113. Artturi Lehkonen LW, Avalanche
114. Samuel Girard, D, Avalanche
115. Mikael Backlund, C, Flames
116. Blake Coleman, LW, Flames
117. Gustav Forsling, D, Panthers
118. Alex Newhook, C, Avalanche
119. Bowen Byram, D, Avalanche
120. JT Compher, C, Avalanche
121. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Hurricanes
122. Alexander Kerfoot, LW, Maple Leafs
123. Seth Jarvis, RW, Hurricanes
124. Ilya Mikheyev, LW, Maple Leafs
125. Dillon Dube, RW, Flames
126. Nick Paul, LW, Lightning
127. Brandon Montour, D, Panthers
128. Jaccob Slavin, D, Hurricanes
129. Ross Colton, C, Lightning
130. Corey Perry, RW, Lightning
131. Oliver Kylington, D, Flames
132. Martin Necas, RW, Hurricanes
133. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Capitals
134. Rickard Rakell, RW, Penguins
135. T.J. Oshie, RW, Capitals
136. Casey DeSmith, G, Penguins
137. Vitek Vanecek, G, Capitals
138. Ilya Samsonov, G, Capitals
139. Jacob Trouba, D, Rangers
140. Brandon Saad, LW, Blues
141. Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes*
142. Ryan Johansen, C, Predators
143. Adrian Kempe, LW, Kings
144. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Kings
145. Phillip Danault, C, Kings
146. Trevor Moore, LW, Kings
147. Mikael Granlund, C, Predators
148. Tanner Jeannot, RW, Predators
149. Cal Petersen, G, Kings
150. Jonathan Quick, G, Kings

On the bubble; Juuse Saros*, G, Predators; Colton Parayko, D, Blues; Frederick Gaudreau, C, Wild; Erik Haula, C, Bruins; Anthony Mantha, LW, Capitals; Mark Giordano, D, Maple Leafs; Tyler Seguin, C, Stars; Spencer Knight, G, Panthers; Jordan Binnington, G, Blues; Patric Hornqvist, RW, Panthers; Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning; Jake DeBrusk, LW, Bruins; Charlie Coyle, C, Bruins; Jamie Benn, LW, Stars; Ryan McDonagh, D, Lightning; Craig Smith, RW, Bruins; Jeff Carter, C, Penguins; Tristan Jarry, G, Penguins*; Dmitry Orlov, D, Capitals; Conor Sheary, RW, Capitals; Tyson Barrie, D, Oilers; Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Oilers*; Kailer Yamamoto, RW, Oilers

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Matt Larkin’s fantasy hockey top 150 playoff rankings: a tiered system

ARTICLE SPONSORED BY DAILY FACEOFF BRACKET CHALLENGE

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