Montréal Canadiens hold best odds in NHL Draft Lottery history

The Montréal Canadiens picked the Wright time to bottom out in the NHL standings.

Yes, the pain of finishing in 32nd place some 300 days after skating in the Stanley Cup Final is real, but the payoff is the Canadiens now hold the best odds in the history of the NHL Draft Lottery.

With the implementation of new Draft Lottery rules, the Habs will have an effective 25.5 percent shot at the No. 1 overall pick and projected selection Shane Wright when the ping pong balls are plucked at the NHL Network’s New Jersey studios on Tuesday night at 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, Sportsnet, TVA Sports).

The Canadiens are hosting the 2022 NHL Draft at Bell Centre on July 7-8.

The previous best odds for the last place finisher were 25 percent – from 2000 through 2014 – and it isn’t just the half percent boost that makes Tuesday advantageous for the Canadiens. From 2015 through 2020, the best odds available were 18.5 percent, and the Sabres won the rights to Owen Power in 2021 with the worst over the last few decades at just 16.6 percent with the arrival of the Seattle Kraken.

For most of the last two decades, it has always been more likely that last place team slides to No. 4 overall, with percentages ranging anywhere from 36 to 48 percent.

But the Canadiens cannot fall any lower than the No. 3 pick on Tuesday, as the rule changes announced last spring are implemented for the first time, which limits how far the worst finisher can fall.

The impetus for change came about after the league’s worst team tumbled to No. 4 three times in four years in 2017, 2019 and 2020.

There was no shortage of grumbling then about the lack of luck for the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings, all of whom fell three spots in the lottery.

The funny thing is, history might suggest that was the best thing to happen to them.

The Avalanche finished 21 points back of the 29th place team in 2017. They missed out on Nico Hischier, avoided Nolan Patrick – whose career appears to be in jeopardy after another injury-riddled season – and ended up with … Cale Makar in the No. 4 spot.

Yep, that Cale Makar, who leads the Stanley Cup playoffs by collecting more points (10) than the Predators scored goals (9) in the first round, and scored his 31st goal in 81 games this season on Monday.

It’s worked out quite well for the Avalanche, who also had the Senators’ first pick when they finished in last place in 2019, and also fell to No. 4 and selected Bowen Byram. (Still, No. 6 overall pick Moritz Seider may be the best selection in that Draft.)

Similarly, the Detroit Red Wings were not so quiet in their criticism of the Draft Lottery system, when the New York Rangers – who finished 40 points ahead of them and made the pandemic bubble play-in – leapt up to the No. 1 spot to select Alexis Lafreniere.

Two years later, Detroit’s No. 4 overall pick Lucas Raymond notched more points (57) in his rookie season than Lafreniere has posted (53) in two full NHL seasons.

Not bad.

So, it hasn’t worked out poorly for the teams in recent years that lost the Draft Lottery.

And it may not this year, either, with the question marks raised about Wright’s game in recent months. Our Daily Faceoff prospects guru Chris Peters was the first to raise that Logan Cooley may challenge Wright for the No. 1 pick, even though there appears to be a loose consensus among scouts for Wright.

By most accounts, though, Wright does not appear to be the franchise-altering player that many No. 1 picks have turned out to be.

So while that might take some of the excitement out of the proceedings for Montreal, the fact is they will be able to select a quality player in Round 1.

The NHL published odds listing the Canadiens at an 18.5 percent shot for the No. 1 overall pick, but with the removal of the 22nd to 16th place teams’ ability to win the No. 1 pick, and the removal of the third lottery draw, the Canadiens indeed have the best effective odds ever.

They just shouldn’t get too comfortable in the lottery position.

Also starting this year, moving forward teams will not be able to win the Draft Lottery more than two times in a five-year period.

Here are the effective 2022 NHL Draft Lottery odds, with thanks to Tankathon.com for the calculation:

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Montréal Canadiens hold best odds in NHL Draft Lottery history

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