NHL Best Player Prop Bets for Today (Jan. 23): Shots, Goals, Points & Saves
Friday’s NHL slate features eight games, providing a solid balance of opportunity and efficiency across the player prop board. Using the 5v5hockey.com Premium Betting Model we’ve identified the top player prop bets for Friday by targeting shots, goals, points, and saves where projected fair value continues to exceed current market pricing.
Below, you’ll find the model’s top player prop bets of the day, with each selection backed by data-driven projections, usage trends, and matchup context designed to help isolate value on a compact but actionable slate.
Shot Prop: Brent Burns Over 2.5 SOG (+138)
Burns Over 2.5 SOG worked as “Brock’s Lock” on Wednesday’s DFO Fantasy Show, so I might as well go back to the well on Friday. Burns has had 3+ SOG in seven straight games, averaging 3.7 SOG and 6.4 Shot Attempts per game in the process. The +138 line is great value, considering he’s hit this mark in 26 of 48 games (54.2% or -118) this season, and has seen a usage increase lately with Devon Toews sidelined. Tonight’s matchup vs. a stingy Flyers team isn’t ideal, but he’s averaged 6.3 shot attempts per game since Toews got hurt, so I still like his chances to get to 3+ SOG, and the matchup is more than baked into the odds at +138.
Goal Prop: Auston Matthews Over 0.5 Goals (+124)
Matthews has returned to form in January, leading all players with 10 goals this month. He’s scored at least one goal in seven of his last 11 games (63.6% or -175), including scoring in Vegas last Thursday. That game ended 6-5, so tonight could be another high-scoring affair, creating a great game environment for Matthews to light the lamp for the 26th time this season. Plus, his buddy Mitch Marner makes his return to Toronto tonight, so there’s a little narrative motivation at play as well.
Point Prop: Dougie Hamilton Over 0.5 Points (+105)
Hamilton went from healthy scratch and possible trade candidate to PP1 QB in no time. With Luke Hughes out, Hamilton has found himself back on the top unit for the Devils and enters Friday on a six-game point streak (7A) and has a point in seven of his last nine games (77.8% or -351). On top of being red-hot, Hamilton has a great matchup on Friday. The Devils are in Vancouver to take on a Canucks team that has given up 4.3 GA/60 over their last 10 games, the second-most in the NHL during that time. They also have the second-worst xGA/60 (3.85) over their last 10 games, so they are bleeding chances against right now.