NHL betting preview (Dec. 27): Wild vs. Stars odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s Central Division matchup between the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars.
Wild vs. Stars Odds
- Minnesota Wild Moneyline: +182
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: -204
- Puck Line: Wild +1.5 (-152), Stars -1.5 (+134)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -111, Under -101)
Game odds via Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Wild (21-14 SU, 16-19 ATS, 15-18-2 O/U)
Minnesota Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov will not play against the Dallas Stars on Friday, the team announced. This is a huge blow for Minnesota, as Kaprizov is the current favorite to win the Hart Trophy (MVP), with 23 goals and 27 assists in 34 games this season. The Wild are 10-15 straight up without Kaprizov in the lineup all-time.
Forward Joel Eriksson Ek, who is still rehabbing a lower-body injury, also did not travel with the team. In other words, Minnesota is missing its best offensive forward and its best defensive forward. Thankfully for the Wild, starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson returned from injury just in time to halt a four-game slide heading into the holiday break. The Wild had lost six of eight games heading into their Dec. 23 matchup versus the Chicago Blackhawks but managed to eke out a 4-3 win at home.
Per Evolving Hockey, Gustavsson heads into Friday’s game ranked eighth in save percentage and 11th in goals saved above expected. The 26-year-old will make his second consecutive start since returning from a four-game absence. Gustavsson has played well against the Stars, with a goals against average of 2.00 and a save percentage of .943 in three games against Dallas since joining the Wild, but has a 1-2 record in those games.
Handicapping the Stars (20-13 SU, 14-19 ATS, 11-19-3 O/U)
Dallas has owned this matchup in recent seasons, going 8-1-3 against Minnesota since the start of the 2021-22 regular season. However, the odds have moved significantly since it was announced that Kaprizov would not be suiting up for the Wild. The Stars originally opened as a -164 moneyline favorite at Pinnacle but have since moved to -204. That said, I don’t know if the odds have moved enough. Few players are as important to their team’s success as Kaprizov is to the Wild.
Jake Oettinger has been outstanding against Minnesota, boasting a 6-0-1 record with a 2.30 GAA and a .917 Sv% in nine career games. Remarkably, he has allowed one goal or fewer in four of his last five starts against the Wild. While Gustavsson has been impressive, Oettinger has been nearly unbeatable. Minnesota faces an even tougher challenge now, given the absence of their most dynamic offensive player.
The Stars haven’t been at their best lately, going 4-5 straight up in their last nine games, and they’ve struggled to cover the puck line as often as expected for a team of their caliber. However, they’ve won seven straight against Minnesota. While they didn’t cover the puck line in their 2-1 win over the Wild on Nov. 16, Kaprizov’s absence increases the likelihood they will, as they did in the five prior meetings.
Best bets for Wild vs. Stars
- Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 (+136) at Pinnacle
Although Dallas has only covered the puck line twice in its last 10 games, the Stars managed to do so in 12 of their first 23. Recent form matters, but I’m confident Dallas will win Friday’s game by multiple goals more than 50 percent of the time, especially considering how few goals Minnesota has been scoring. Since Dec. 1, the Wild rank as the 10th-worst team in goals per 60 minutes, while Dallas is among the top 10 offensively. Without Kaprizov, that gap is likely to widen even further.