NHL betting preview (Nov. 21): Golden Knights vs. Senators odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Ottawa Senators.
Golden Knights vs. Senators Odds
- Golden Knights Moneyline: +135
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -160
- Puck Line: Golden Knights +1.5 (-185), Ottawa Senators +1.5 (+150)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Vegas Golden Knights (11-8 SU, 10-9 ATS, 13-5-1 O/U)
Vegas was shut out for the first time this season on Wednesday in Toronto, losing 3-0 to the Maple Leafs. It was also the first time they failed to score at least two goals and only the fourth time they fell short of three.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Golden Knights controlled 55 percent of the shot attempts and outshot the Maple Leafs 31-26, but Toronto nearly doubled Vegas in expected goals due to poor shot selection. Vegas generated just eight high-danger chances, an unusual drop-off for a team that ranks among the top five in high-danger chances per 60 minutes this November.
The Golden Knights rank fourth in goals per 60 minutes, and history suggests their offense should rebound against the Senators on Thursday. Vegas has scored more goals per game (4.23) against Ottawa than against any other team and has won nine of the past 10 meetings, including a 6-4 win at home on Oct. 25.
However, Vegas has struggled defensively. Evolving Hockey ranks them in the bottom five for expected goals against and bottom 10 in shot attempts against at five-on-five. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s expected starter, Ilya Samsonov, has allowed 13 goals over his last three starts despite starting the season strong. That said, Samsonov holds a 5-2 career record versus Ottawa, and while he might be disappointed that he didn’t start versus his former club on Wednesday, the 27-year-old is relishing the opportunity to get revenge against Linus Ullmark.
Handicapping the Ottawa Senators (8-10 SU, 9-9 ATS, 7-9-2 O/U)
Ottawa started the season 5-4 in October, briefly holding fourth place in the Atlantic Division, but November has been a different story. The Senators are 3-6 this month and enter Thursday’s game on a three-game losing streak. Despite a solid home record in recent seasons, this matchup has rarely gone in their favor.
The Senators were the league’s third-best offense in October, averaging 4.21 goals per 60 minutes, but they dropped to third-worst in November, managing just 2.09. This decline aligns with Evolving Hockey’s model, which ranked Ottawa’s offense 29th in October. The Senators have improved defensively, ranking third in expected goals against at five-on-five, but they’ve allowed four or more goals in seven of their last 11 games—all losses.
Goaltender Linus Ullmark has been inconsistent, allowing four or more goals in five starts this season while holding opponents to two or fewer in five others. His recent performances illustrate this volatility, with back-to-back five-goal outings followed by stellar showings against Toronto and Boston.
Best Bets for Golden Knights vs. Senators
Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (+135) at Sports Interaction
Despite concerns about their defense and goaltending, the Golden Knights’ moneyline odds offer strong value. Ottawa’s five-on-five metrics are solid, but the team hasn’t proven worthy of a -160 price tag against a top-tier opponent like Vegas.
Brady Tkachuk Over 4 Shots On Goal (-105) at BetVictor
Brady Tkachuk leads Ottawa with 74 shots on goal this season, 27 more than the next-highest player. He’s hit four or more shots in 11 of 18 games, including standout performances against strong defensive teams like Carolina. Given Vegas’s 23rd rank in shot attempts against, this matchup favors Tkachuk. BetVictor offers a four-shot total with the over at -105 odds. You won’t win this bet as much as you would betting on him to register over 3.5 shots on goal at -155 odds, but it’s a fair trade-off for better value on this particular player prop.