NHL betting preview (May 26): Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4 odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps Monday’s NHL playoff matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers.
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4 Odds
- Hurricanes Moneyline: +160
- Panthers Moneyline: -189
- Puck Line: Hurricanes +1.5 (-160), Panthers -1.5 (+140)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Game odds via Sports Interaction. Get Daily Faceoff’s Sports Interaction bonus code here!
Carolina Hurricanes
It’s becoming quite apparent that head coach Rod Brind’Amour and the Hurricanes have no answers for a Florida Panthers side that looks to be one of few salary cap era dynasties.
Brind’Amour called out his top stars after another disappointing performance in Game 3, stating that Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook can’t be the team’s best players every night. It’s a particularly concerning statement given that even Staal’s line has been outscored in the series and has not looked overly effective.
The Panthers continue to generate turnovers in key areas of the ice and create ultra-dangerous scoring chances before the Hurricanes can reset as a result. Carolina has had a difficult time limiting the Panthers to the type of chances that are ever likely to be saved, which has made Frederik Andersen (and Pyotr Kochetkov) look quite average in goal.
While the Hurricanes defensive core was already struggling to move the puck entering Game 3, it certainly did not help matters that one of their best puck-movers, Sean Walker, was unable to play due to injury.
Walker and Jalen Chatfield are both considered doubtful to play in Monday’s matchup, leaving the Hurricanes with a much less convincing blue line than we have seen throughout the rest of the playoffs.
Even though the Hurricanes’ offensive play generally tends to overrated to some extent by public expected goals models, they still hold just a 46.2% expected goal share and have generated only 2.42 xGF/60 in the series.
Florida Panthers
After the Panthers’ series with the Tampa Bay Lightning, it was Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point taking heat in the media for their unproductive play. Then it was the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top stars who were ripped to shreds for a lack of production at the end of Round 2. Now it’s Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov who have failed to produce anything versus the Panthers.
Aleksander Barkov is the best defensive forward in the game, and Gustav Forsling is among the best shutdown defenders in the league, and their units are a big reason the team has been able to shut down opposing star players. However, the other three forward lines and two defensive pairings have also been excellent, and the Panthers simply look like a team without any weak links right now.
The obvious theme is that three sets of high-end superstars have been rendered fairly ineffective by a historically strong defensive side in the Panthers.
Given the talent inside the team’s top six, it almost does not feel fair that the Panthers’ third line of Brad Marchand, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell has been arguably the best line in the league this postseason. They have outscored opponents 10-2 this postseason, and scored 4.29 goals per 60.
Florida will be shorthanded on Monday night, though, as Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola, and A.J. Greer will all be out due to injuries.
Dating back to Game 4 of the second round, Sergei Bobrovsky has been razor-sharp and now holds a +6.7 GSAx and .911 save percentage this postseason. Bobrovsky is priced at +200 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, behind only Connor McDavid, who certainly will have a chance of winning it once again even if the Edmonton Oilers do not win the Stanley Cup.
Best bet for Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4
Florida Panthers -1.5: +140 at Sports Interaction
From an effort standpoint, the Hurricanes seemed to give it everything they had in Game 3 but were once again outclassed by a Panthers side that has beaten them in seven straight Conference Finals matchups.
The Panthers’ stars have outperformed the Hurricanes’ top skaters, while their depth players have been significantly better. Bobrovsky hasn’t been asked to handle an overly difficult workload, but he has been excellent when needed and looks to offer a huge edge in goal.
There does appear to be much reason to be contrarian and back the Hurricanes in this spot, even though they are a significantly larger underdog in tonight’s matchup than they were in Game 3.
This also looks to be a specifically good time to take the longer price to back the Panthers to cover the puck line, as once Florida has earned leads in this series and forced Carolina to push for offense, it has been able to catch the Hurricanes out of position and build upon the lead.